# What is next for Gold & Silver? (obsolute prices now removed)

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, Dec 5, 2009.

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## Where is Gold price going next? (give why in post)

Poll closed Nov 30, 2010.

4 vote(s)
30.8%

5 vote(s)
38.5%
1. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member

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23,198
I could not be considered to be a trader. I learned the hard way more than 50 years ago I am not good at it. I also don't investigate the financial structure of the companies I invest in for three reasons:
(1) except for very tiny and thinly traded ones, I tend to accept the efficient market POV. (Insider knowledge does distort that, but for companies I have shares of, I read the SEC reports of insider sales and tend to get out if they are. A few months ago I got out of ILMN at 44 because of that. I bought it years ago and started a thread about DNA sequencing as there is a lot of jargin I could not understand. CharonZ et. al. helped me.)
(2) It is a lot of work to just get the necessary data then decide what it means.
(3) The data may not reflect the true financial health of the company - very easy to move debts off the books, etc.

While I am lossy at short term timing, I am very good* at telling what will happen a few years from now. So I tend to be a "buy and hold" investor.

About half of my portfolio (about 60 stocks now) is in early stage drug developers. Nearly all of the rest is in Brazilian, Indian, Chinese, Australian stocks with a few mineral producers (gold mainly) of Peru and Canada and some other Gold miners which tend to be global.

I like early stage drug developers as they have high risk (already factored into the price, so dollar collapse risk is relative small part of total risk) but mainly because I am motivated to hear their presentations via internet to funding conferences, etc. It is truly amazing, and very educational, to follow and deeply understand the dozens of different approaches to major medical problems now being explored. What physics was to the 1900s, cellular processes will be to the 2000s.
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*I went from a "full needs" scholarship Cornell student who several times could not afford bus fare home for Thanksgiving etc. to current multi-millionare with only a salary as income.

Last edited by a moderator: Feb 1, 2010

3. ### Search & DestroyTake one bite at a timeModerator

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1,467
Did not get my sell-off today. Gold just has plenty of strength and the dollar doesn't.

That's really interesting Billy-T. I approach the currency markets much more technically. All I do is look for strong correlations, strong trends, find major support/resistance, and wait for market movers (ie by checking out the 5 sec). I try to bring a stop to break-even ASAP and let the profits ride.

I can understand the bus tickets. I'm 22 and about to move cities for a job so I can just barely make enough money to fly home for the sister's wedding this summer. I would rather be poor with lots of free time than have a full-time office job. So what can I say... Charts are fun, but being under-capitalized isn't always. Congrats on climbing out of here!

5. ### BlueRidgeRegistered Senior Member

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141
The price of gold(AU) will continue to sky rocket. This is largely due to the way gold is mined now. The good old days of load mines are over. Cyanide heap leaching is the process now and it takes massive amounts of lightly ore laden material to create an ounce now. 2nd, the EPA has cracked down on this process to the point of shutting down mines. This is something I know pretty well. It will continue to rise, because we are (in part) throwing away pure gold now at a rate faster than it can be recovered and refined.

The gold atom refuses to oxidize. If you know that, then how do you take advantage of it? The problem is that there is no green way to recover or refine gold(at least none that I sharing with strangers). I have (over several years of work) developed a method, that doesn't require licensed chemist in a licensed lab to perform the task. Stripping with nitric acid is efficient, but again you have the EPA and licenses breathing down your neck the rest of your years.

Bottom line, keep buying gold. If you are interested in high quality stuff, the Canadians do the best work. Their Maple Leafs are rumored to be the purest coins in the market.

7. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member

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23,198
That may be true, but are you considering that tons of old circuit boards end up in India (and other places) mainly for the recovery of their gold? I think they too take advantage of the fact gold will not oxidize - I.e. start their gold recovery process by high temperature burning. A process used for more than 100 years, so if that is the process you speak of, it is not "yours" nor is it economically attractive on even very rich ore sources, which are much lower concentrations than old circuit boards.
Very interesting, if true, and obviously you cannot give details, but how do you intend to get rich from your new recovery method?

Also note the EPA has no jurisdiction where most ( >90% ?)of the gold production is located, so I don't think they are much of a problem. For example China is largest producer for three years now. I think South Africa is number 2, but Russia may be. Canada is large producer as is Peru etc. I doubt if US is even in the top dozen gold producers. Do you know?

