What were the many errors of "Day After Tomorrow"?

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Hypercane, Jul 5, 2004.

  1. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    A storm of that sheer magnitude does not dissipate within ten days.
     
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  3. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

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    >>>> Oh, and the Solar remnant would be a neutron star, not a red dwarf).

    i don't think our sun has enough mass, especially after exploding, to form a neutron star.
     
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  5. Starthane Xyzth returns occasionally... Valued Senior Member

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    Our Sun doesn't have enough mass to explode at all, under current astrophysical models. In the catastrophic core collapse which initiates a supernova explosion, though, electron degeneracy pressure of the central matter can be overwhelmed even with far less mass than Chandrasekar's Limit (1.4 Solar masses). Once neutronium is formed, it cannot bloat up back into degenerate matter. Theoretically, a neutron star with as little as 0.2 Solar mass can form.
     
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  7. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    Im wondering how the topic of the sun got into this thread.

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  8. Andre Registered Senior Member

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    Starthane said

    Exactly

    Of course the Milankovitch cycles have been blamed for causing ice ages but there remain many controversies, enough to doubt the real mechanism. Moreover coincidence of extremes in Milankovitch cycles only cause local insolation differences, whilst the total recieved yearly solar energy on Earth remains constant and the assumed positive feedback factors are falling apart with recent evidence.

    But there is a lot of evidence that volcanic action causes a nett cooling. using the derivative of the
    The Stefan Boltzmann law doubling CO2 will only cause a greenhouse gas effect of 0.7 degrees C without counting feedback effects.

    Well, how about the albedo change in the last few decades:

     
  9. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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    OOooops! Sorry friends, posted in a wrong thread! I wanted to post in the "ice chunks falling from the sky" thread.
     
  10. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    And now the question that even most scientists have a hard time answering : Is the shutdown of the whole ocean current cycle enough to bring an ice age?
     
  11. The Singularity The last thing you'll ever see Registered Senior Member

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    In my opinion ... yes ... the shutdown of the conveyor belt may not cause a direct ice age but it probably may start a chain reaction of climatological events leading to an eventual ice age. The shutdown of the ocean circulation is like removing one leg from a chair ... it may or may not tip over but if it starts to tip ... then the whole structure comes down with it.
     
  12. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    I believe the same thing Singularity, its just the fact that do other people believe it. And what is the real deal.
     
  13. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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    I am sorry but I must disagree with both of you, Hypercane and Singularity. The favourite scenario of certain climate modellers is one in which the North Atlantic oceanic <b>"conveyor belt"</b> and Gulf Stream are turned off, thereby turning Western Europe into Siberia. But more realistic models show that the warmer European temperatures are not set by the Gulf Stream but by the perturbation of the atmospheric circulation induced by the Rocky Mountains of the Western US. (<i>Seager, Richard. 2003. Quart. J Royal Meterorol. Soc.</i>)

    There have been studies made quite recently on the subject of freshening of North Atlantic waters due to the alleged “melting” of Greenland ice pack. The study is this: <i>” Does the recent freshening trend in the North Atlantic indicate a weakening of the thermohaline circulation?”</i>, (by Wu, P., Wood, R., and Stott, P., 2004, Geophysical Research Letters, 31: 10.1029/2003GL018584.) This study shows that even as there is a freshening of the North Atlantic, the conveyor belt <b>is strengthened not weakened.</b>

    Finally, we have the direct evidence from the atmosphere: Previous warmings, the Holocene optimum (8000-5000 BP) and the Medieval Climate Optimum, when temperatures were 2º C higher than now, (ca. 1000 AD), did not cause any abrupt cooling.

    Cheer up! No catastrophic warming ahead. You can keep living happy and productive lives.
     
  14. Starthane Xyzth returns occasionally... Valued Senior Member

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    Not to mention that, going back further, previous interglacial periods have been considerably warmer than this one, with hippopotomi wallowing in the river Thames and African lions ranging as far north as Yorkshire.

    Perhaps the rate at which the climate warms could be the crucial factor. A rise of 1 degree per century or so may allow ocean and atmospheric circulation systems to adjust smoothly; a rapid jump of 2 or more degrees in 25-50 years could have less predictable consequences.

    Not like in The Day After Tomorrow, though.
     
  15. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    How exactly does an unbalancing of salinity strengthen the belt?
     
