2 instances on one random event

[Magical Realist]

Take the flipping of a coin for instance. If I stop myself from flipping the coin and instead wait 5 seconds and flip it then, will it be the same as what it would have been had I flipped it 5 seconds before? If not, what has changed in the conditions making the flip any different? If so, isn't that flip somehow predestined to happen in some sense? Suppose I wait one hour, one day, or one year? How could we decide something like this?

 

[Syne]

The cumulative results approach the probability. The next flip can be anything (even an improbably long string of tails), so long as a large enough sample of flips is observed to approach the probability. Nothing need change in the conditions, as a single result can never be predicted and thus never known whether it corresponds with some expectation at a different time. The probability is the only expectation, and that only applies to large enough samples of flips.

 

[Read-Only]

Take the flipping of a coin for instance. If I stop myself from flipping the coin and instead wait 5 seconds and flip it then, will it be the same as what it would have been had I flipped it 5 seconds before? If not, what has changed in the conditions making the flip any different? If so, isn't that flip somehow predestined to happen in some sense? Suppose I wait one hour, one day, or one year? How could we decide something like this?

There is NO way. Each and every flip is totally independent of ALL other flips. The odds are still 50/50 if you wait 1 second or one hundred years.

Edited to add: There is NO such thing as "predestination" in a series of coin flips OR anything else, for that matter. That's nothing more than faulty wishful thinking.

 

[Baldeee]

Take the flipping of a coin for instance. If I stop myself from flipping the coin and instead wait 5 seconds and flip it then, will it be the same as what it would have been had I flipped it 5 seconds before? If not, what has changed in the conditions making the flip any different? If so, isn't that flip somehow predestined to happen in some sense? Suppose I wait one hour, one day, or one year? How could we decide something like this?

Are you talking about utter randomness, or merely the appearance of randomness through hidden variables?
I ask as I am not sure the toss of a coin is truly random.
It appears so due to the hidden variables and inability by us to predict.
But it may be predictable if sufficient knowledge is available.
And the distinction may be pertinent.

To give a response assuming you refer to the appearance of randomness through hidden variables:
The conditions that might have changed would be among the hidden variables.
As long as they remain hidden it is not possible to know what has changed.
It could be the starting position of the coin, the strength of the toss, the air currents etc.

 

[Read-Only]

Are you talking about utter randomness, or merely the appearance of randomness through hidden variables?
I ask as I am not sure the toss of a coin is truly random.
It appears so due to the hidden variables and inability by us to predict.
But it may be predictable if sufficient knowledge is available.
And the distinction may be pertinent.

To give a response assuming you refer to the appearance of randomness through hidden variables:
The conditions that might have changed would be among the hidden variables.
As long as they remain hidden it is not possible to know what has changed.
It could be the starting position of the coin, the strength of the toss, the air currents etc.

Irrelevant. For a question of this type complete (unloaded) randomness is required so this post is not needed.

 

[Baldeee]

Irrelevant. For a question of this type complete (unloaded) randomness is required so this post is not needed.

Perhaps the person who posted the OP might care to say whether they find it relevant or not.
You otherwise appear to be assuming that a coin toss is utterly random.
Rather than merely unpredictable while adhering to a probability function.

Since others have answered already with regard such an assumption, I offered a response should the OP be considering the mere appearance of randomness.

Although your view, however presumptive, is duly noted.

 

[C C]

Take the flipping of a coin for instance. If I stop myself from flipping the coin and instead wait 5 seconds and flip it then, will it be the same as what it would have been had I flipped it 5 seconds before?

Depends on whether or not that interruption interval alters your flipping technique slightly, modifies which side of the coin you start with, etc.

Everyone knows the flip of a coin is a 50-50 proposition. Only it's not. You can beat the odds. [...] Researchers determined that a coin is more likely to land facing the same side on which it started. If tails is facing up when the coin is perched on your thumb, it is more likely to land tails up. [...] How much more likely? At least 51 percent of the time, the researchers claim, and possibly as much as 55 percent to 60 percent -- depending on the flipping motion of the individual. [...] The longer the side facing up stays facing up, the better chance it will land that way. "Some people flip in a more biased way than others," Holmes said. "There's always bias to the side that's facing up, and the variance depends on the motion of the flipper."
http://phys.org/news175267656.html​

But the disruption of 5 seconds might have as rare or negligible an effect on changing the outcome for the next flip as icing the kicker does in football, regarding successful or missed field goals (according to some studies). Especially since five seconds is hardly enough time to cause fidgeting of hand and coin due to boredom / distraction.

 

[Syne]

Local hidden variables can only reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics if you assume superdeterminism, in which case you have no real choice in whether to wait to flip the coin or not.

 

[Motor Daddy]

Take the flipping of a coin for instance. If I stop myself from flipping the coin and instead wait 5 seconds and flip it then, will it be the same as what it would have been had I flipped it 5 seconds before? If not, what has changed in the conditions making the flip any different? If so, isn't that flip somehow predestined to happen in some sense? Suppose I wait one hour, one day, or one year? How could we decide something like this?

