What's going on in Egypt?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by MacGyver1968, Jan 28, 2011.

  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    "... Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations including those in West Africa are willing and able to replace any lost Libyan oil as soon as companies ask for it, including crude of the same quality, a Saudi Arabian oil official said. ..." From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aReZJxblGviw&pos=2

    This is a blow to Gaddaffi as now EU and the US will not hold back for fear of the resulting rise in oil prices (they were above $100/brl) I.e. it is more likely that a no-fly zone will be established. That will make it more possible that the anti-Gaddaffi fraction of the Army can go to Tripoli with their tanks, etc as the still loyal air force units will not be able to bomb them. I would guess that Gaddaffi is gone by the end of the month.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 24, 2011
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  3. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    My guess is end of March -hopefully much sooner.
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    That is more porbable, but implies there will be a lot more blood lost and more shame for the US and EU who stood by and let it happen. Same as they did in the Eastern Congo, etc. while more than 100,000 innocents were killed.

    BTW I did not state my thought well in post 541. What I intended was that in about a week AFTER the air space is closed the protesters and anti-Gaddaffi army will take tripoli without fear of being bombed, etc.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 24, 2011
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  7. GeoffP Caput gerat lupinum Valued Senior Member

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    You realize it'll just end up in the toilet no matter what happens, young William?
     
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Quite possibly, but at least there is some self respect in trying.

    I am reminded of the the humming bird which made many trips over the forest fire to drop a few drops of water on it and the pelican sitting on a post in the lake who did nothing. In the long run, everything goes down the toilet - It is how you lived before you do that counts.
     
  9. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

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    Well wouldn't it be better if the world were to act together and not leave the onus on one nation? The US is not the only country in the world that supports democratic ideals, as a matter of fact I would say that there are other countries that respect those ideals far better than the US, so if the world stands by and does nothing why simply blame the US for standing by?

    The only interest the US and Europe have at the moment is the oil that Qaddafi is threatening to set aflame and if they go in there it will be for that reason not because there are people dying. There have been ample circumstances where hundreds of people have died and the US, indeed the world, have stood by and done nothing. My point is that we often expect the US to take responsibility in determining the outcome of every bloody grave situation and then get angry when they simply do so for their own national interests. The US is not the policemen of the world and if we make it one then all we can expect is a bad cop, you should be calling on a number of countries to intervene not simply the US as if its their natural responsibility.
     
  10. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Certainly best if closing air space is UN sanctioned action, which as I understand it the UN is or soon will be sanctioning the closing of the air space, but if need be, due to the urgency, the US could act alone. It basically did that with the invasion of Iraq as there was fear Saddam had WMDs, or so they said. (I think that was "cover" for US oil interests.)

    On the idea of the CIA taking out Gaddafi, my first post suggestion, one needs to recognize that AFAIK, only the US / CIA has the drones needed and "plausible denial" is much easier if no other nation is involved.

    Like it or not, it is simple fact that US has military resources far in excess of others, so often only the US has the capacity to take some actions.

    You seem much more concerned with the "onus" than I am - in fact I think "credit" is a more correct term for taking out gaddafi with a CIA drone..
     
  11. GeoffP Caput gerat lupinum Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, but no one laughed at the pelican.
     
  12. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    That is fortunate as, unlike the humming bird, it probably had low self respect and could not take being laughed at.
     
  13. GeoffP Caput gerat lupinum Valued Senior Member

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    I like to think it was a more contemplative beast, although maybe it was just a prick.
     
  14. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Seriously, switching from birds, I think the need for self respect is why may young Arabs are taking serious changes with their lives. Death for each is not too likely when in large numbers / groups, but hiding at home in your bed to be safe will be destructive of self image with nearly 100% certainty.

    There is probably an insoluble basic problem that may, probably will, keep unrest in these regions for many years: Food prices are increasing globally and certainly they are not going to decrease (Energy costs are most of the cost of foods eaten in cities.)*. Those governments with net income, especially if much of it is from exports, will be able to subsidize basic food item, like cooking oil, bread, etc. but many other will financially collapse if they try to do much of this. Probably their best hope is re-settlement into small, nearly self sustaining communes, like Israel did in the early days and still does to some extent.

    Chavez is trying this, to some extent in Venezuela, using land expropriated from large farms. Each of his farming communes, has a clinic staffed by Cuba doctors and nurses, a community center, a school and some production facility for making "internally exported" items, for example, electric irons or pottery, etc. Probably there is a low power, local (and state controlled) radio station, a clean water plant, and modest sewer system. A compact tiny village, surrounded by farmland.

    As the inhabitants of these new villages were basically serfs of the former land owner, they are very loyal to Chavez and have formed armed guards, which regularly drill and will die, if need be, defending the "socialism of the 21st century." Venezuela has had its revolution, but also has a popular (except among the former rich) dictator**, who is granting himself ever more legal powers, has closed TV and the press which is "counter revolutionary" etc. I.e. is a case of a population that has jumped willingly from the frying pan into what seems to be a fire that is consuming many political human rights.