  16. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L02301, doi:10.1029/2003GL018584, 2004

    <b>Does the recent freshening trend in the North Atlantic indicate a weakening thermohaline circulation?</b>

    Peili Wu, Richard Wood, and Peter Stott

    Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, United Kingdom

    <b>Abstract</b>

    [1] It is widely expected that the thermohaline circulation of the ocean will slow down as greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere increases. This is partly due to an intensified hydrological cycle in a warmer climate. Is the recent observed freshening trend in the North Atlantic an indication of what has been expected? We report a similar freshening trend reproduced in an ensemble of four coupled model simulations with all major historical external (natural and anthropogenic) forcings. The modelled freshening trend originates from the Arctic Ocean where sea ice decrease and river runoffs increase with the same trend. Instead of weakening, we find an upward trend in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

    Received 9 September 2003; accepted 3 December 2003; published 20 January 2004.

    You should go to the Geophysical site and get the complete paper - I have not a subscription (it costs money)- Try here:

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003GL018584.shtml
     
  17. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    Global Warming has become confusing to me.
     
  18. Andre Registered Senior Member

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    That's because global warming is not science anymore. Science is all about testing hypotheses and correct predictions. If predictions fail, you adjust the hypothesis or reject it. If you stubbornly continue to believe in it despite numerous shortcomings, you're leaving the scientific path.

    Global warming is a "political religion" based on alleged consensus, models, fallacies and fear. The science is based on soon to be obsolete paleo climatal ideas.
     
  19. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    And I am guessing that is the flaw of most scientists nowadays?
     
  20. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Hypercane asked:
    “How exactly does an unbalancing of salinity strengthen the belt?”

    Edufer supplied a peer-reviewed journal article in reply, which the best response, but I offer the following less mathematical description which may help with the understanding:

    As the name implies, the conveyer belt is a current big loop with the Gulf Stream as the most obvious and best known part. This GS water is saltier than the North Atlantic water it floats on because it is also warmer, but somewhere roughly off Newfoundland, the GS has cooled enough to begin to sink because of it higher salt content. As it sinks it loses heat even more rapidly and presses down harder on the water below, but it can be quite complicated in detail with relative small “fingers” of GS water “falling” and rapidly-cooling by heat transfer to the cold ambient water in a “Taylor instability.” I call the gross overall effect the “piston effect” when describing thermohaline driven circulation in my book, Dark Visitor.

    If the ambient North Atlantic water were as salty as the GS water, the piston effect would be zero as the GS water would not sink. Likewise, if the ambient North Atlantic water were entirely fresh, the piston effect would be even larger than it is now and the sinking would begin further south. Melting ice (fresh water) added to the North Atlantic ocean makes it fresher and thus tends to increase the piston effect and the circulation in the conveyer belt in this simple view, but if the more complex math mathematical models state otherwise, I would tend to go with them. (I have not read Edufer’s reference yet.) I am only trying to give a feel for why the freshness of the North Atlantic ocean is an important factor, if not the controlling one I think it is.

    Learn more about Dark Visitor, including how to read for free, at www.DarkVisitor.com It is a scary story about a small black hole passing 12 AU from Earth and causing a rapid return to the ice age in 2008 because Earth’s new eccentricity is 0.0836 after the “Dark Visitor” is back in deep space. I use Dark Visitor book to unconventionally teach some physics (I am a retired physics professor.) and hopefully recruit some science students. - I am very concerned that the western world will lose scientific leadership of the world in a generation or so, just as it is currently losing technological leadership to bright, well-educated, hard-working Asian nations now. (No prejudice here, just simple economic interest for my grandchildren – I know from personal experience what capable students of physics Asians often are and only wish they were not now so restricted from coming to the US to study, marry and remain. IMHO, this stupidly fought “war on terror” is doing a lot of long-term damage to the USA and tighter emigration polices are but one small example. But I am drifting from the thread, so I’ll stop.)
     
  21. ck27 Registered Senior Member

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    how about down pouring rain? Could new york flood with a few days of non stop down pouring?
     
  22. Starthane Xyzth returns occasionally... Valued Senior Member

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    I suppose it could; the drains sewers could overflow, and the streets could certainly become like rivers. The actual river might also burst its banks, if there was similar heavy downpours upstream from the city.
     
  23. Hypercane Sustained Winds at Mach One Registered Senior Member

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    Let me correct myself: a storm that size could dissipate within ten days.
     

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