Same what, same time? No, the time will be 5 seconds later if you wait the 5 seconds. Same temperature? Probably not. Usually the temperature is changing over time so for any two points in time the temperature is different if the temperature is changing. Same energy level of the flipper? No. The flipper got more tired in the 5 seconds. The flipper got 5 seconds older in those 5 seconds. The earth rotated about its axis for 5 seconds, and in the same 5 seconds the earth partially orbited the sun as the sun traveled along in space all the while the universe was expanding, the clouds were increasing and traveling west for the first 3 seconds and then changed direction of travel for the next second to heading NNW, and the last second the direction changed to N. The velocity of the wind changed from 32.17 MPH to 46.33 MPH during the 5 seconds. The sun and the moon changed positions in the 5 seconds, and for all we know the flip time could have been in two different calendar years. For instance, say for example you are at a New Years Eve party and you've been partaking in a little adult beverage consumption and things are not quite as they seem. You are playing pool and you can't decide if you want to shoot the double bank shot on the eight ball, or slice it in and risk scratching, which is one hell of a slice by the way! You decide to flip for it. The early flip would have occurred 2 seconds before midnight, and the later flip would have occurred 3 second into the New Year!

The moral of the story is:

Have a Happy New Year!

 

[wellwisher]

The cumulative results approach the probability. The next flip can be anything (even an improbably long string of tails), so long as a large enough sample of flips is observed to approach the probability. Nothing need change in the conditions, as a single result can never be predicted and thus never known whether it corresponds with some expectation at a different time. The probability is the only expectation, and that only applies to large enough samples of flips.

If we keep flipping a coin, over enough time, it will average half heads and half tails. Let us assume that and start an experiment. Say as we flip the coin, we find that we have accumulated extra heads at beginning of the experiment. This means the future odds will now need to shift toward more tails to get the final 50/50. The timing later in the experiment will provides more tails. If not we would disprove 50/50.

Random can build potential within time, to create the balance needed to maintain the odds. If the slot machine does not pay off many days, it will be due. Card counting sort of does this by eliminating random that already happened so one knows what now has to happen to maintain the odds. It speeds the process up by removing cards.

 

[Syne]

Just because a probability shows one outcome is "due" does not mean that the probability will resolve within any reasonable finite time period or number of flips. So one outcome could continue to be "due" indefinitely.

 

[Cyperium]

Take the flipping of a coin for instance. If I stop myself from flipping the coin and instead wait 5 seconds and flip it then, will it be the same as what it would have been had I flipped it 5 seconds before? If not, what has changed in the conditions making the flip any different? If so, isn't that flip somehow predestined to happen in some sense? Suppose I wait one hour, one day, or one year? How could we decide something like this?

The whole world changed as you waited, the way you would flip the coin changed as you can't be that accurate from one time to another, basically what changed from one time to another was the same amount of change as flipping the coin two executive times.

 

[Magical Realist]

Same what, same time? No, the time will be 5 seconds later if you wait the 5 seconds. Same temperature? Probably not. Usually the temperature is changing over time so for any two points in time the temperature is different if the temperature is changing. Same energy level of the flipper? No. The flipper got more tired in the 5 seconds. The flipper got 5 seconds older in those 5 seconds. The earth rotated about its axis for 5 seconds, and in the same 5 seconds the earth partially orbited the sun as the sun traveled along in space all the while the universe was expanding, the clouds were increasing and traveling west for the first 3 seconds and then changed direction of travel for the next second to heading NNW, and the last second the direction changed to N. The velocity of the wind changed from 32.17 MPH to 46.33 MPH during the 5 seconds. The sun and the moon changed positions in the 5 seconds, and for all we know the flip time could have been in two different calendar years. For instance, say for example you are at a New Years Eve party and you've been partaking in a little adult beverage consumption and things are not quite as they seem. You are playing pool and you can't decide if you want to shoot the double bank shot on the eight ball, or slice it in and risk scratching, which is one hell of a slice by the way! You decide to flip for it. The early flip would have occurred 2 seconds before midnight, and the later flip would have occurred 3 second into the New Year!

The moral of the story is:

Have a Happy New Year!

Ingenious post! Tks and happy 2014!

 

[Magical Realist]

The whole world changed as you waited, the way you would flip the coin changed as you can't be that accurate from one time to another, basically what changed from one time to another was the same amount of change as flipping the coin two executive times.

Good point. But there's a problem. To the extent that the toss is determined, it will be different. To the extent therefore that is undetermined, it is indeterminate. What are the factors causing one truly random or indeterminate event to be different? Is there an inherent novelty in time itself such that random events truly never repeat?

 

[Syne]

Good point. But there's a problem. To the extent that the toss is determined, it will be different. To the extent therefore that is undetermined, it is indeterminate. What are the factors causing one truly random or indeterminate event to be different? Is there an inherent novelty in time itself such that random events truly never repeat?

