What is next for Gold & Silver? (obsolute prices now removed)

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, Dec 5, 2009.

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Where is Gold price going next? (give why in post)

Poll closed Nov 30, 2010.
  1. To $1100/oz and then to $1000/oz before back to $1200/oz

    4 vote(s)
    30.8%
  2. To $1100/oz and then back to $1200/oz before $1000/oz

    4 vote(s)
    30.8%
  3. To $1300/oz and then back to $1200/oz before $1400/oz

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. To $1300/oz and then to $1400/oz before back to $1300/oz

    5 vote(s)
    38.5%
  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198

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    I voted the second choice. I think there will be some selling by soverns to pay debts making negative feed back on the price.

    Note if you think the 2010 price will not get to either $1100 or $1300 during 2010, say so in your comments. I did not give that as a vote option, mainly as most believe price will bounce around in that band. I.e. I am asking for votes that expect at least an 8% price change (100 points) to tell which way; and will it continue (go a second 100 points) before reversing back to 1200.

    Also note there is a thread, now sinking into the archives, predicting $1500/oz in 2009. Let's just let it sink and place any other comments on gold (or silver etc.) price views here in your comments. I.e. this is the "gold price thread" for next 360 days (most of 2010). (and perhaps longer, but with vote closed).
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 6, 2009
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  3. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Some one cast the second vote, for first choice, but did not post anything, so I do not know who is that "gold bear" but here is a Noble prize winning one:

    "... optimists say that the gold price advance is likely to continue and it is very much like crude price. Meanwhile, pessimists deem that gold price has been on a steady rise and would apparently be turned into "bubbles". But "Gold price will decline to less than 1,000 US dollars in the not distant future," said Professor of economics Robert Mundell at Columbus University in New York City, who had been awarded the Nobel Prize in 1999 ..."

    Quote from: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90780/91421/6832779.html
     
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  5. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    33,264
    I'd rather see investors putting money into the stock market, at least it would be going to work instead of some speculators pockets! Buying gold never helps the stimulation of the economy only slows it down.
     
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  7. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,882
    There is an old rule in the market, when everyone in the market is a bull, it is time to be a bear. I think gold is going down for the following reasons:

    - The economy is recovering so the global fear buyer will become fewer and fewer
    - Value investors will invest in higher yeilding products; money will come out of gold and into income producing assets.
    - I cannot find a bear in this market no matter how hard I try.
     
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    I agree with your logic but not your vote because I think the "economy is recovering" is also a consensus POV (and thus wrong). I.e. I am applying the same logic you are applying to gold.

    I don't know what will be the next shock that kills the recovery, but suspect it will be Either the growing number of credit card defaults (now more than 11% as I recall) Or the collapse many smaller local banks with commercial real estate loans, (Dubai's problem is nothing compared to how under water many are in the USA and rents of office space are still falling almost everywhere.) I would like to know what the fire rate of these under water properties is now, compared to normal times. (I sure would not invest in a fire insurance company now.)

    To joepistole: Here is a little help in your search for a gold bear: Look in a mirror.

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    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 6, 2009
  9. 786 Searching for Truth Valued Senior Member

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    3,089
    The economy is doomed and is recovering only in numbers. We'll see it all pan out in a year or two.

    Peace be unto you

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  10. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

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    7,721
    Wish I knew Billy, I'd like to know when to sell it.
     
  11. 786 Searching for Truth Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,089
    lol.... silver is way better investment.

    Peace be unto you

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  12. nirakar ( i ^ i ) Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,383
    If you discard the 1970s and early 1980s then inflation adjusted gold has never been this high in modern history and looks over valued.

    I hate buying into irrational assets and gold looks like an irrational asset. Buying gold is like buying Cabbage patch dolls or baseball cards or dollars in that Gold has value only because people believe that gold has value. Earlier when developing this viewpoint that gold is an irrational product I failed to realize how much vast quantities of gold jewelry the Indians want to buy.

    Gold prices don't correlate that well with bad economies. Even if gold prices did correlate with bad economies while the World may do just fine, in my opinion USA has 25 years of economic pain in store for the USA. Gold prices correlate better with inflation, monetary expansion and distrust in currencies than it correlates with recessions. I see a potential for global economic growth coupled with high global inflation and distrust in the enduring value of most currencies.

    If we look at August and September of 2008 we saw a bursting of the commodities bubbles leading to an unwinding of the Yen and dollar carry trades which lead to a rising Yen and Dollar and hedge fund redemptions which in turn lead to a general sell off of all asset classes in October and November.

    But what burst the commodities bubble? There are semi credible conspiracy theories that say the bubble burst began with JP Morgan Chase selling paper gold that it did not own. As evidence of some sort of manipulation people pointed out that the paper price of gold separated from the price of delivered gold which fell more slowly. Why would JP Morgan Chase be allowed to sell gold it did not own? The dollar was in a steady decline that was threatening to get out of control and destabilize the world economy worse than what transpired in the fall of 2008. Also the speculators had pushed the commodity prices up to the point that it was starting to hurt the real economy. The end buyers of commodities most notably the airline industry wanted something done about the commodity bubbles.

