Will Greece exit the Euro? (Thread now a poll)

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, May 13, 2012.

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Will Greece Exit the Euro (Poll version)

Poll closed Jul 12, 2012.
  1. Yes

    70.0%
  2. No

    30.0%
  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    Well, you were never one to let your ignorance of subject matter get in the way of your posts and your beliefs. I suggest you do some homework. You might want to begin by reading prior posts and references in this thread.
     
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  3. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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  5. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yeah, but, what faith can anybody now have that this stuff will get implemented? After all, not only was Tsipras himself denouncing these very measure a week ago but >60% of Greeks voted against them in the referendum last Sunday!

    The only way I can see the German, Dutch and Finnish people agreeing to yet another bailout is if the money is released in stages, dependent on reaching successive reform milestones, verified externally.

    By the way, I was entertained to read there is some talk of the Greek government suing Goldman Sachs for helping them misrepresent their financial position when they applied to join the Euro. Surreal: like Al Capone suiing his gunsmith for supplying him with weapons.
     
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  7. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    True enough, trust is a big issue and rightfully so. I think you are correct, the money will likely be released in stages contingent upon achieving milestones, and that makes sense. I don't any one, other than perhaps Greece, wants this to be a never ending story.

    As for suing Goldman Sachs, at some point Greece needs to man up and acknowledge their culpability in the creation of their problems.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2015
  8. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    24,690
    The Germans, in particular, need to pull their heads out of their asses.

    When World War II started, Germany had not yet paid off all of its World War I reparations! After WWII, Germany's reparation debt was larger than its GDP for the next 5 years. In 1953, the USA and the Western European nations (not the USSR and its satellites) agreed to reduce the debt by 50%.

    Greece was one of the countries that was party to that forgiveness--even though it was one of the countries that had been completely occupied by Nazi troops for more than five years!

    The shoe is on the other foot now, and Germany should reciprocate, in gratitude for the mercy that the Greeks showed them in their darkest hour. Germany would not be the economic powerhouse it is today, if it had been required to pay 100% of its war reparations.

    As for the USA, Greece is a tiny country with fewer people than New York City and an economy comparable to the state of Connecticut. Bill Gates could probably bail them out with his pocket change.
     
  9. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,981
    200 year bonds at zero percent interest should do nicely.
    sharia anyone?
     
  10. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    I think even the Germans understand that at some point they will have to forgive some of the Greek debt they hold. I think the main issue here is not the money per se but Greece's spendthrift ways. It is difficult to explain to a German worker why he or she needs to pay benefits for Greek retirees that German/European workers and retirees do not receive. Already much of the Greek debt is already zero interest debt. If Greece would just collect the taxes currently due the Greek government they wouldn't need the current bailout and they would have money to spare. I think for Europeans, this is about process and not so much about the current bailout money. Comparatively, the money is a pittance for the EU or the United States.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_evasion_and_corruption_in_Greece

    I don't think it fair to compare Germany's war debts (i.e. reparations) to those of Greece. This isn't like the first time Greece has required a bailout, this is its 3rd time since 2010. The EU has already loaned Greece some 240 billion euros and it now wants another 54 billion. When does it end?
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
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  11. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Eurogroup finance ministers have adjourned their Greek debt discussions and they want more from Greece. Germany wants a 5 year plan, either Greece performs or they are out of the EU.

    Tsipras should have taken the Dale Carnegie, "How to Win Friends and Influence People" class before beginning these debt negotiations.

    "Wolfgang Schaeuble, finance minister of its biggest creditor Germany and a stickler for the EU's fiscal rules, said negotiations would be "exceptionally difficult". Emerging optimism about Greece had been "destroyed in an incredible way in the last few months" since Tsipras won power, he said."

    Just as an FYI to Tsipras, its probably not a good idea to call the people you want and need to give you 50 billion euros terrorists among other names and then throw huge temper tantrums. Its pretty obvious the EU has had enough of Tsipras's shenanigans and he and his people are going to pay for his transgressions.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/uk-eurozone-greece-idUKKBN0P40FR20150711

    Well so much for Tsipra's promises of a quick solution after the referendum, banks have not reopened as he promised. Pensioners have not received their pensions as he promised. And no one knows when Greek banks will open or if they will open.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  12. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,981
    What would you expect to happen if Greece defaults on it's €24 billion debt to the IMF?
    Bearing in mind that the IMF only has about €19 billion in reserves.

