Will Britain vote for Brexit?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by James R, Jun 22, 2016.

?

Brexit or Bremain?

Poll closed Jun 24, 2016.
  1. I would support Brexit and I think it will succeed.

    3 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. I would not support Brexit, but I think it will succeed.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. I would support Brexit, but I think Britain will Remain.

    2 vote(s)
    22.2%
  4. I would support Remain, and I think Britain will Remain.

    3 vote(s)
    33.3%
  5. I have no opinion / don't want to express my opinion on this.

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%
  6. Brexit? Bremain? What 'chu talkin' about, Willis?

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Nacho Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    137
    Being from the US of A, I know I'm not even a novice in all of this. It only matters to me in my investments, but I think/know that is only short term (for me). Though, the thing that would have gotten me -- and thus me voting for exit -- would have been the concentration of wealth and power in Belgium. Or that at least is the way it is portrayed here -- that most of the reaction was due to that. The standardizations and scientific achievement and the common market and the sharing of culture seem to me to have been a great part of the EU. But the big money brokers wanting their share and wanting to declare policy from afar I don't like. That same thing has led to a political shift in the USA, that the persons in Washington DC making the policy are not a bit beholding to the persons that are affected by the policy. I might get hurt, in the short/mid term by going against it, but I think it in my best interest to try to deny or limit their power in the long term.

    I'm just hoping that nothing drastic happens to the production and sale of Scotch and Irish Whiskey. That would be a dastardly crime.
     
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  3. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,643
    Yeah, a nice summary of what we are likely to get, I think. The whole thing is a f***ing disaster. And yet, we have neighbours - intelligent people - who think it is a great victory.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    Oh well, I'll be dead or past caring in 20 years, and my son has dual British/French nationality so he can hedge his bets.
     
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  5. geordief Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,600
    Corbyn has come in for criticism as being lukewarm in his role in the remain campaign. This has been put down to his personal views.

    But can it really be that he and his advisors have had one eye on his grassroots base (which got him elected) all along ?

    Has he been frightened of alienating them as he is counting on them to protect himself from the parliamentary party and has been anticipating a leadership contest all this time?

    Is that why Hilary Benn has noted that he is not a "leader" -because he is pandering to "his" faction and not (in this instance) the interest of the country as a whole (or even the Labour Party as a whole)
     
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  7. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
  8. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,085
    On Radio 4 (yes, I listen to radio 4) this morning they mentioned a poll that suggested 7% of those voting Leave would now change their mind, but also that 4% of the Remains would also.
    The end result: Leave would still win but by a majority of 400k.

    Gut feel is that more than 7% of Leave voters would want to reverse their decision if they could, but maybe that is wishful thinking on my part.
     
    joepistole likes this.
  9. geordief Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,600
    The only "evidence" I have seen for this supposed change of heart is BJ's body language which I just put down to his (as I perceive it) devious narcissism and posturing.

    He is not a media friendly person for nothing. He was not sure how to present himself ,blinking to the new audience he had acquired.

    As for other public commentators who were on the leave side I have not noticed any crack in their resolve.(they do know that events will trump their certainties in any case)

    Of course,statistically some will regret and change position (and this will be used for propaganda purposes)
     
  10. sculptor Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,898
    Looks like it's starting as another down day for the U.S. stock markets.
    ..................(phuck the brits)..............
    Brexit
    Reminds me of a conversation with my first wife.
    She told me that she was leaving me.
    "OK"
    "I'm really leaving"
    "You already said that"
    "I'm going NOW"
    "OK, bye"
    ................This continued for quite some time..........
    2 years later, we finally divorced
    6 months later, she moved back in with me
     
  11. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Well it's tragic to see a country vote itself into recession. That's what UK voters did. They voted themselves into a recession, and recessions are very expensive. Frankly, I'm a little disappointed in the Brits. I wasn't sure how this was going to go. But I had always thought the British were a bit more rational and better informed than my fellow Americans. I guess I may have been wrong.

    The larger problem appears to be a grossly inept government. The UK desperately needs leadership.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2016
  12. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,085
    To be fair, I think the Government had been quite capable - our economy was growing, the financial situation looked okay. The one issue they had was in the inability to seriously contemplate and thus plan for the result of the vote that we got - and thus should never have called the referendum when they did.

    Had they had reasonable plans up front then (a) the campaigns would have been better informed, (b) we wouldn't be in the political mess we're in at the moment, and (c) they could move forward more quickly.
    But they didn't. It was a shock to everyone that they won, that we effectively tanked our own economy for the long-term and everyone else's for the short-term.
    Don't blame the Brits - just the 52% - just as we won't blame the 49% of you lot that vote for Hillary.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
    exchemist likes this.
  13. CptBork Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,380
    What would a loss of access to the EU market mean for London as a financial capital? My understanding was that a lot of multinational corportations locate headquarters or branches there, largely because they thereby gain access to the whole continent.

    In any event, renegotiating Britain's trade relations would be fairly easy and simple if they were smart about it. All they need to do is eliminate or avoid imposing any tariffs and restrictions on EU products and services, regardless of what the EU does, and they would maximize their domestic benefit. Every time a nation imposes tariffs on imports or exports from another country, both nations suffer an economic hit in one way or another. Retaliating for "unfair" trade practices in a competing nation only adds to the damage the competitor causes to both nations with their initial practice.

    Let Britain purchase cheap, subsidized EU butter largely paid for by EU taxpayers, even if it pushes their own dairy farmers out of business. Those UK pounds have to be spent on something within Britain sooner or later or else they become worthless, and when the foreign customer buys whatever they buy from the UK, they'll be buying something expensive of high quality that the UK specializes in producing efficiently, and they won't be getting any taxpayer-funded discounts (not from British taxpayers, at least). Britons can exchange a few designer teapots for tonnes of cheap EU butter, sell the butter for a killing and go retire in a castle built with cheap French taxpayer-financed marble. Britain's leverage in trade negotiations with the EU would simply be to note that every barrier to trade hurts both sides in one way or another.
     