SUMMARY: Your new extraction / concentration method must be cheaper than the now traditional heap leaching.
If it uses oxygen for high temperature burning of ore, it is not economically attractive as unlike the cyanide, the oxygen can not be recovered and re used.

Last edited by a moderator: Feb 3, 2010
8. ### BlueRidgeRegistered Senior Member

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141
I am fully aware of what goes on outside the US. I didn't do this for no reason. 2nd, I am not in the "mining" business per se. US held mines are under very strict regulations, and I wouldn't sink a penny into them. I am a hobbyist who found a better way. I had to develop my own tools and equipment. I never planned on getting "rich". But I did sit down once with a calculator and got an amazing figure, should I ever continue my pursuit. Well. My supply of PCB's and other precious metal bearing materials became too much to manage, and life in general was getting to be too much as well. So I put away the idea of PCB's and the process. Being sorta resourceful I found new supply lines. However, all the gear sits boxed up in my basement waiting on another time. And I should emphasize, PCB's are far from the only source of AU just laying around. They are just the most easily recognized, acknowledge and accessed. I only know of one other guy who does this, ironic he lives very close to me. But he hasn't figured out how to accelerate the process, much less safely, nor get 100% recovery. My system uses none of the things on the current inventory of gold stripping chemicals. That was kind of the goal to begin with. That's all I'll say.

The point being. I know a thing or two about this, and predicted the prices we see today. They will continue to go up, trust me.

9. ### sandyBannedBanned

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7,926
Bought mostly in 01-04. Saw it rising in 04 and knew it was a good investment.

10. ### Search & DestroyTake one bite at a timeModerator

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1,467
ooo it was so nice buying USD yesterday. Gold really got hammered.

11. ### Search & DestroyTake one bite at a timeModerator

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1,467
Billy-T, I talked to my folks last night and found out they have been experimenting in the markets too. My mom bought http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=drooy

Have you heard of it?

12. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member

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23,198
Not until now. It is S. African gold producer, I see. The S.A. gold production has been falling for a few years (last three China has been No.1 not S.A.) I seem to remember there are labor problems as well as declining grades and very deep mines (very hot conditions for the workers).

13. ### BlueRidgeRegistered Senior Member

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141
I've noticed you're pretty slick. You'll know when to unload and that time is coming. There's a new product in the world of metallurgy that will change things soon. I'll pm you on it.

14. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member

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23,198
Sandy has made many claims of past wise investments - that she was not born with a silver spoon in her mouth but is self made with 8 figure worth by age 30. At times she gives God at least some of the credit, but never explains why he has not done the same for others, who are equally devout.

BTW "eight figures" is > 100,000,000 or at least hundred million dollars. (Some how Forbes missed her in it list of richest American women.) Or in other words her wealth increased more than 3 million dollars every year of her life despite not having much wealth at birth. - If you believe that PM me with your Email as I own a bridge in Brooklyn I will sell you cheap.

AFAIK, Sandy has only actually told of her investment when they were being made twice. Here they are:

Note that both posts below are slightly more than two years old. Typical property values are now about 35% lower.
See her post at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1732541&postcount=1014
From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1707534&postcount=797

So much for Sandy’s “slick” financial judgment skills. Her statement about being worth more than a hundred million dollars by age 30 and having made it herself, not inherited it, etc. are found in that same thread. Most of her posts there give praise to GWB and tell that there will never be a recession under him. (He is one of the very few presidents who had two - the second starting at least a year before he left office.)

Sandy is an incurable optimist -un-phased by facts of the falseness of her prior predictions and as making more than 3 million dollars on average every year since a not wealthy birth is essentially impossible, I take her undocumented retroactive claims of great timing of buying gold, stocks etc. with a grain of salt. You can be impressed by them if you like.

In that same thread, I mention that I sold (that day) IBN (the largest private bank in India’s ADR) for $70/ share and then a day or so later noted that a second 1000 shares also moved at$73.73 ADR share. – Anyone could check those facts and I had no way to know that the current price would be: $33.73, I.e. ~$40 dollars less. I also have told when I bought ILMN (I stated a thread soon thereafter on DNA sequencing machines) and later told in a post when I sold it, at nearly triple my investment. It too is now about half the value I sold at (and these fact were posted here when trades were made, not claimed retroactively).

