Why do so many people think Amierca will fall?

Ben Franklin was concerned about whale oil running out. The Civil War almost tore the country apart. World War II took us face to face with Nazi German and we prevailed. Then we won the Cold War against a nuclear super power. What is going on now that leads so many people to think the US will fail in a major way? It seems like people are concerned about a whole lot of nothing.

 

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People are concerned about a lot of things. And I have to agree, I think the mood in many circles is overly pessamistic. In no small part due to the fear, doom and gloom being marketed by conservative media.

There are plenty of things to be optimistic about. Notably but not limited too:

- one of the greatest and fastest economic turn-a-rounds in history
- everyone will soon have access to affordable healthcare
- the US is is still the largest single economy in the world
- the US economy is growing at a modest pace
- as each month passes, more jobs are being created than are lost
- we have a competent Federal Reserve and it is working.

But we do face a number of challenges and risks:

- political risk (risk government may become incompetent and incapable of governing - Tea Party economics).

 

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Billy T has discussed this in depth here:

Is the US too big to fail?

Why is $ and US in Decline? or Are they?

The second thread is more comprehensive with links to various other opinions.

 

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Failing in a major way ONLY means dollar devaluation...as this is the method that will be used to escape America's colossal debt.

America has so much debt at so many levels of the economy because its no longer as productive as it once was.

America used to be the world's largest oil producer in the 1930's for example, it had vast reserves of forest lumber to export, it used to have an industrial capacity which was number one in the world.

Most of this is now gone and has been replaced with credit...and credit is the last thing nations run out of.

 

Yeah but we'll be fine. Good economic discipline- stop bleeding dollars- and sensible savings are the way to go today. That, and healthcare, which is going to steamroll over all other issues in the next decade.

We have a bubble of olf, retired folks we need to care for. After that we open the floodgates to new immigrants and it's free healthcare for everyone!

 

You might be interested to know that China will have more older people than the US in a few years. And the median age in Japan exceeds that of the US.

The thing the US has going for it is immigration. People for some reason still want to live here. And as long as that continues, the US will be a growth story as it will need more homes; more shopping centers; more roads; more food, etc.

When people start leaving the country in large numbers as they may well do as some point - especially if the country becomes incapable of governing itself - then that will be the nail in the US coffin. And the threat of the US being incapable of governing itself is very real. We have seen the results of incompetence in governance just a few years ago at the end of the george II presidency.

When the US falls, it will fall because of its inability to effectively govern. It will have nothing to do with the dollar. It will have every thing to do with incompetence in leadership.

 

Correct, plus the rate of inflation is going to get higher and higher and will only become a nightmare if the dollar plummets. Then there is the unavoidable political oppression. And they hold a lot of US debt. Its probably one of the reasons why the World Bank has predicted that China will fall back behind India in the near future. I think its too soon to tell. The BJP [fundamentalist Hindu political party] is poised to return to power in the wake of corruption scandals and if they come to power India will be slowed down by the kind of irrelevancies that such political parties always carry as baggage. You'd think with over 200 political parties we could come up with a more meaningful opposition to the main Congress Party than a bunch of religious zealots, but, there you go.


One point which the WB missed and which I think is relevant is the number of highly skilled trained Indians who work overseas. Recently there has been in increase in the number of highly skilled professionals who have returned to India [this is part of an ongoing brain drain in the US] due to the economic problems as well as social concerns and concerns about the children's future. At my recent high school reunion I wasn't surprised to see doctors, engineers, computer techs who had been practising in California or Seattle or New York until last year, now settled in good ole Mumbai. There are also a bunch of physicists and biologists who would like to come back but are waiting for India to catch up a bit more, so that they can continue their research where they will leave it in the US. So they come, look around and consider their options but go back [for now]

You assume that people will continue to immigrate at the same rate ad infinitum. Mexican immigration to the US has already dropped and the US needs low skilled immigrants because their farming practices are not set up for Americans - its hard for farmers to find local labour who will do back breaking work from early morning to late evening - I notice that immigration statistics don't give the number of people leaving the US, which would be a better indicator of economic health than the people coming in.

