Will Greece Default on it's debt?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Michael, Jun 30, 2011.


Will Greece Default on it's debt?

  1. Yes

    19 vote(s)
  2. No

    5 vote(s)
  1. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    FROM: Greece’s Choice

    In a narrow sense, the Greek parliament has to choose between a second bailout and a disorderly default. But the prospect of default merely epitomizes a broader bankruptcy – political, institutional and moral. The choice facing Greece is simple: will this be a race to the bottom or a race to the top? There are two Greeces out there, and the battle is on about which Greece is going to prevail.

    One Greece is laid back and relaxed. It is not particularly ambitious, and it dreams of a job that pays well but demands little. It is a Greece that wants to eat well, drink well and live well – so long as it can do this without having to work hard. It is content and not at all shamed to work two or three hours a day and get paid a full day’s work. It sees nothing wrong with evading taxes, crossing a red light, or throwing trash onto the ground. It treats laws as guidelines – follow them when convenient, ignore them when not. It is a Greece that glorifies rebellion and roots for the underdog, not matter what the rebellion is about or what the underdog stands for. It is a Greece that wants to judge but fears to be judged. It knows and celebrates that no one is watching – and acts accordingly. It is paranoid and conspiratorial and finds blame everywhere else but in itself. It is a petty Greece, violent, entitled, spoiled and lazy. It is insular and insecure – insecure about its position in Europe, about its capabilities, about its potential to succeed. And it is a Greece that fears success and envies the success of others – better if we all fail or better yet if no one ever tries.

    The other Greece is hungry and anxious. It is ambitious, and wants to succeed and do big things. It is proud of its history but wants to make its own mark in the world. It is a Greece that can win championships and that can host the Olympics. It is confident, intelligent and highly educated. It has studied or teaches at the world’s premier universities. It conducts research at world-class labs, staffs the world’s top companies, and writes award-winning music and films. It is a Greece that can compete in cut-throat businesses like shipping – and come out on top. It is an entrepreneurial Greece, one that will look for the tiniest opening to profits. It is liberal, tolerant, and commonsensical. It has real worries and real concerns and it has no time for fake battles and illusory struggles. It wants to get things done. And yet it sees that its future is held hostage, that there too many shackles that hold it back. It is a Greece whose one hope and demand from life is to be given the opportunity to succeed.

    Bailout or no bailout, default or no default, the Greek people have to make up their minds. Which Greece do you want to live in?
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  3. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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  5. charles brough Registered Senior Member

    Yes, indications are that both the ECB and the Fed are buying European government bonds. If they eventually default, the hyper-inflation due in the dollar would become even more serious.

    I also find that not only is the upper income class in the US buying gold, but in India and China, the rich have been buying masses of it because they have always seen it as the normal way to save. As they have become richer, they have therefore been buying more. Since that minimizes the cash flow into banking and hinders credit growth, it is deflationary.

    Also, if European nations default any further, that is also deflationary. I find it hard to picture a crisis in which the US experiences severe inflation while it is deflation in much of the rest of the world!
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  7. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    It's either inflation or deflation with the Federal Reserve. Heaven forbid we had a sound monetary supply....
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    "... Reuters is reporting that Eurozone finance ministers may be looking to delay the second bailout deal for Greece until after the April elections.

    Reports indicate that the finance ministers are not convinced that Greece’s new political leaders are sufficiently committed to making the sacrifices necessary to qualify for the second €130 billion bailout loan package. Given Greece’s history of missing their fiscal targets, the Eurozone’s powers-that-be appear to be taking a harder line on the latest round of bailouts.

    "There are proposals to delay the Greek package or to split it, so that an immediate default is avoided, but not everything is committed to," one official briefed on the subject told Reuters.

    The official added: "There is pressure from several countries to hold off until there is a concrete commitment from Greece, which may not come until after they've held elections." ..."

    From: http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/re.../1/0/d48b2d4d48e7611de6c04960c8628045d08362d3

    Billy T comment: Seems likely to me that the greeks will get the 14.8 billion (by memory) they need to pay creditors on March 19 (by memory) (See part of above I made bold) but little more, until post election government starts to actually do good part of what it has promissed to do - cut minimum wage 20%, fire many government employees, cut pension payments, raise and better collect taxes due, etc.
  9. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Apparently they want to wait until after the elections to really put the hammer down on Greece.

