What is next for Gold & Silver? (obsolute prices now removed)

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, Dec 5, 2009.

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Where is Gold price going next? (give why in post)

Poll closed Nov 30, 2010.
  1. To $1100/oz and then to $1000/oz before back to $1200/oz

    4 vote(s)
    30.8%
  2. To $1100/oz and then back to $1200/oz before $1000/oz

    4 vote(s)
    30.8%
  3. To $1300/oz and then back to $1200/oz before $1400/oz

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. To $1300/oz and then to $1400/oz before back to $1300/oz

    5 vote(s)
    38.5%
  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    I have not yet read your links, but agree that the Yuan is likely to be as important if not more so than the dollar for world’s central banks reserves in no more than about five years.

    Partly this is because, things seem to be going much as I predicted back when GWB still had two years left as POTUS. I.e. I expect a run on the dollar on or before Halloween 2014, with its deep lose of dollar’s value and a depression in US and EU, to follow soon after the run, but not a depression in Asia – just a recession there and also in countries like Brazil, which will effectively have become “economic colonies” of Asia, especially China.

    If that dollar collapse has not occurred, within five years more, it will be to China’s long term economic advantage to destroy the dollar and when they are ready to do so they easily can. First they must convert more to a domestic based economy with exports to US and EU minor in volume compared to exports to other Asian nations (India and Mid East oil producers included) AND reduce the dollars they hold in their reserves to be significantly less (by spending them in long-term, (decades) paid-up-front contracts for the future delivery of energy, raw materials, and food stocks they will need to prosper for several decades into the future. All this they are now (and for several years) doing at an accelerating rate. They are also building a "blue water" navy with first aircraft carrier now at sea and many warships off East Africa and even one, for the first time ever, in the Med Sea to protect delivery on these contracts.

    I have told one easy way that China, the world’s largest producer of gold and also a major buyer of both gold and silver, with purchase rates about doubling annually now, can make the dollar collapse and central banks hold Yuan more than dollars:
    This is from: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2475063&postcount=55 ,made 9 Feb 2010. I did not bother to find the older post of this idea - it probably was not as clearly stated as this one is. Note also, this 15+ month old post effectively predicted the rapid rise in gold in part I have now made bold.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 13, 2011
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  3. The Esotericist Getting the message to Garcia Valued Senior Member

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    My opinion? Get the hell OUT of gold. Unless you are holding collectable gold which you can authenticate yourself, unless it's minted during or before the Regan administration, drop it like it's radioactive.

    In the last gold thread, I posted information on the international gold scandal that broke in Oct. of '09. There has been little in the way of updates, other than Ron Paul's efforts to audit the Fed. This apparently includes an audit of the authenticity of the gold in Fort Knox as it is what the economy is based on? Whether or not gold is guaranteed by the Fed? I don't know. . .

    This is an original link to the story. The story was more printed in Europe and Asia, but buried in the U.S. The only reliable source was the NY Post, that has since disappeared. This is the only reliable source remaining. Gld ETF Warning, Tungsten Filled Fake Gold Bars
    Here is an update: FAKE GOLD BARS! WHAT NEXT?

    And for excellent analysis of the situation go here:More on fake tungsten-filled gold bars


    . . . ahhh, I found that NY Post article. It no longer has the author's name on it, and the date on the article I believe is inaccurate as well, I believe it was originally published in Oct. '09. I haven't a clue how it ended up on a Pakistani website. lol Fake gold bars in Bank of England and Fort Knox

    What? Do Pakistani's think that their government is an extension of the US government?!?

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  5. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

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    9,879
    In your opinion...

    What would it mean for industry in the US if the dollar was no longer used as a reserve currency?

    How would it affect those who hold dollars?

    How would it affect workers and living standards?
     
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    On:
    (1) Very differently for different industries. A maker of software, who does not need to import much, does not use much energy, and is selling mainly outside of the US would be much less hurt than a processor of imported raw materials selling to Americans, like Hershey, who imports sugar and cocoa and uses a lot of energy to melt, mix and pour the candy bars. - Hersey would go bankrupt as Americans could not buy Hershey bars at any price Hershey could even break even with. Any energy intensive industry also would be badly hurt if for example oil in dollars is $950/ barrel. Americans have lived well in large part because the rest of the world would accept green paper in payment for real goods and services.

    (2) It would be like forcing them to trade their dollars for dimes or more likely for nickles in purchasing power.

    (3) Huge increase in unemployment as Hershey et. al. close their factories. Not able to afford gas for their cars, and many stuck in the suburbs trying to grow some food in the yards, etc.

