Prognostication: GOP settling on inevitability of Romney ticket Republican leaders are trying to craft, or, perhaps, simply encourage an emerging narrative that suggests the primary contests are essentially over, and the rest of the season is for show. Brad Knickerbocker explains: “Romney is still a long way from the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, but he is the only candidate on pace to reach the magic number before the party's national convention in August,” the AP reports. “At their current rates, Santorum and Gingrich won't reach even half the number needed.” Other prominent news outlets have come to the same conclusion. “Romney Has Quietly Won the Numbers Game,” announces a piece in Barron’s. In Politico, it’s “Mitt Romney's delegate math begins to add up.” There are several reasons for this: Romney’s dominant campaign war chest, his superior organization, and the schedule of primaries and caucuses yet to be held. "It’s Romney’s to lose," says Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina, who has yet to endorse a Republican challenger to Barack Obama. "He has almost a third of the delegates he needs," Graham said on Sunday on ABC's "This Week". "Mathematically, Rick [Santorum] would have to win 75 percent of what remains. He’s done an outstanding job, Rick has, of starting with almost nothing and being a real contender, and Newt’s come back from the dead two or three times. But mathematically, this thing is about over." It is easy enough to read that writing on the wall; indeed, the math seems to favor Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor's opponents, by this narrative, will fight to forestall Romney's "magic number" victory of 1,144 delegates in hopes of forcing a brokered convention. Rick Santorum argued this weekend that the "numbers are going to change dramatically". Newt Gingrich suggested that the GOP Convention in Tampa this year "may end up being one of the most surprising in modern times". The overarching narrative is important to Republican Party officials; with Mississippi and Alabama leading the delegate counts for this week's contests, the question at hand is whether or not Mitt Romney can win a southern state. Without victories in the southern states this week, Romney cannot deliver the proverbial knockout punch. He won't be blanked on Tuesday, but for now he looks positioned to snag around thirty of the one hundred twenty-nine delegates at stake. With Missouri's caucus on March 17, the question is whether Rick Santorum's "beauty contest" win will get him anything; the weekend could still see Romney losing ground. The math of counting delegates might well favor Romney, but neither should there be any question of why the GOP wants people to start accepting that the nomination fight is over. What started out with the appearance of an intriguing strategy—show the voters an intimately detailed look at the nomination process in order to dominate the news cycle and thus control the broader political narrative—has become a nightmare for conservatives, a menagerie parading around the country embarrassing the political identity. It's like a Super League of Goofballs: Robo-Mitt, Captain Spatter, Solomon Gingrich, Liberty Belfry all beating the hell out of each other in order to claim the right to challenge the evil villain that haunts all good conservatives—the Kenyan Lantern. Between Romney's clumsy appeals to conservatives that only alienate him from the crossover, Santorum's theocratic ramblings that only alienate him from women, Gingrich's bombastic hypocrisy that only alienates him from any but the most ardent Newtites, and Paul's fake libertarianism alienating him from women, minorities, and thinking people in general, the Republican Party obviously sees the benefit in bringing this four-ring circus to a close. Although, for what it's worth, a non-scientific (reader) poll at The State Column favors Ron Paul; of over 102,700 votes, seventy-three percent think Ron Paul will win the nomination. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! I suppose, in the end, the difference between what people want and what is real will be resolved eventually, but one wonders at the notion that Paul will win the nomination. ____________________ Notes: Knickerbocker, Brad. "GOP presidential race seems close, but Mitt Romney has the numbers". The Christian Science Monitor. March 11, 2012. CSMonitor.com. March 11, 2012. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Electi...e-seems-close-but-Mitt-Romney-has-the-numbers The State Column. "Sarah Palin blasts Obama for accepting Bill Maher’s donation". March 11, 2012. TheStateColumn.com. March 11, 2012. http://www.thestatecolumn.com/artic...sts-obama-for-accepting-bill-mahers-donation/