    Does Greece effectively get to start over at zero again?
    Do we end up bailing out the IMF?
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,908
    It has already defaulted on its IMF debt and where do you get the notion the IMF only has 19 billion euros in reserves? The IMF is in good fiscal shape. A Greek debt default will not cause any IMF liquidity problems. As previously posted more than half of Greece's debt is owed to EU member states.

    https://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/liquid/2014/1214.htm

    Greece's default on its obligations to the IMF is the least of its troubles now. In about 9 days it faces defaulting on its ECB debt obligations which will terminate the limited support the ECB is providing to Greek banks. If Greece defaults on that obligation, its lights out for Greece.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  14. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    28,806
    The bankers don't want to do that until they have laid off the loss on various taxpayers. You can see that in the years of delay, which no banker would have favored if they were going to be stuck with the cost anyway - the hole is only getting deeper, and the eventual pain greater.
    It's one "crisis" (crime, assault) , ongoing. Those earlier "bailouts" mostly just paid interest to the moneylenders - the banks were bailed out, not the Greeks. Sound familiar?
    That's the Fox News version the bankers are trying to sell. It appeals to the German authoritarian types as well.
    So which is it - spendthrift irresponsible Greeks (working some of the longest hours in Europe, and saving a higher percentage of their wages, until the recent IMF engineered crash), or neglectful criminal coddling Greeks (those tax evaders are only able to cheat as they do with the help of the international bankers, who have been meddling in Greek politics as well) ?

    Argentina, among others, partially blew off the predators and came out OK so far - better than they would have under austerity programs like the ones imposed on Greece, for sure.

    It would hurt, but so would bending over for the guys who arranged the whole mess in the first place - and the pain probably wouldn't last as long.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  15. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    28,806
    Really. Mythical. The mobsters and tax evaders and financial cheats of Greece exist, but the international bankers they've been dealing with every day for decades are mythical.

    Who set these deals up - muppets?

    Who said anything about noble Greek government? A government corrupted by financial predators is not "noble".
    Of course. Easy pickings for international financial predators, some of whom where Greek. What's your point?
    And you think that faked data completely fooled the big shot moneylenders about the economic state of affairs in Greece, a country of 10 million people with an economy thoroughly embedded in international trade for generations - even when some of these big shots were Greeks themselves, mind you, and involved in the fakery, and enjoying longstanding mutually beneficial relationships with the scum of the globe ?

    Those bigtime financiers, the ones who have been collecting the bailout money from the German and French and and Dutch taxpayers as they extricate themselves from the middle - they were innocent victims of the swindling Greek government officials, taken to the cleaners by midlevel bureaucrats in the Greek revenue agencies. The same low level functionaries who can't seem to find a way to collect a few million in income taxes from the local shipping tycoons ran a long con on the major financial players of the Western world.

    That's your assertion. Really.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,908
    Well at least you are consistent, you never let little things like facts and reason get in the way of your ideological beliefs.

    While you may find bliss in ignorance, I don't think Greeks are very blissful these days.

    As has been pointed out to you this has nothing to do with bankers evil or otherwise...oops.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  17. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    28,806
    You mean private moneylenders have slid out the side door - I'm assuming you realize that "bankers" includes the central banks of countries, the IMF, etc, all of whom own substantial Greek debt. We'll assume for the purposes of the next few sentences that these central banks are not, as the US Fed is, in cahoots with the big financial players of their respective countries, and are instead upright and clean organizations trying to do what's right rather than what's best for their friends and professional associates. We will keep a straight face while making this assumption.

    Even the IMF.

    OK: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/
    http://demonocracy.info/infographics/eu/debt_greek/debt_greek.html

    These agree that after a long series of bailouts, private players and their clients or customers have reduced their exposure substantially but still own about 70 billion in Greek debt. So they need maybe one more bailout to get clear, before the debt is written down as it will be, but in truth they have been paid much in interest and fees on this debt already- via the bailout funds from European taxpayers of various countries as well as the Greek taxpayers, and their various victims clients - so they can probably afford to write down their remaining pocket Greek debt whenever it finally needs to be done. The great increase in the debt since it became obvious it was bad and would have to be written off, from the bailouts, is of course none of their concern. And invisible here but known to us all is the fact that these profiteers have, as Greece started its death spiral years ago, sold much of this debt to pension funds and the like in various ways - so the 70 billion is high for their direct exposure, but an indication of what passed through their hands.

    And there are hints and shadows: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-hide-debts-when-it-joined-euro-10381926.html
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
    And so forth.
     
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    Huh, no. Private money lenders have never owned much Greek debt. If you had bothered to read this thread and understand that material, you would know you are repeating material that has already been discussed in this thread. Greece hired those investment bankers to hide some of its debt so it could enter the Euro system. Greece got what it paid for. Is it unreasonable to expect Greece should be capable of governing itself and being accountable for its own actions? The debt deal with Goldman Sachs occurred more than decade ago in 2001. Other than aiding Greece in its effort to fraudulently enter the Euro system, investment bankers had nothing to do with the events which followed 9 years later and the 2 previous Greek debt bailouts which began in 2010. Additionally, investment bankers are not regular bankers (commercial bankers). They don’t loan money. They are a special breed of bankers who raise large sums of cash for individuals, businesses, and governments. They make their money by putting deals together and charging fees for those services, not by lending money as commercial banks do.