    Few appreciate the benefit they have enjoyed by being able to import goods and pay foreigners with paper. Really it is such a terrible blow for the dollar to lose its reserve status that I can come close to telling the disaster.
     
  8. The Esotericist Getting the message to Garcia Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,119
    From my reading of the situation?

    At first, yes, it would seem disastrous for America, but I think it would be great in the long run.

    It would depend on how the states react, and on how the Federal Reserve, and by extension, how the federal government reacts to that reaction.

    Americans are very resourceful. I think the sugar subsidies for the families that controls the sugar cane empire in Florida would dry up immediately. We would no longer see sugar beets rotting by the road side all over the Midwest. This is just one example. Americans would be forced into retooling the economy to being a more productive economy rather than a merely a useless service economy.

    And when Americans are forced to start surviving on their own, what is the government going to do, arrest them for it? Looking at H.R. 2751:
    FDA Food Safety Modernization Act,
    I think that is what they had in mind. . . But when that happens, it will all come down to where our states decide to take a stand. Will they stand with the globalists, or with the people? Some states, you know where they will stand, others? Who knows. . .

    Although it's largely debated, there are sources on the internet and in journals that hint that magnetic motors and hydrogen motors exist that currently could be put into production. Large powerfully financed interests seem at the moment to want to prevent this. I think we would see these technologies come to market much quicker if this scenario played out if the states had the autonomy to do something about this in such a crisis. If these technologies are actually existent in a market ready state as some have written about, really wonderful things could well happen.

    I think what TPTB truly desire is to create an international currency (starting with "a basket of reserve currencies") that will maintain control, rob the capital and wealth from the nation, and yet maintain control of the current energy/production paradigm. If they don't, the whole debt based currency which is ostensibly based on the use of petroleum based energy could be lost. If this happens, the people will no longer be slaves to the elites. If that happens, it could be a whole new dawning, and an age of true freedom for all of humankind. It really depends on whether the individual states are going to remain pawns of the corrupt machinations of the international financial elites and the globalist power structure.

    I'm tired of seeing men and women all over my state who could be doing something useful, looking for work doing shit jobs cutting hair, doing taxes, looking for government jobs (which are paid for by tax payer money), working in the strip malls, or at McDonald's. If it were feasible, with a new energy paradigm, they should be getting cotton from the south, opening textile factories, making shirts and pants here, not shipping them from over seas. We should be making cars here again. We should have local economies. The whole world depends on the food we grow here. Not polluting the planet and shipping shit we need here from all over the planet to big box stores, while watching advertising commercials and convincing people they need the latest gadget when the only way they can afford it is to mortgage their house or take out another credit card which then become some chopped up evil financial instrument to be traded on wall street. People should make what they need where they live. It's so elementary my third grader can figure it out. :m:

    I say let them audit the books and find out what has been going on. . .
     
  9. The Esotericist Getting the message to Garcia Valued Senior Member

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    Oh, I appreciate it all right. I'm 200 yards from a hydro-electric site. I have several bikes. Replacement parts. Hundreds and hundreds of heirloom seeds. Water treatment methods prepared. Hand-tools. Mentally, I'm prepared. I thank the Asians for the long cheap petrol party. :thankyou:
     
  10. Mrs.Lucysnow Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,879
     
  11. The Esotericist Getting the message to Garcia Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,119
    Nahh. . . . That's not my department. I'm non-violent. I believing in communitarianism and the non-aggression principle. When things start to disintegrate, we have a small tight knit community. There are lot's of guns in the community.

    I'll share what little I have with my neighbors, and they in turn will help me and my extended family fend off the highway man and bandits that might be roaming the countryside. This is how it has been done for centuries. I have a friend that is a fellow anarchist, he can't wait to be the leader in forming up a posse. lol

    Didn't you watch how things went down in Egypt? Spontaneous order. It's also how communities organized in Sudan as well. Not many people know, but there has been more economic growth and freedom in Somali with out a government than there has been with a government.
    Better Off Stateless

    Seems to me, that the best thing that the evil warmongering PTB could do for the Somalian people? Just put a weapons embargo on them, and they'll be O.K. They'll just have to use non-lethal force or negotiations to solve their disputes. Why do we insist on making "victims" of the entire world? People should solve their own problems and mind their own business. Only when they ask for help should we get involved. (And then, only to help them, help themselves.)
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2011
  12. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    With neutron activations (inelastic scattering of neutrons from simple portable Am/Be source), it should be easy to spot the tungsten filled bar. Gold has only one stable isotope. I.e. all gold is 197AU. Both Au & W are easy to activate and when they give off gamma rays the energies of the rays are different with different decay rates. Even more simple than a gamma ray spectrograph is to measure the decay half life of gold's meta-stable excited state, 197m Au, which is 7.8 seconds. After a few hours there would be essentially no radioactivity left. Certainly by the next day radiation from the gold would be undetectable. I.e. same as back ground. I.e. the gold would not be "damaged" in any way.

