Will the Singularity happen?

Discussion in 'Intelligence & Machines' started by francois, Oct 5, 2010.

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Will the Singularity happen?

  1. Probably

    23 vote(s)
    60.5%
  2. No

    9 vote(s)
    23.7%
  3. I don't know, man

    6 vote(s)
    15.8%
  1. francois Schwat? Registered Senior Member

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    My point is that they're the ones who are inheriting the earth. There are like three billion Indians and Chinese who are rapidly industrializing. Neither of us would consider them complacent.

    I read something about the Chinese producing 80% of the world's thin-film photovoltaics, though it's all American technology. They're certainly a force, though I'm not sure how innovative they are.
     
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  3. SolusCado Registered Senior Member

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    Again, I think we are hovering around the definition of "life". From my understanding, the "singularity" refers to artificial intelligence - not necessarily "life". With that said, I would expect different forms of life entities to develop within different ecosystems - just as we see on Earth. Just because you don't see fish flopping around on land anywhere doesn't mean they don't exist. Similarly, just because you don't see - oh, let's say silicon-based life forms - here on Earth (or do we? I can't remember what all was discovered around those magma vents in the ocean), doesn't mean they don't exist on other planets, in other star systems, etc. To limit our expectations based on what we have experienced so far seems to be the one area where humanity has continued to show its own idiocy for millenia. If there is ANYTHING we have learned from the slow march of scientific discovery, it should be to expect ... well, ANYTHING.

    But anyway - back to the singularity, and AI... I don't think you need to recognize it as life to recognize that it (and technology as a whole) is approaching a point where its development, and the knowledge available to mankind as a whole - is increasing to the point where human brains cannot keep up. Once computer programs can write new programs that improve upon themselves, not just self-replicating, but self-evolving... we have absolutely no way of predicting what will become of them. And I personally can't wait to see it happen.
     
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  5. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

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    As a Singularitarian and Transhumanist, I approve of this thread.

    Lets not conflate the falling of the American empire and its ever shrinking pool of scientist and engineers creating practical inventions with decrease technology development, China and other countries have massively ramped up the output if scientist and engineered. More so unrestrained logarithmic technological growth is not necessary for a singularity to occur, we could go backwards and all become Amish and then 1000 years from now people start letting machines take over the creative and technological development process, sure we will be delayed 1000 years but we still get a singularity. More so the limits of human economics and psychology is very likely to hinder more technological progress, but it won't stop the inevitable, only slow it from coming.
     
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  7. Read-Only Valued Senior Member

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    You're bypassing the main point here even if you did touch on it.

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    It matters not how *much* they produce - it's the fact that they aren't innovative. Innovation is what brings progress - not copying.
     
  8. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

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    18,142
    I disagree with the premise that they ain't innovative, most of my lab mates are Chinese, my advisor is Chinese, The Chinese, are shooting out scientist and engineers at a incredible rate, in second place are the Indians, so no its not simply copycating.
     
  9. SolusCado Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    600
    Indeed, by virtue of the fact that they ARE able to crank out the same technology at a lower cost means that there IS innovation at hand, whether it is in the manufacturing methods, materials, etc. (And that is assuming that they are indeed simply "copying" American technology.)
     
  10. francois Schwat? Registered Senior Member

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    2,515
    That's an excellent point. Innovation is important, but so is production. If the Chinese are able to produce these PVs at a massive scale, it will be disruptive as all hell. It will really change how the world produces energy, and for the better.

    If that happens, then electricity production will be produced and stored locally. There would be no fighting for energy since it will be nearly free. No more wars and digging in dangerous locations for oil.

    One side effect of these types of technologies could be that we'll be more independent from one another. Part of what prevents wars and violent conflict in a global world is the fact that we're dependent on one another. But if a nation is fully self-sufficient, it's much less likely to tolerate nonsense.
     
  11. SolusCado Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    600
    On the other hand, another part of what CAUSES wars is that somet countries sometimes have resources that other countries want, so by eliminating energy from the equation, we reduce the number of reasons for war.
     
  12. kmguru Staff Member

    Messages:
    11,757
    As a remote viewer, I did not see any Singularity to circa 3040 when time travel will be a reality but restricted to emergencies. But, I did see to far future, though can not pin point the dates. At that time, we have managed to colonize other planets with a command center in one island that has access to activities on Earth real time (like Minority Report, but much more elaborate with brain interface).
     
  13. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

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    18,142
    Oh Yeah in the year 1,000,000 and a half, Humankind will be enslaved by giraffe, Man must pay for all his misdeeds, When the treetops are stripped of their leaves, Whoa-oh!
     
  14. Read-Only Valued Senior Member

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    10,296
    Not even close. The single - only!! - reason they turn out so much more at cheaper prices is because of VERY cheap labor. Practically slave labor.
     
  15. kmguru Staff Member

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    Yup...now we know what a Transhumanist will look like...

