- Believers aren't really skeptics. They are selective doubters. They favour a particular worldview, which they uncritically defend.
The key word here is "uncritically". Notice how so few of Trump's supporters have ever bothered to try to gather actual
evidence of widespread electoral fraud. Moreover, in the various law suits brought on Trump's behalf to try to overturn the collective will of the American people, for the most part the plaintiffs have
not alleged widespread fraud. That is because the Republican
lawyers (Giuliani excepted, of course) know that there is insufficient evidence to support those allegations. Hence, the lawsuits have tended to focus on minor procedural details for the most part, and even there they have been unsuccessful.
The Believers in the grand liberal conspiracy, rather than accepting that the evidence doesn't stack up in their favour, instead prefer the worldview in which the liberal "establishment" is cleverly acting in concert with the fraudulent Democrats, to support the false election result. This would appear to be a difficult idea to sustain, since many of the judges hearing the cases have been Trump appointees (or, more generally, Republican appointees), as have a few Republicans who have had enough integrity to uphold the truth (e.g. the Republican Raffensperger in Georgia). But if something doesn't fit the conspiracy narrative, it can't be allowed to stand, if you're a Believer; rather, "alternative facts" are needed - or the old standby that anybody who doesn't agree with you is secretly working for "Them".
- Believers tend to think that elites are omnipotent - e.g. the government can, in utter secrecy, influence the flow of information to such an extent that it can "cover up" massive conspiracies of misinformation such as the existence of UFOs, the non-reality of climate change, that the US government brought down the World Trade Center, or the danger of vaccines to children.
In this case, the Trumpian bogeyman is the "liberal elites", which would include most of the people who support the Democrats, along with the entirety of the elected Democrat representatives, past and present. The Believers accept that these people are clever enough to steal the election from under the Republicans' noses, leaving no trace of their illegal manoeuvers.
- Believers tend to be low in trust of other people. This makes them more likely to believe that other people are colluding against them.
Trumpism is based on fear. Fear of the "other" is a typical fear stoked by autocrats and would-be autocrats everywhere, and it has served Trump well. Trump Republicans cling desperately to their guns, believing that, when push comes to shove, they only have themselves to rely on.
- Believers tend to be political cynics. That is, they are more inclined to think that politicians are liars, and that politics is a process for elites that is removed from the "common man".
The genius of Trump is that he has somehow managed to convince his base that he is "draining the swamp", rather than trying to make it more comfortable for himself and his cronies (which is the reality). While Trump pardons his convicted fraudster buddies, the Republican base look the other way, believing the the evil "liberal elites" are the only ones who have something to gain from being in power.
- Believers tend to believe that most people can be "bought off" so as to act dishonestly or to support a conspiracy. This is tied to their general lack of trust, especially in "the establishment".
Again, the genius of Trump is that he has somehow managed to present an illusion to his followers that he is not part of "the establishment". It follows, or so the Believer thinking goes, that Trump is to be trusted implicitly, because "the establishment" is Them, and They are evil. This
also requires a deliberate disregard for readily-available facts, of course.
- Believers tend to think that random occurrences are actually intended by somebody.
Take the state of Georgia, for instance. Historically, it has been a "red state". In the election just gone - and possibly in the senate run-off to come - a number of factors have led to it turning "blue". In reality, that is unlikely to be a random fluctuation, a statistical fluke, and in that case there certainly were many people trying to make it happen. But the belief that the state could only have "flipped" due to massive coordinated fraud has no basis in fact. Meanwhile, of course, the Trump Believers look the other way as evidence comes out that Trump deliberately tried to subvert the will of the Georgian voters by bullying state representatives to oops magically "find" an extra 11000 votes for Trump.
- Believes tend to ignore complex causes, instead putting things down to overarching control by the omnipotent elites. Given the choice between a complex web of causes and a seemingly-simple explanation involving a conspiracy of powerful elites, believers will opt for the conspiracy theory most of the time.
People vote one way or the other for many different reasons. When it comes to an election, polls of various kinds can give some insight into likely reasons why a district or state went to one party or the other, but people are individuals who are not reducible to stereotypes.
It is obviously much easier for Trump Believers to put Democrat wins (e.g. in Georgia or Arizona) down to the Conspiracy, rather than trying to pick through the complex actual causes. Conspiracists are nothing if not lazy in their beliefs.
- Believers tend to think that people behave in certain ways because they have certain objectives (aligned with the conspiracy, typically), and/or personality traits (untrustworthiness, seeking to enrich or empower themselves). Believers downplay the importance of situational factors and chance in how people act.
This practically speaks for itself. That Trump conspiracists routinely characterise Democrats as having conspiratorial objectives and untrustworthy personality traits should go without saying.
- Believers tend to be imaginative and prone to fantasising.
I'll wager that there are more Republican believers in the ridiculous QAnon conspiracy theory than there are Democrats, which should be obvious since the theory explicitly posits the existence of evil Democrats who drink baby blood in pizza parlour basements. If the Trumpian "stolen election" fantasy doesn't push one's buttons, a more bizarre and extreme conspiracy theory like QAnon might well do the trick. Besides, if you accept one conspiracy theory (it doesn't matter much which one), you're far more likely to accept many others as well.
- If you believe that the world is full of malice and planning instead of circumstance and coincidence, you are more likely to buy into belief in a conspiracy theory. And once you believe in one, you're far more likely to believe in others.
Like I said.
- Believers are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories that actually contradict one another than to accept a straightforward explanation. For example, the more you believe that Princess Diana faked her own death, you more likely you are believe that, if she didn't fake her own death, then she was probably murdered.
The spectacle of Trump supporters in different states calling
at the same time for the election supervisors to "count all the votes" and to "stop the count", depending on whether Trump had won the state according to the official count, is an obvious contradiction, though not one that seems to bother the typical Trump supporter.
- A study showed that "The strongest predictor of belief in an entirely fictitious conspiracy theory was belief in other real-world conspiracy theories."
No comment.
- Believers feel alienated from mainstream society. They don't trust the government or the media.
Again, the genius of Trump. He managed to turn "fake news" into an attack on legitimate media sources. Since his conspiracist base
already distrusts perceived elites (which includes most the fact-based mainstream media), it was easy for Trump to stoke the flames. At the same time, there's that double-think of the Trumpian somehow managing to believe that "the media" had the power while Trump himself was not "the government" and was an "outsider".
- Believers concentrate on finding "holes" in official explanations. However, they do not look for holes in the "alternative" (conspiracy theory) explanations, tending instead to accept them at face value.
I've written enough on this above. Never mind that the vote counts have been shown to be overwhelmingly fair, probably making the recent election results among the most reliable in US history. Trumpians will continue to allege widespread fraud, without ever requiring any evidence of it.
- Conspiracy believers are the ultimate motivated skeptics. Their curse is that they apply this selective scrutiny not to the left or right, but to the mainstream. They tell themselves that they’re the ones who see the lies, and the rest of us are sheep. But believing that everybody’s lying is just another kind of gullibility.
A political motivation is a very strong motivation. American politics at the present time is very much tied up with identity politics. Trump supporters are people who live fearful lives. They fear their fellow Americans. They fear their own government. Their fear motivates them to believe a web of comforting lies.