    I think once set up, one should be able to check bars one every minute and the main cost if doing a few hundred or more bars would be the salary of the tester. The half-life of the AM/Be neutron source is 433 years so you would not significantly "use it up" in many weeks of testing, even if you did all the bars at Ft. Knox.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 16, 2011
  13. The Esotericist Getting the message to Garcia Valued Senior Member

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    2,119
    Terrific!

    So how come I haven't heard about this anywhere in all my research? This sounds like a pretty elementary and easy solution. Of course, this isn't available to the average investor, but I haven't heard this method mentioned any where in the press as means to audit the reserves?

    The only stats I have heard mentioned is that up to one sixth of the world's gold in circulation could be salted and what it could mean to the world financial markets. There is lots of videos and articles about the difficulty they would have in determining the LBMA Good Delivery content of the genuine article as opposed to the counterfeits. Seems to me, from what you have posted, this is merely a smoke screen to keep from pulling back the curtain to find out what is going on. Why wouldn't people be using this method? Why are the Chinese and others drilling into the bricks to find out then?
     
  14. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Possibly because I have some error - I have Ph.D. in physics, so briefly looked at neutron activation as a test, but at gold only. (assumed W would have different gammas and decay times), but I am far from an expert in nuclear physics.

    One could put the neutron source on the next bar to be measured for approximately say 50 seconds, while one measured the activity of the current bar say for 5x7.8 = 39 seconds and confirm that count rate dropped to 1/32 of the initial rate observed (or any other fraction and less than minute time period). For large volume testing, process could be fully automated except for the moving of source and bars. I.e. a green light could light after about 40 or 45 seconds if bar was all gold and a red light if it was not.

    Note none of the times are critical. If next bar is in contact with source for 55 sec or 45 second that makes no significant difference. Like wise with automatic system measuring for 45 second or 40 makes no significant difference. All that matters is the count rate ratio / change from when measurement starts till last small interval of counting. The janitor could be trained to test bars.

    Probably , If I am correct, there is a new business opportunity here. I.e. the "No W" company tests your bars and issues the "No W certificate." I, however, plan to go into a mail order / internet business too. - For $10/ per bar, I will issue forged "No-W certificates" corresponding to the bar numbers you send me.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 16, 2011
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Why precious metal prices will continue to rise:

    "... The budgetary efforts needed to “merely stabilize debt are substantial for many countries,” OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan wrote in the Paris-based organization’s annual economic outlook published today. “The United States and Japan, for which such requirements are the largest, have yet to produce credible medium term plans” and other countries need to specify how they’ll achieve their goals. ..."

    From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFxN5xFa3XNU&pos=4

    BT comment: If US defaults watch them soar - perhaps double in less than a year. (Gold ~ $3000/oz and silver at ~ $100/oz for Gold/silver ratio of 30)

    -----------------
    I looked a little more into my idea of testing gold bars for tungsten cores: The inelastic scattering of neutrons may terminate with the absorption of the neutron to form radioactive 198AU with half life of 2.7 days.(as I recall for a few days ago reading)

    Thus the exposure of the bar to the neutron source needs to be controlled to be fixed time interval. The longer it is the more the 2.7 day decay of 198AU will be present. I.e. the rate of radioactivity will not have exactly the exponential decay of the 197m AU excited state, but with fixed activation exposure, will be a reproducible decay curve if no W is present.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 25, 2011
  16. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    More than two years ago, I suggested why China was rapidly growing its gold reserves - mainly then by being the world’s largest producer and selling none, but now by also being by far the world’s largest buyer as well:

    “…For the first time ever, Chinese demand for gold outpaced the combined demand for gold in United States, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and other European countries. …” Quote and bar graph below from today’s Email to me sent by: wallstreetdaily@wallstreetdaily.com

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    I.e. Gold backed yuan tobe world's reserve currency. Read my old post:

    9Feb2010 Post below is at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2475063&postcount=55 but I did not find easily the year earlier first post of this idea.
    Graph asks: "Bubble alert?" Answer (by BT) is no. I expect China will buy total available new supply in 2012, at least until that drives the price above $2000 / oz. By end of 2014 China will have grown its trade with other Asian nations*, Brazil & some in Africa and increased it domestic demand to such an extent that it has no spare production capacity to export to US and EU. Thus will not finance their growing deficits. - With pleasure**, China will tell US and EU to go to hell.