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  16. Green Destiny Banned Banned

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    1,211
    If it did happen, then what would prevent an automaton who would doubtfully share the same agenda's or moral codes as we do, from simply rejecting the human race entirely? Every computer in the world could be hacked. Military and hospitals require the aid of such computers. We'd be fucked if it did not like us, or found us a threat. Personally, I would not like to see such days...

    ..even if it happened or is at all plausible.
     
  17. SolusCado Registered Senior Member

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    And thus the core material for countless sci-fi stories. Putting aside such notions as Terminators, The Matric, or Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics, I read an article in Scientific American (or possibly Discover) just the other day that made an excellent point: Since robots [on the battlefield] are not concerned with self-preservation, they would have no need to "shoot first", but could make calculated responses regarding their actions.

    Of course, those calculated responses could indeed decide that mankind ISN'T conducive to whatever their ultimate goals are, and could indeed wipe us out - but that is the nature of evolution, isn't it? That which SHOULD survive, DOES.
     
  18. Green Destiny Banned Banned

    Messages:
    1,211
    Evolution? Well... I guess. It doesn't exactly apply like the biological laws of evolution, but I guess it's akin to it all.
     
  19. M00se1989 Banned Banned

    Messages:
    508
    It all breeds a positive message into society for the benefit of mankind's life.


    Just add that as the fourth law and get them to help us out as much as mathematically possible.

    then get them to understand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life and maybe they will be able to share in the actual experience. Run some electrical signals through them and they will spend the rest of their time helping us understand why we die. I highly doubt they would use us for energy storage units If we told them the atom bomb was their cousin and their mother was the internet. LOL
     
  20. Caution! Robot Registered Member

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    7
    Barring cataclysm - you bet!
     
  21. Caution! Robot Registered Member

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    The great book by Hans Moravec 'Robot' deals with this topic and is a mindblower. He speculates afterwards there might still be hold-overs of organic humans who will prefer to live that way. But I feel if we don't destroy ourselves big changes are coming...
     
  22. M00se1989 Banned Banned

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    508
    Instead of training these robots to kill, we should have them aid our singularity by first building this singularity, then helping our children learn about the world like in Alduous Huxleys novel, "Brave New World". Like a world where it doesn't matter who you screw as long as you got robots designated as parents to take care of the babies you make. Sounds like the real life situations of the average teenager.
     
  23. Bravowon Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    54
    I've already started to build it and here's a brief description:
    When I considered an A.I. design it was more than tempting to use our own human consciousness as a template, after all, what is the use of a robot that fetches your ball or scratches your sofa to bits. The first problem to consider is an ethical one (if you succeed I dare say there would be some responsibility on your part to maintenance this new mind) and involves whether or not to build in all the redundancy inherent in our own brains. An AI could be potentially destroyed by corrupt data without built in redundancy. So I ask the question: If we create an artificial consciousness that is comparable to our own, do we consider this to be a new life? If yes, then we should at least consider the robustness of the end product. Unfortunately, this also makes an almost impossible task even greater.

    To start with, we could not process the data stream from the artificial senses into a single function and would have to manage each separately while drawing a combine conclusion from all simultaneously.

    The matrix in which the A.I. would develop is also essential for a desirable outcome. Personally I don't think it possible for any human to write a complete code for artificial human consciousness in one go and so I posit the need for a design that builds constructively upon itself (like a crystal formation). This leaves two options – an artificial environment or a suitable real-world framework.

    The subjectivity of data captured from the A.I.'s matrix is another consideration. We need to corrupt the raw data collected by our A.I. and I would consider this a viable approach – combine the analogue and digital concepts. The analogue signal represents the “mood” of the A.I. (which is captured from later on in the process) and is used to amplify the digital inputs coming from the artificial senses. A small but important first step.

    When we get to the brain of the computer this, now slightly corrupted, raw data needs to be sieved through the subconsciousness part of the A.I. in what could be described as a “bounce back” technique. Imagine shining a touch onto a wall in a dark room – you send light out and you receive light back - but in the process you are also revealing the character of the wall. The same concept is used here but in the place of the wall is the “subconscious” and in place of the eye is the “actual consciousness”. This stage reveals the character of the information received from the A.I. matrix. This character would begin as a blank “wall” but would be defined over time by the consciousness just as taking a pick axe to the real wall would alter its character. Obviously there is a lot more to it but the end result would be a stream of information describing what we see and how we feel about it.

    Once this process is complete the data stream would continue into a secondary subconsciousness where the process is mirrored but on a much smaller scale (sort of like a short term memory) and continue through a number of tolerance checks - say temperature, calculated flight distance, predictability of outcome and many million more. If any of these checks fail then the short term memory is updated and a recalculation is made to the data stream. At the same time, if the tolerance checks come back as desirable then the situation is marked desirable for repetition and a “mood” indicator is developed. This smaller scale memory would then be mapped back onto the the larger one at a defined “sleep”point which permanently alters the initial perception.

    Continuing from there would be the animation of the frame and audio which I might type out depending on the interest
     

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