I apologize in advance for the mess, however: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! The shallow blue solid line represents the first scenario - based on the error bars. The steep blue line that looks solid at the start, and becomes broken further along its length is the second scenario I mentioned. The numbers match what you've cited closely because its very close to a least squares fit for the data for the last decade. A good least squares fit would probably be a little shallower, and .05-0.1 degree lower at its starting point. The blue dotted line (as I have already indicated) is the scenario that I was describing. The yellow lines are just me getting a feel for how much cooling that would represent.