Its not incompetence that drives people away - the world is full of incompetent governments, its the inability to balance expectations with reality. Its not the poor or the unskilled Americans who will leave - it will be the foreign migrants who wanted more than what they are getting. For migrants, any foreign shore is only as good as the ability to meet their needs.

The US has been under incompetent leadership for a very long time. The people just haven't noticed that because it was not affecting their lifestyles until now.

 

And if the US continues down its present course, I may an immigrant to India.

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As an American, it hurts to say that, but it is true. The shennagans that are being played out in the US today it is just down right scary.

The US almost went off the cliff in 2008 and the people who formented that disaster have attacked the rescuers and are back trying to run it over the cliff again.

If I were a national of another country, I would be trying to disconnect myself from the US as soon as possible.

I am not making that assumption. But you are right emigration statistics would be a good measure of economic health.

And it is the Americans who can afford to leave. Just as those who can afford to emmigrate to the US are doing so. There will be a reverse brain drain.

That is true. Most of the people in the US are pretty clueless about their government and a lot of other things as well. And that would not be so bad if there was some way for them to change but I just don't see it given the existing political and power structures.

It is a rarity that you and I agree SAM.

 

You may be wiser to look closer to home.

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There are a LOT of Indians to compete with especially if they start "coming back"

Interestingly, I have noticed that it is only recent migrants who are more likely to return [recent = last 10-20 years] They are familiar with the Indian milieu and "feel Indian". They also face the most hassle over their visa status and getting their families [wives, children] to join them and then get health insurance or employment authorisation. Its rather short sighted of the US to throw away highly educated, hard working professionals who come already trained for the sake of paperwork and politics. But your loss = our gain. I know a lot of second generation migrants [including family and friends] and none of them look like they are going anywhere. They "feel American"

Another option for Americans suffering from the anti-migrant politics is to develop their farmland abroad. This, I think will be the most popular option especially for labour intensive organic farms and is already an option which is being explored by some Americans

http://www.theworld.org/2010/12/23/an-american-farmer-in-mexico/

True, but its usually about perceptions, not about the problems. And its never acerbic or disrespectful.

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I won't be working unless I decide to start a business for fun. I don't need to work for a living SAM, even in the US.

True

 

Don't forget: lots of room, lots of resources, a good system for incorporating new immigrants, the world's best university system, and one of the world's highest standards of living. All of which go along with the immigration.

See above. I'm not sure, offhand, exactly how much more immigration it would take to make the population density of the US comparable to most of the other similar places that people live. But I am sure that it's a lot. There's entire states that are perfectly well habitable, with plenty of water, food and coal, that are practically empty of people (compared to the population densities in similar parts of the rest of the world).

 

If emigration statistics are a good measure of national economic health, then India is very unhealthy (lots more people leaving than coming) and the United States is very healthy (lots more people coming than leaving).

So unless the reason for your hypothesized reaction to the "present course" is a desire to move to a poor, economically unhealthy country (the better to stretch your retirement funds, say), that is not such a good measure of national health.

 

True, but that may not be the case for long if we cannot get effective governance from Washington. It remains to be seen how things will play out now that Republicans control the House. What concerns me most if they mismanage the countries finances in order to satisfy the Tea Partiers.

The other thing that concerns me is political violence in the U.S. I hope the political leadership will dial things back. But I don't see it. There is too much money being made by the hate mongers. And for the most part, our elected officials in Washington are a bunch of spineless wimps.

 

It is...

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We have more than 70% of people living under $2 a year - thats extremely unhealthy. And our emigration statistics reflect that. Most people who leave, do so for a better lifestyle, whether it is to the Middle East or the West

 

Republicans controlled the House, and a whole lot more besides, for most of the previous two decades without putting any noticeable dent in immigration.

Well, except, the financial collapse did cause many illegal immigrants to go back home. But whether that's permanent remains to be seen...

 

Not sure why you're confused - we agree exactly.

 

I just don't want them going over the cliff again as it seems they are hell bent in doing.

 

Relentless world population growth & the pressures generated thereby .This is especially so in the USA where the living standards are such each added person ( mostly by immigration ) has a large environmental impact

 

This is my fear also.