    Popping the gold bubble popped all the bubbles. I don't see the commodity bubbles as being in any way negatively impacted by the previous popping of the housing bubbles.

    There are a lot of people who are bearish on America and they and they hedge funds that they invest in are who I credit/blame for the gold bubbles. These America bears and general currency / fixed income bears are use leverage from the Yen and Dollar carry trades to bet on whatever they like better than investing in America and investing in fixed income securities. Some of the money from the carry trade is going into buying Dow stocks. The Carry trade binds all these investments together and makes them all rise and fall conversely to the Dollar and the Yen.

    So what happens to Gold? When people trust the various currencies again and when fixed income investments pay higher interest then Gold will fall back to it's normal inflation adjusted price range. This era and the 1970/early 1980s when the USA had just come off the Gold standard and had lost the Vietnam war and had high inflation was the other era of high gold prices. Except for a few years in the early 1980s the economy was not that bad in those days but the confidence in the stability and enduring value of the dollar was at a low that had not been seen again until the last few years. The low gold price 1989-1991 recession was as bad or worse than the mid 1970s recession but the confidence in the dollar was shakier in the 1970s.

    I think Gold will continue climbing. Other commodities need the recession to end before they can rise much because unlike irrational gold the other commodities have ties to the real economy. Traditionally oil and gold rise and fall together. If the economy improves look for oil to increase in price quickly.

    While I think Gold will rise and the dollar will fall I also think the governments of the world may intervene to slow the demise of the dollar again in order to maintain stability. We can't have every idiot becoming confident that they can bet on a falling dollar or the dollar will crash; so there needs to be periodic sustained upward spikes in the dollar to create enough confusion about the inevitable fate of the dollar so that the dollars decline can be stretched over decades rather than suddenly plunging. I expect that the world's leaders will periodically do something like authorizing JP Morgan Chase to sell paper gold that it does not own in order to prop up the dollar.

    Firms that sold Gold they did not own may have driven gold prices up buy buying paper gold to balance their books.

    I don't know if this alleged naked short selling of gold was a true story but you can find a lot written about it on the web. Unfortunately most of the writing is just unsubstantial noise.

    Do we trust the dollar? Do we trust the banking system denominated in Euros and other currencies to pay out interest at a rate higher than the inflation rate? Do we want to bank in obscure currencies? If we don't trust currencies then we are at risk to inflation if we bank in currencies, so what is plan B? Stocks, real estate? Do we want to be in Real estate now? If we don't trust the American economy do we want to be in the Dow? How much of your wealth are you willing to put in the stock of foreign corporations? The Dow was supposed to be safe for people all over the world not just for Americans. If the Dow is no good and real Estate is no good and fixed income is no good, and it is not time for commodities until global demand improves, and you already have enough risky emerging market growth stocks then what is there to invest in besides gold?

    Gold will go up not because gold should go up but because the alternatives are worse.
     
  13. S.A.M. uniquely dreadful Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    72,822
    Yeah I agree. Right now silver is a better investment.

    But as long as Indians are buying gold, its not going to go down

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  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,882
    I think that gold will probably stabilize at around $800/ounce because of the newly created demand for gold by the rapidly growing wealth in Asia. But I doubt that new demand is enough to keep gold at current levels.
     
  15. nirakar ( i ^ i ) Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,383
    Inflation adjusted dollars or nominal dollars? At $800/ounce from when to when?
     
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,882
    LOL, I tend to exclude myself when looking at the markets unless I can find others with similar view points. One does not a trend make.
     
  17. 786 Searching for Truth Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,089
    The subcontinent is crazy about gold... Marriages are what keep gold going, at least if you don't want problems in your relationship and relationship with other relatives.... There are so many traditions it is crazy!

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    Peace be unto you

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  18. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,721
    Money...paper or 1s and 0s on a bank computer, are irrational assets. They too have value only and simply because people believe they have value as you say about Gold. It's just a little harder to say..."print more gold" though.
     
  19. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,882
    Indeed they are, that is a major price driver. As these countries accumulate more and more wealth, they use it to purchase gold. Tradition dictates that a good husband keeps his wives stocked in gold. It is her insurance policy for divorce.

    Peace be unto you as well.
     
  20. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    "... Gold futures for February delivery in New York extended their decline since Dec. 3 to 6 percent, falling to $1,145 an ounce as the Dollar Index’s advance curbed the metal’s appear as an alternative asset. ..."

    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWITnnWqLgQ0&pos=1

    But that is just a net of professional "consensis bets" for Feb 2010.
     
  21. quantum_wave Contemplating the "as yet" unknown Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,625
    I voted to $1,100 and then back to $1,200. Wishful selection. I sold some gold and plan to move some of the proceeds to silver. The wire transfers seem to take forever when you need them "Now", so if we get more a dip in the next few days I should be able to buy silver lower and then get back to the upside.

    BTW, BullionVault now deals in both gold and silver bullion. My move is from paper gold to hard silver this time.
     
  22. thinking Banned Banned

    Messages:
    1,504
    why would anyone buy gold now though ?

    its at its peak
     
  23. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,721
    THAT is a very bold statement right now, considering many currencies are about to fail badly.
     

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