    I suspect that in the long run, (a decade or so) this will be the pattern in much of the region now "on fire" - I.e. strong centralized rule of a socialistic society. Recall that in Saddam's Iraq, many got their basic foods at the state's warehouses, gasoline was very cheap and available, etc. etc. A dictator's version of the "welfare state."

    -------------
    * In the US case, often more than 90% of food cost is the cost of the energy used to grow, package or keep it cool, etc. and transport it. See:
    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2696172&postcount=76 And that is in a country with relatively high labor cost!

    ** Chavez does not seem to be corrupt in the sense of growing personnel wealth. He often drives himself around in an aging VW "beatle." He sees himself as a modern day Simon Bolivar liberating the people from rich oppressors. A painting of Bolivar always hangs behind his desk.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 25, 2011
  15. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

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    Drone attacks are notorious for failing and killing civilians but how do you think it would be seen by arabs and their leaders if the US went ahead and assassinated Qaddafi or laid its troops on the ground? Do you really believe that those on the ground would be happy that the US has intervened on their revolution? Do you think it may upset the other protests taking place as their leaders now would have evidence of US interference? Remember that Qaddafi and others are attempting to blame these coups on foreign interference, namely american interference? Unless you missed the memo Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and the US with their troops and drones have destabilized Pakistan while their troops face increased resistance on the ground. Its not an american success but an american failure (both of those wars).

    In the meantime you are making an assumption that the US intervention won't make things worse and even bring in resistance from neighboring countries. You have to have the right intelligence to know where Qaddafi is and we don't really know where he is. Troops on the ground would have to be careful not to ever fire one shot that would kill one civilian as it would turn the wrath from Qaddafi to the US. Why is it that americans have no sense even of their own recent history, I guess its why they keep making the same mistakes over and over expecting different results. I bet all those islamic extremist would LOVE for US troops to be on the ground so that they can fuel the flames of anti-US hatred. Hey they can even goad the americans into killing innocent people and end up in a quagmire, also its amazing how quick americans are to suggest a military entry without even having an exit plan, its kind of the same mistake that had them embroiled in Iraq for 10 years. In other words no one within the international community has of yet asked the US for any kind of help so its best if the US simply minded their own business for a while and see what the UN comes up with.
     
  16. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

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    @Billy T

    BBC live Libya:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

    The protestors are winning this revolution, some Qaddafi forces are defecting. If the US does anything to interfere you might find foreigners still in the country sacrificed. This is a street by street fight between Libyan pro Qaddafi forces and the opposition. Throw an american into that mix and all you will have is a disaster. Americans will not know who is the opposition or who are pro Qaddafi anymore than they would know who is in what building for a drone strike unless they got that intel from the ground. In a situation as fluid as this they will never be able to secure such information and know whether its reliable or not. Maybe the US should think before it acts for a change.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2011
  17. Gustav Banned Banned

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    weird shit
    the un is comprised of.......
     
  18. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    "... Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that he was sending the USS Ponce and the USS Kearsarge to the Mediterranean. These are amphibious-assault ships that typically carry V-22 Ospreys and MH-53E troop-transport helicopters. ..." {I think they are nearing the north end of the red sea now and will go thru the canal tomorrow, if they don't need to wait their turn. The Osprey is mainly a Marine plane with large props at ends of conventional wings. They can tip up to let it land like a helicopter or in horizontal position fly much faster forward than a helicopter can.}
     
  19. GeoffP Caput gerat lupinum Valued Senior Member

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    How appropriate that one of the vessels being sent is the Ponce.
     
  20. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, that is interesting.
    "...AP - Libyan warplanes struck the oil port of Brega on Thursday, a day after armed rebels foiled an attempt by loyalists of leader Moammar Gadhafi to retake control of the strategic installation in the rebel-held eastern half of the country. ..."

    I expect that Gaddafi will not allow the rebels to export oil, even if he must bomb the facilities. If that is the case, then there will be a very direct cost to EU (and the US) in higher oil prices. Punishment for inaction. The CIA should have taken him out with one of the unmanned drones it has used on many others who were less of a threat to the US economy as I suggested many posts back. Perhaps it is still not too late to do so. That would be a good way to end one of his multi-hour long public speeches. Perhaps US (et. al.?) air cover will protect the oil port and near Med refinery facilities from destruction by bombing?

    One of the more probable uses, IMHO, of these US ships is to provide air dominance protection over the Med where aid ships are delivering humanitarian aid to the rebel held ports. Italy and some others are planning to send ships with humanitarian aid to the rebel held ports.

    BBC 13:26 GMT: Libyan oil production has been "halved" because of the unrest nationwide, the head of the National Oil Corporation, Shukri Ghanem, tells AFP. Libya normally produces 1.6 million barrels per day, AFP says, but has seen capacity plummet as foreign workers have fled the country.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 3, 2011
  21. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    Libya is the world's 15th largest exporter of crude, accounting for 2 percent of global daily oil production. America doesn't much from them at all. The UK does.
     

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