Random events have little to do with whether a result repeats. Like I said earlier, you could easily have an improbably long string of tails that may make you think it is not random but is not wholly precluded from a sample of random results. Time is not a factor, as a random result will have the same probability regardless of time. Here is a good reference on Bayesian probability that addresses coin flipping:

It's not at all easy to define the concept of probability. If you ask most people, a coin has probability 1/2 to land heads up if when you flip it a large number of times, it lands heads up close to half the time. But this is fatally vague!

After all what counts as a "large number" of times? And what does "close to half" mean? If we don't define these concepts precisely, the above definition is useless for actually deciding when a coin has probability 1/2 to land heads up!

Say we start flipping a coin and it keeps landing heads up, as in the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead by Tom Stoppard. How many times does it need to land heads up before we decide that this is not happening with probability 1/2? Five? Ten? A thousand? A million?

This question has no good answer. There's no definite point at which we become sure the probability is something other than 1/2. Instead, we gradually become convinced that the probability is higher. It seems ever more likely that something is amiss. But, at any point we could turn out to be wrong. We could have been the victims of an improbable fluke. - http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/bayes.html​

 

[Yazata]

I think that I'm inclined to agree with Baldeee.

Are you talking about utter randomness, or merely the appearance of randomness through hidden variables?

I ask as I am not sure the toss of a coin is truly random.

The dynamics of coin-flips certainly involve physical causation. The heads/tails result of any particular flip is going to be a function of lots of variables. Those include how high one flips the coin, the nature of its parabolic trajectory, the nature of its rotation as it traverses its ballistic path, its position and motions as it strikes the floor, how it subsequently bounces, and so on. All kinds of forces and motions will be involved.

It appears so due to the hidden variables and inability by us to predict.
But it may be predictable if sufficient knowledge is available.
And the distinction may be pertinent.

Sure. If all of the countless variables could be measured to the necessary accuracy, which might not even be possible if the dynamics of coin flips is 'chaotic' (something I don't know), and if the necessary calculations could all be completed before the coin finally comes to rest, then the results of flipping coins might be entirely predictable. If the same conditions could somehow be duplicated for each and every flip, then presumably all the flips would land either heads or tails.

What makes the results of coin-flipping approximate statistical randomness is that the results of flipping coins seems to be dependent on very small differences in the physical variables and that those differences can't really be measured, calculated or controlled.

To give a response assuming you refer to the appearance of randomness through hidden variables:
The conditions that might have changed would be among the hidden variables.
As long as they remain hidden it is not possible to know what has changed.
It could be the starting position of the coin, the strength of the toss, the air currents etc.

Yeah, I think that I agree.

 

[Syne]

Again, hidden variables require superdeterminism, rendering meaningless any notion of "what would have happened if...".

 

[Cyperium]

Good point. But there's a problem. To the extent that the toss is determined, it will be different. To the extent therefore that is undetermined, it is indeterminate. What are the factors causing one truly random or indeterminate event to be different? Is there an inherent novelty in time itself such that random events truly never repeat?

There is inherent novelty of random events in the quantum scale so that the conditions between two events can be exactly the same yet produce a different result (unless the hidden variables theory is true), however the coin toss doesn't belong to that as it is on a much larger scale where quantum effects are simply out of the question. You could train yourself to toss a coin to end up heads or tails, just start with a not so high toss and not so many revolutions, then you can perfect that so that it looks like you tossed it randomly, yet it was determined by you. You could do the same with pretty much any large scale "random" event, like counting cards, it's harder with dices as they roll around the table instead of staying put when they land though, but the scale is large enough so that there isn't inherent randomness involved (as is the case with radiation, and the properties of electrons).

Computers usually use time (milliseconds since midnight) in order to achieve randomness, basically you could get the result you want by waiting until the specific time (usually to an accuracy of milliseconds) where the randomness function always give that result.

But if we get back to the point of coin tossing, if you are unaware of how to toss it so that it comes out a certain way then it is of course random - to you, and the differing results from time to time is because the way to the result is too complex and the variables of that complexity changes over time in such a way that if you wait to toss then it would be different from the toss if you didn't wait, it will also be different from if you toss it and then toss it again since the initial conditions would have changed by simply doing anything you didn't do before (like tossing a coin, or simply maneuvering your hands or body differently). If we train ourselves to toss a coin so that it lands in a certain way then that is simply a way for us to recognise and set up the initial conditions.

 

[Dazz]

Good point. But there's a problem. To the extent that the toss is determined, it will be different. To the extent therefore that is undetermined, it is indeterminate. What are the factors causing one truly random or indeterminate event to be different? Is there an inherent novelty in time itself such that random events truly never repeat?

Repeated events are not the same.
Randomness or indeterminism aside, if a coin falls on the ground twice, on the same place giving the same results, those two events were different regardless of any hidden factor or variables.

 

[Mathers2013]

I believe the result will be the same as if you had not waited, given that time(s) seems to be the factor by which mathematics is measured against:

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