    Sadly, the Greeks have been fed the line they MUST remain in the Euro to the point where they can't seem to do the rational thing, which is to go back to the drachma and devalue to the where they're again competitive.
  10. adam2314 Registered Senior Member

    Go to John Warnes. The Slog..
  11. Ivan Seeking Registered Senior Member

    According to Fareed Zakaria, on Fareed Zakaria GPS, this morning, the deal is done - the Euro-zone crisis is effectively over.
  12. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Fareed Zakaria is a hand-puppet.

    The crisis is only just beginning. Nationalism is on the rise in Europe. The French unions are on the street today. Italy is teetering. And the Greeks are going to vote in a demagogue as soon as they can. Which I don't think is good, but this is what happens when you let unscrupulous Bankster Technocrats in power. The Greeks are going to vote this unelected GoldmanSux monkey (and anyone that supported him) out of office as quick as you can say αντίο. Mark my words, the Greek government is going to be flipped on it's head. The same will happen in Italy.

    Then, they'll default.
    Which will lead to banks in Europe defaulting. Which will pull down the institutions that insure those banks - which are located in America. That's when Helicopter Ben will find his place in history, one way or anther.
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2012
  13. Ivan Seeking Registered Senior Member

    He said the crisis is over. That doesn't mean the problems are all solved; and unsolved problems certainly don't require that the worst case will be the outcome. Given your level of confidence that all hope is lost in all cases, I must assume that you have a bias here - be it emotional or otherwise.
  14. adam2314 Registered Senior Member

    Ivan seeking .. says.

    the Euro-zone crisis is effectively over.

    The slog agrees that there has been movement..

    Does not agree that it is all cut and dried..

    Not much that either you or I can do about it..

    Did you know that all National Banks have a secondary currency ready to go ??.
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    I think they have only studies how to cope with two or more currencies in EU. Will ATMs & vending machines change? etc.

    Yesterday 100 FF coul be exchanged for 9+ Euros, but not today. People keep finding a few in back of old dresser drawers, etc. Any found now are just paper for historical interest.
  16. elte Valued Senior Member

    Greece's economy can't do much else than continue contracting as the economic fluff falls away. Anything that doesn't contribute to producing things related to basic food, clothing, and shelter will continue to contract. There are a lot of people in the world desiring to get jobs in fluff areas (edit: any area they can, actually), so they can do it in their own countries so long as they can provide enough of the basic food, clothing, and shelter stuff first. They would rather hire locals to work than import external labor like from Greece, Egypt, or any other country that is short on natural resources.

    The Greeks are in an unenviable position of having to work both smart and hard. They will have to be very resourceful, so to speak. It will take a while for them to get into a more comfortable groove that still involves a much lower standard of living. I don't think it is really right to blame them for all their trouble since very few people in the world appear to understand what matters in macroeconomics.
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2012
  17. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    He may have suggested the crises is over. I disagree. Why would anyone listen to a hand-puppet like Fareed Zakaria? Is he on location in Greece? I don't think so. He's a talking head that moves his mouth when the hand in his rectum moves it.

    Seriously, the crises is not over. It's far from over. Probably Greece will exit the Euro and then the puppets will say the crises is NOW over. And they'll still be wrong. Is the world going to end? No. But, your standard of living is going to decrease. Unless you can pull another Saudi Arabia sized cheap-oil supply out of your bum :shrug: It's going to take a LOT of productivity to pay off the Banksters and their Technocratic puppets.

    Think of it like this. At a modest 5% growth rate an economy doubles every 15 years. That means double everything. Twice as many schools, roads, houses, PS3s, iPods, etc.... that takes oil. Lots and lots of oil. Why do you think NK lets a nuke off and not a peep. Iran does nothing and all hell is about to break loose on their arse. Get this, if Japan raises it's interest rate to 3%, every single dollar they take in, will be required to make the interest payment. They just doubled their sales tax.

    I'd be thinking Iran and their Nuuuuooooooclear WMD....AGAIN!!! pffffff.... people sure are funny and a little stupid

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    Last edited: Feb 21, 2012
  18. adam2314 Registered Senior Member

    The deal is done .. Handshakes all round 124%/ GDP by 2020..

    Remains to be seen if it is accepted by the ratings people..
  19. adam2314 Registered Senior Member

    BillyT says.

    " I think they have only studies how to cope with two or more currencies in EU. Will ATMs & vending machines change? etc. ".

    below copied from Slog comments..