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    That was 49% of Democrats. It wasn't everyone. But Hillary, while not perfect, is capable and certainly a hell of a lot better than The Donald, her Republican opponent.
     
  15. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    It would be devastating for the UK. Multinational trade accounts for 40% of GDP. The UK accounts for about 10% of the EU GDP.

    Well it's more than that. It's very complicated. Trade deals are very complicated. That's one of their gripes.

    UK debt was just downgraded as a result of this referendum, and it will likely be downgraded again. That's not good news for the UK. UK debt just became more expensive for UK taxpayers.

    On another note, American right wing news and radio are celebrating the referendum's results.

    I understand from folks who know the UK government far better than me, say it is very unlikely things will change. So any hope that somehow another referendum will give the UK a second chance are highly unlikely, and given the government response thus far, I'd say they are right. I think hope that somehow this will be reversed is a false hope. They are going forward with the split come hell or high water and no matter what the pain or the costs. Short of mass demonstrations, I don't see the British government reversing course on this. So the best thing they can do is negotiate another agreement quickly, and nothing happens quickly in the EU.

    What is needed is some leadership to suppress the panic. What is needed is some calm. As long at this is largely contained to the UK the rest of the world if fine. I think the EU nations, including the UK , need to fiscally stimulate their economies. That would go a long way towards bringing this panic under control, and growing the economy.

    If that doesn't happen, I think it very likely the British economy will quickly begin to slow. Unemployment will rise, and the UK can become just like Spain with 20+% unemployment.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2016
  16. Nacho Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    137
    Neither one of them are worth the effort to vote for them, but they both are worth the effort to vote against them. And, that illustrates a point here and in the UK to exit EU vote and politics in general: what any of us think of the "other" side crazies is pretty much balanced out by those "others" thinking our crazies, especially within the last 20 years or so, have been within just a few points. The craziness we think of the "other" side is balanced pretty well by the craziness they assign to my/our/your side.

    So, just take it on faith that there are quite a few persons that still think the exit was/is a good idea.
     
  17. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Sometimes the other side really is crazy e.g. the UK referendum and the American right wing which attempted to engineer a debt default on multiple occasions.

    While I'm not thrilled with Hillary, she is certainly better than Trump. That's how elections generally go in the US. We are normally stuck voting for the better of two imperfect candidates. That's how I felt about her husband and that's how I feel about Hillary.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2016
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    I think we all need to calm down now, it's difficult given the lack of leadership in the UK. There is no doubt the British economy will in the very near term begin to slow and unemployment will slowly rise as businesses stop investing in the UK and to a lesser degree the EU, and that will get worse the longer this drags out. The UK needs to get new and competent leadership ASAP, and they need to get a new trade agreement ASAP. They are looking at rewriting some 40,000 pages, and that's just with the EU. They have to do that with the US and ever other country they want to do business with. I suggest they cut and paste.

    Some people are equating this with the Great Recession of 2007-2009. I don't think it's that. I think the governments will ensure their banks do not fail. US banks are very strong. European banks on the other hand are somewhat better, but they aren't as strong as their American counterparts and they may need government bailouts. But if they do, I think governments will support them. They don't need a referendum to bailout banks, thank God! I don't think this is an existential crisis. But it is a definite downer for global economic growth. Goldman Sachs a well respected leading US investment bank expects the UK will be in recession next year because of this referendum.

    As the British pound continues to fall, it adversely affects the currencies of everyone who does business in the UK by making those currencies stronger. It makes their products more expensive in the UK and it simultaneously reduces the value of their earnings in the UK. And since this event has devalued the Euro too, it similarly adversely affects other EU members states as well and multinational companies who do business in the EU. The EU is the second largest market in the world. That's why global stock markets have cratered.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2016
  19. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,643
    Yes. The only ray of light I see at the moment is that Osborne may stay on. They will need him: he gets on with the EU leadership, has their respect and he knows what he's talking about. They may not have many professionals in the new team, especially as I read that a number of senior civil servants may resign, rather than be forced to implement something they profoundly disagree with. Boris certainly isn't professional - he's a jumped up newspaper columnist.
     
  20. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,085
    I'm referring to the vote in November, when 51% vote for the Trump!

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  21. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    19,945
    Yep. And I suspect the same sort of thing will happen right after the election.

    The top US Google searches will be "who is Trump" and "what are Trump's policies."
    Trump will admit that he can't build the wall and he's really close to broke - and he doesn't really have any plans for foreign or domestic policy.
    The Trexit campaign will gain steam, and Tregret will become a common phrase.
    Trump's trial will go to court. He will tell the judge that he will deport him if he rules against him. Then he will tell the jury that they might just "end up in the hospital" if they find against him. He will go free.
    His new reality show - "You're Deported!" - will hit NBC.
    Within a month, the top US Google search will become "how to re-do presidential election."
     
    Sarkus likes this.
  22. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,461
    What is all this nonsense about a wall being impossible to build? We're not talking about a space elevator. This is pretty basic technology. China built a wall a couple thousand years ago.
     
  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    19,945
    Not impossible, just impractical.
    Yep. Most of it was mud rather than the picturesque stone fortifications you see in geography books, and most of it has since eroded away. And it took 1700 years start to finish. And it didn't work anyway - it did not stop the invasion of the Mongols that led to the downfall of the Ming dynasty.

    So if the goal is a wall that takes 1700 years to finish and fails at what is supposed to do anyway - then the Great Wall of China is a good model. Doesn't sound like that great a goal to me.
     

Share This Page