I am now old but worth nearly 3 million dollars and certainly “self made.” I was so poor (a “full needs” scholarship student) that I could not afford bus fare home for Thanksgiving some years when I was a Cornell student. I know it is not possible Sandy made an average of more than 3 million dollars every year from birth without being born to great wealth (It takes money to make money). I.e. I can recognize obvious retroactive BS when I see it, and noted her own documented bad judgment (the posts cited above) in real estate investments, but you believe whatever you like. (Sandy, if she responds, will probably claim her properties were so well chosen that they have appreciated, etc.)

Last edited by a moderator: Feb 8, 2010
15. ### imwithidRegistered Member

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13
I'm doubtful of gold's real appreciation over the long run. Gains and losses remain dependent on these short to medium run cycles. It has only been approximately 35 years that this raw material has been allowed to float at market prices but it remains highly speculative (perhaps remnants of past memories of the gold standard and early peak in 1980 after market prices took over).

Alternatives have been sought and used over the years. I remember my first computer used gold plating for much of its circuitry (perhaps a marketing ploy). Now there is almost no gold (except for connectors). Gold is no longer as fashionable in its use of jewelry as it used to be (other than those over 60, few wear gold watches and that, perhaps, is understating the reality; even Mr. T no longer wears his famed gold with some exceptions) with the exception of developing nations (i.e. India who consumes about a quarter of annual production).

I do not gamble (I've only been to a casino once and coerced to gamble on another's tab of only five cents). I'd attribute investing in gold directly (acquiring the material) to an activity worse than gambling and personal refining a similar endeavour being both costly and a loss making past time in monetary terms. At least for those who pan or search for gold, they get some exercise, sun and fresh air in addition to any grains or nuggets they find.

16. ### quantum_waveContemplating the "as yet" unknownValued Senior Member

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6,626
To each his own. I like the outlook for gold and silver from here. Do I think the short term bottom has been put in yet, no. Do I think it will reach new highs in the new year or year and a half, yes. It is a risky speculative gamble for those like you who are conservative, and it is a hedge for people like me :fright:.

17. ### nirakar( i ^ i )Registered Senior Member

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3,383
I am not inclined to believe anything Sandy claims. I even have doubts that she is female. Being smart would be really helpful in becoming rich.

But, isn't eight figures 10 million to 99 million? It is not really such a big deal to be worth 10 million anymore.

18. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member

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23,198
"... {China} recently announced an increase in its official gold reserves, it said the total had catapulted by 76% since 2002, reaching 1,054 tons. China accomplished this without a single purchase on global bullion markets. How? By quietly becoming the world's largest gold producer, then buying up all that it produced. ..."

From: http://moneymorning.com/2010/02/09/copper-new-gold/

Billy T comment: So long as China, the world's largest gold producer for past three years, does not sell any on the open market, there may be developing more demand for than supply of gold. China is very nervous (for good reason) about her reserves in dollars, so has no reasons to sell gold for dollars. I would think China will sell none for at least a decade more.

I speculated nearly a year ago that China may back the Yuan with gold, but only for any central bank, not for individuals. Perhaps a value between 5000 to 10,000 yuan = one oz of Au. This would instantaneously make the Yuan an international currency, more desired than the dollar. Few central banks would actually convert Yuan into gold. (They do not now convert dollars into gold, for the same reason - i.e. deposits of currency or purchased bonds earn interest and gold is an expense to store.) The fact that the yuan was "good as gold" would make every nation prefer it to dollars for their reserves. Presumably the central banks could then sell some gold to individuals / the open market / but there already are mutually agreed restrictions on how much of the gold in their reserves central banks can sell annually.

Note also, in addition to buying minerals, energy under long term contracts to diversify her reserves, China has also is significantly buying shares of stocks. In 2009 China bought 9.63 billion dollars worth, 3.5 of that in Teck Resources - a firm I know nothing about. Perhaps they can help China dominate some field? I.e. what China buys probably tells something worth knowing. This information from today's Folio de Sao Paulo.

PS to nirakar: Yes you are correct. Thanks for catching my Error. It was late and I was tired. Sandy's claims of great wealth acquired by her own efforts (not inherited) before age 30 are some what more plausible, possible, but as you note still not very likely for reasons you stated.

Given the evidence I posted of her bad timing in real estate investments (The only "confirmable" facts she has posted) I do not believe her claims either, but I am sure she does not care so long as some others are impressed by them.