    Two, central bankers are not commercial bankers either. You don’t seem to understand the distinction. Not every organization with the word “bank” in its name is a commercial bank. Central banks only make secured loans to member banks and in the case of ECB, other central banks. In the EU system, a national central bank is similar to a Federal Reserve District. Federal Reserve Districts or in this case national European central banks have no monetary policy making ability unless they opt out of the EU. Federal Reserve districts and in this case national central banks are charged with supporting banks within their districts or countries, not with monetary policy. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is not in cahoots with anyone and the US Federal Reserve has absolutely nothing to do with the Greek debt crisis. That is just more of your left wing conspiracy nonsense. Unfortunately we see on the same conspiracy nonsense on the right end of the political spectrum as well. And as previously pointed out in this thread Greek debt is held primarily held by other European countries through the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Contrary to your assertion the EFSF isn’t a central bank. Contrary to your claims, most Greek debt isn’t held by bankers, central or otherwise…another oops. And one more thing, the IMF isn’t a central bank either. It’s an international financial organization. It doesn’t service banks, it services governments in order to promote trade and foster global monetary cooperation and secure fiscal stability.

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/greece-seeks-third-debt-restructuring-who-s-on-the-hook-

    So as is frequently the case with you Iceaura you have virtually subject matter knowledge.
     
  19. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    Ignorance isn't bliss as Greece is now learning the hard way.

    Like I said you are not one to let little things like facts and reason get in the way of your beliefs.

    Additionally, only a grossly ignorant person would equate Argentina with Greece. The 2 are fundamentally very different. Not even Greece's former finance minister would make that assertion. The Argentine economy is self sufficient, the Greek economy is not. As previously noted in this thread without assistance, on its own, Greece would quickly run out of the foreign currency it needs to purchase the vital commodities and goods it needs. As previously discussed, Greece is heavily dependent on its imports. Greece's economy isn't self sufficient and without a hard currency, Greece will not be able to buy the foreign goods it needs (e.g. oil, food, clothing, medicine, machines, tools, cars, etc.).

    And Argentina is still mired in a debt crisis.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0K81DL20141230
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,908
    It looks like Greek banks may remain closed for yet another week.
     
  21. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    That is obviously not true. Unless you regard the 70 billion or so they still own or that passed through their hands as "not much", anyway. Or maybe you regard pension funds and the like as not "private", or brokers as never being "owners"?
    You are referring to "Greece" as if it were a single person. The actual Greeks who did that are relatively few in number, corrupt capitalists with longstanding relationships in the international financial world, and they were robbing their fellow citizens.
    The term "commercial bank" appears nowhere in my posts. There is a reason for that. Instead, there is explicit recognition of the issue in several places, most recently in post 114, first paragraph - a gentle mockery of your apparent presumption that these central bankers live in some parallel universe disassociated from the big international investment banks and so forth.
    I made no such assertion.
    My claims have been, repeatedly, that the Greek debt which will have to be written off eventually has been and is being offloaded unto various taxpayers as much and as rapidly as possible. I claimed that was a factor in the otherwise puzzling and irrational postponement of the inevitable writeoff of much of the Greek debt - a postponement which has caused that debt to balloon relative to the Greek economy, deepened the hole and increased the misery and restricted the options of the Greek citizenry.
    We all know that. Did you just discover that fact, in my links above?
    Did you by chance type that in haste, without thinking? You might want to reconsider posting flagrant nonsense of that nature.
    So not being grossly ignorant, I didn't. Do you have a point?
    Uh, no, it wasn't. Not without great hardship.
    They suffer, still. But not as much as they would from allowing the moneylenders to run their economy. Greece is facing hard choices, but defying the bankers and taking their chances is not - by the evidence - the worst option.

    btw:
    Why are you posting links that duplicate the info I linked for you, in support of my claims, earlier? Are you asserting my ignorance without having read my posts or checked my links? It wouldn't be the first time.

    Notice that in the years since the original Eurofraud allowed the predators to enrich themselves at the expense of Greece's credit and prosperity, especially starting around the time the death spiral began, (between 2005 and 2010) the predators have successfully offloaded much of the inevitable losses unto various taxpayers of Europe while extracting as profit much as possible from these taxpayers and Greece itself.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2015
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    LOL, well true to form you are not being honest. You are lying to cover your ass. And I referred to the Greek government as a single government, because it is a single government. And yes you did equate the Argentine government with Greece when you suggested Greece should default like Argentina. And no one, least of all me, has coppied your bullshit.

    Further, I suggest you go back and read your post. You blamed banks and central bank for Greece's ills. It was obvious from your post you didn't know the difference between commercial banks, investment banks and central banks, so I explained the difference to you so that you could understand why your beliefs are wrong and your argument silly. And you clearly didn't understand who Greece's creditors are.

    The bottom line here Ice is you are clueless. As with most of your posts you have little if any subject matter knowledge.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2015
  23. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    This sums it up:

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