    -------------
    * India and rich oil exporters, even Norway, plus Canada are included in "Asian nations." All China's major trading partners will escape the global depression. The US will still sell coal and food to Asia so will not be as bad off as England and the EU, but these industries employ few so >25% of American will have no job.

    ** For why that will be "with pleasure" read my post here: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2668027&postcount=358

    PS - Recall that when GWB still had two years left as POTUS, I predicted there would be a run on the dollar by (or before) Halloween 2014. Thus, I am stating above that China will be ready by about that same date to collapse the dollar, if US & EU are not already in deep depression. Removing the US and EU as significant buyers of oil and raw materials will save China EVERY YEAR on the cost of its imports and thus more than compenstate for the ONE TIME loss it takes by dumping the dollars still in it reserves. I.e. dumping the dollars it has not been able to spend via long term (decades) paid-up-front contracts for the oil, minerals, food stocks, wood, etc it needs to import.

    Note also that Backing the Yuan with gold will probably cause many central banks to sell (dump) dollars in reserves to buy China's gold back bonds. That dumping probably will be greater than China's dollar dumping, and costs China nothing.

    ----------------
    Here is more data from WSJ source also confirming China's demand for gold in 1Q11 is growing very much faster than last year in 1Q10 and above graphical data:
    "... China’s gold demand last year hit 700 tons. Global demand for gold in the first quarter of 2011 totaled 981.3 tonnes, up 11% year-on-year from 881.0 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010. Chinese investors more than doubled their purchases of gold during the first quarter in 2011, compared to the same period last year.

    China’s investment demand increased to 90.0 metric tonnes (40.7 tonnes in the year prior), compared to India’s 85.6 tonnes.
    The first quarter, investments into bullion surged 179% in China totaling $4.1 billion. {BT notes: Above graph claims increase 1Q11 on 1Q10 was only 125%}

    China's net imports of silver hit a record high of {up} 400% in 2010 to 3,500 tonnes . About 70% of China's silver demand comes from the industrial sectors. China has some of the world's largest manufacturing facilities for home electronics and electrical appliances, which utilize various type of silver-based solder. ..."

    Read more at: http://online.wsj.com/community/gro...-889/topics/gold-silver-gained-rising-demands

    Chinese, rapidly growing richer, are adding to the gold demand.

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    read more at: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-05/28/content_12597083.htm
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 29, 2011
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    “ … As it stands now, price controls limiting debit card fees to a maximum of 12 cents per transaction will go into effect on July 21st. Since debit card fees currently average 44 cents per transaction, the mandated 73% reduction is a big deal for both retailers (positive) and banks (negative). …” From: http://www.investingdaily.com/id/18...igx=d.kac,stid.6804,sid.250664,lid.7,mid.3775

    Billy T comment: But politicians who expect consumers to benefit may be in for an unpleasant surprise as many smaller banks, at least, will terminate their debit cards. Merchants lose more with credit card’s higher discounts and payment delays so perhaps soon will not take credit cards at all.

    I.e. the use of cash will increase, until its value is declining too fast, then only gold and silver?
     
  18. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    2,424
    I started shorting silver last week. Things don't look too good for the gutter metal.

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  19. quantum_wave Contemplating the "as yet" unknown Valued Senior Member

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    6,626
    You better have a tight stop. When everyone thinks like you, the exit window for shorts gets pretty crowded when just a bit of bullish news hits the street.
     
  20. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    2,424
    General feeling is 50:50 either way so I've bet on the downside.
     
  21. quantum_wave Contemplating the "as yet" unknown Valued Senior Member

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    6,626
    So far, so good

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    . Good luck.
     
  22. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Made by private mint, not China. China's is small bar shown in prior post.
    But silver is silver and coins of it are in increasing demand. Its hard (or at least painful) to buy a loaf of bread with a bar of gold. Here is part of their promotion text:

    “… I picked up the phone to check in with my friend, the Deputy General Manager of the China Mint. Our conversation quickly turned to our unprecedented one-week sellout of the 2010 China Silver Panda MS70 First Strike® coins—and their plans for the 2011. …”

    PS I don't give link to source as I usually do as that would be promoting them or spam.
     
  23. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,721
    Bad Move. Part of me hopes you are right though.
     

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