Last edited by a moderator: Feb 9, 2010
19. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member

Messages:
23,198
Now I can answer some of the questions I asked in prior post 55:

“…China Investment Corp., the Asian economic superpower's hulking $200-billion (U.S.) sovereign wealth fund, has been quietly accumulating stakes in resource firms including Canada's Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T17.87-0.68-3.67%) and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, (POT-T109.34-1.71-1.54%) according to a filing with securities regulators. The regulatory disclosure also shows that CIC has turned an impressive profit on the$1.5-billion it invested in debt-laden Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK.B-T34.500.300.88%) last July. The filing shows that the stake in the Vancouver base-metals miner was worth $3.5-billion by the end of 2009, making it CIC's largest single equity holding. Resources are a primary focus of the fund's holdings, the filing shows. In addition to its$3.5-billion interest in Teck, CIC has a $652-million stake in Brazilian iron ore and nickel giant Vale SA, a$4.7-million interest in copper miner Freeport-McMoRan, and a $9.1-million holding in steel producer ArcelorMittal. A$4.6-million stake in Toronto-based Kinross appears to be CIC's largest single exposure to a gold mining company. The fund also holds $155-million worth of SPDR Gold Trust shares, a bullion-backed exchange-traded fund. CIC also revealed it owns 50,000 shares of Potash Corp. worth$5.4-million. China has become a key customer of potash, which is used to make fertilizer, as it moves to improve crop yields and increase the amount of meat consumed by its citizens. As well, CIC disclosed holdings of $5.1-million in U.S. natural gas producer Chesapeake Energy Corp. The comprehensive disclosure of the fund's holdings comes amid speculation that CIC will be allocated more money to invest by China's government as the country's foreign exchange holdings continue to grow. Mr. Lou recently said that CIC would focus on investing in emerging markets in 2010. In October, the CIC chairman said the fund had allocated$110-billion for foreign investments and had already deployed about half of that. …”

Billy T comment: It is all going very much as I predicted years ago. China is converting US Treasury’s paper promises, (not even paying much interest now) into real assets, especially items it will need to import even 25 years hence as the world’s largest economy.

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Oh, gosh, yet ANOTHER thread that turns into attacks on me. I don't give a fck what you believe. I have helped complete strangers on the net make good investments. You think eight figures is $100M. No wonder you're broke. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! If you buy real estate right and hold on to it you will be fine. Now is the best time ever to buy up stuff. 3 million is poverty. Good luck retiring on that. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! I give God ALL the credit. Not some. It's not just about being devout. It's about listening to Him when He gives you great ideas, advice etc. 21. ### PinwheelBannedBanned Messages: 2,424 BillyT is broke? poor guy, hope he can still afford internet connection. I hear lixluke has some good ideas on raising cash. Last edited: Feb 9, 2010 22. ### BlueRidgeRegistered Senior Member Messages: 141 You seem to believe it's impossible to make 8 or 9 figures all on your own. What do they say? "the 1st million is the hardest" Play your cards right in stocks and you can double money over and over. Play your money right in property, you can make back percentages you only dream of. Anyone could do it. I don't, I'd rather do other things with my time. But if I wanted to focus soley on making money, boy I could it out fast. You don't need and MBA from Harvard to do it. Guts and common sense have made many people wealthy. What we focus on, we get. As I progress with my new relationship with Sandy I find that she's pretty dawg-gone slick. No big shocker she's got some dough. I like and admire rich people as long as they never forget where they came from. I've known bunches of them, and most are very normal people who struck gold. One thing's for sure, none of us was ever employed by a poor man. If Sandy is bursting with dough and did it all on her own, then good for her! She should be the example to follow. 23. ### Billy TUse Sugar Cane Alcohol car FuelValued Senior Member Messages: 23,198 It is that first word (IF) which permits me to agree with you. I searched an entire long thread sandy started about three years ago. It was called something like, in not exactly like: "More good news." In it Sandy only twice tells of an investment she is making or planning. (Both were to buy real estate more than two years ago. The typically such investment is down about 35% now, but Sandy gets instructions from God, so perhaps she is showing a profit despite this; but I have my doubts.) Sandy makes many claims about HAVING MADE good investments in the past, such as buying gold when it was$500/ oz, etc. but the only investments she has posted about when they were being made (the two real estate investment recommendations I quoted in my prior post) very probably (with out God's foresight) are losers.

Sandy gives ALL the credit to God for her rapidly increasing fortune. That I do not believe. - Even if god exists and actively interferes in human events and decisions, I would still find it hard to believe he would be serving as Sandy's financial adviser yet did nothing to stop Hitler, etc.

You can, however, believe her claims and admire her if you like. I am old and more skeptical as I have heard such claims many times before.