    The Comptroller of the Currency has a ace up their sleeve, they regulate all
    National Banks (Any Bank with the word National in their name) as part of holding a Chater most of the bigger National Banks have in their Cash valuts special sealed canvas bags with wire seals an emergency currency which is unique in that each denomination is totaly shaded with its own color for that bill. As a former National Bank examiner, who has seen this money during my during the 1970s audits of National Banks.. Very few people, including the Bankers in whose vaults this money resides even know about its existence. This currency was for a social/economic crisis in this country and could be used to devalue our current currency being used. It would work like this, if the Government declaried overnight a 3 for 1 devaluation you would as an example bring in $ 6,000 in cash, the new money would be issued by giving you $2,000 of the new currency. Also they could limit the amount any person received by requiring you to show proof it was yours. During the Carter administration, (Burt Lance’s ) was considering issuing this currency on a 1 to 1 exchange, the idea was to curb the drug trade, thus making millons in drug money worthless overnight. However, it was realized that this was a onetime thing and as such the cost to the taxpayer made this a no-go.
  20. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

    Germany is flirting with total disaster.
    The markets are very shaky today, given that an important agreement has been reached.

    Countries like Germany, still smiling, who have benefited from the Euro-zone experiment,
    are not willing to finance fellow Euro-zone countries which are suffering.
    They are saying "Stew in it"
    They have got the gain, but don't want to share the pain.
    Believe me, there are tears to come.

    I would hate to see the Euro fail.
    Europe is a small place, and to have lots of currencies is stupid.
    But making a small country like Greece, with 48% unemployment among its young people, suffer further cuts, is crazy.
    Would Americans put up with that?

    And that is what this agreement has accepted.
    My sentiments are with the embattled Greeks and their Protesters.
    The current arrangement is not sustainable.
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2012
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    “… Some central banks may have the words "National Bank" in their name; conversely if a bank is named in this way, it is not automatically considered a central bank. For example, National-Bank AG in Essen, Germany is a privately owned commercial bank, just like National Bank of Canada of Montreal, Canada. On the other side, National Bank of Ethiopia is the central bank of Ethiopia and National Bank of Cambodia is the central bank of Cambodia. …” From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_bank

    Thus having (or not having) word “National” in bank´s name has zero significance as to what type of bank it is.

    The statement quoted below is so silly that I am sure there is little of value at its source. (only fabrications)
    Furthermore, there are probably several organization in different cuountries with title "Comptroller of the Currency" but none has any power over the banks of other countires.

    The claim that there is some Comptroller of the Currency with power over all banks in all the world with National in their name is silly beyond belief. Do your really thinks it controls banks in China, Germany, US, Canada, Cambodia, Ethiopia, and several dozen other countries that have banks with "national" (or their local language equivalent) in their name.?

    If you do, please contact me - I have great price I can offer you in sale of the Brooklynn bridge, but act today.
  22. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

    With complete hindsight.
    Might not Europe have been better to have adopted two or three currencies, with mutual support, as a predecessor to a single currency?

    The single currency is becoming like some jealous God to which the Euro-zone is prepared to sacrifice anything and everything.
    It hasn't worked guys. Time for a re-think.

    I predict a FTSE fall by Friday. This minute, 5927
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2012
  23. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    There's nothing wrong with multiple currencies. Especially given today's smart phones and internet banking. It'd actually be better if we had even MORE currencies. Private and Public. Let the Citizens choose. Give them the freedom to use whichever currency THEY choose. It's their money, why should they be forced to retain it in a particular currency and not another? Also, this might make bond issuers more responsible. As it stands, government politicians / roaches in bed with interest groups are able to outright steal private wealth by devaluing the currency. Just look at who's running Greece. Lucas Papademos was appointed to the head Greece. He was the Governor of the Bank of Greece and Vice President of the European Central Bank. He helped mask Greece's debt / cooked his country’s books (and goose) with assistance from Goldman Sachs that ultimately lead to this horrible tragedy. One worthy of the Ancient Greeks (who would have tossed this ass mucher off a cliff to appease the Gods long ago).

    The Greek people are the first living example of a nation-wide case of Stockholm Syndrome.....

    Unemployment is running near 40%+ for some demographics. A National Museum was recently looted (remind anyone of Iraq during the "Freedom Fries Affair"?). ALL thanks to an immoral policy of Central Bank planning. Put bankers in charge and get screwed.... Who'd of thunk it possible? AHhhhhhh ALL OF HISTORY THAT'S WHO!!!
    The general public has been bamboozled into believing it's moral to steal from Peter to pay Paul. Well, this is what happens. Yeah, make a deal with Satan and you find you're the one who's lost everything. Big f-ing surprise that one was.

    AND..... it's coming to America. Take a look at Greece my fine fatten American friends. Then at Detroit. That's the future.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2012

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