What If The Election Isn't Even Close?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by shnook65, Aug 23, 2004.

  1. shnook65 Registered Member

    Everyone knows the presidential election is going to be a squeaker. But what if it isn't? What if it isn't even close?

    Kerry is going to win the election by a landslide. Signs point to a gradual but powerful shift in the landscape that makes a Bush victory seem increasingly unlikely.

    National polls show a clear trend: Kerry has moved ahead of Bush. When almost all of the polls are pointing in the same direction, we can be confident that there's something real going on. here are about a dozen national public polls out there, and with the exception of Gallup, every one shows Kerry ahead, anywhere from 1 point to 8 points.

    The number of battleground states has grown since the beginning of this race, and in each case a state that Bush won easily in 2000 has become highly contested, complete with multiple candidate visits and a tsunami of television ads. Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado were all supposed to be safely Republican; Kerry could win one or more.

    In fact, there is not a single battleground state save Louisiana in which a non-partisan poll shows Bush with a lead larger than the poll's margin of error, while in many, things are trending Kerry's way. Bush won Missouri comfortably in 2000; Kerry now leads in polls there. Pennsylvania, the state Bush has visited more times than any other save Texas, now looks like it might not even be close, with Kerry garnering double-digit leads in some polls. Kerry also leads by a good margin in Michigan. Ohio was supposed to be the Florida of 2000, the state on which all could hinge; most polls show Kerry with a lead there.

    As President Bush tries to make his case to the American people, what exactly is he offering them? He's having a hard time making the case that his administration has been successful on any major issue. Gasoline prices are at record highs. Kerry seems to have already won the argument on the state of the economy, which is hampered by weak job creation and stagnant wages. Iraq continues to be a quagmire; a majority of Americans now believe the war was a mistake, and some time close to election day the 1000th American soldier will be killed there. On a range of domestic issues, most notably health care, Bush has neither accomplished much meaningful nor offered any compelling plans for a second term.

    Undecided voters are likely to break toward the challenger at the end of a presidential race. If you haven't made up your mind by now about which candidate you're going to vote for, it's probably because you don't like what Bush has done but Kerry hasn't yet convinced you to vote for him.

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  3. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

    Keep dreaming! Bush is going to win, some way some how, he did it before. If Bush loses by a large margin I'll fall and my nees and look to the sky and say "you are up there!" :m:
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2004
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  5. Prisme Speak of Ideas, not of things Registered Senior Member

    Things that could change this election:

    -Significative economic recovery from now to November
    -Terrorist attacks
    -What happens in the GOP at new york
    -The electronic voting booth (without paper trails)

    I see such events as being trump cards for either side. Will the americans interpret another terrorist attack as a sign that Bush is a failure in national defence or will they say that 'in such desperate times' they would prefer to have a war president than a peacemaker such as Kerry?

    If the recovery happens and the price of gas goes down, will the people see this as proof that Bush made a deal with the Saudi's or will they think that Bush promises over the past 4 years are finally coming into effect?

    If there is a great riot in new york, will this go down as an "example of extremist and out of control democrats event" or a "moronic GOP convention that should have taken a rebulican state to hold their convention"?

    If a significant number of 'ATM' voting machines leave no paper trail behind, then it would be easy for well placed comptrollers or anarchist hackers to modify the results.

    I'm just glad the list got this short with only two months to go. In any case, it has happened in Canadian and American history that neck-in-neck polls were proven incorrect by land-slide final results.

    Hope Kerry wins, or I'll be stocking up on survival equipment in order to see trough the next unevitable Bush catastrophe.
    (Mistakingly declaring war (n-korea), declaring war based on faulty and coerced intelligence, failling to respond to energy crisis which caused power grid failures in the north and the California situation, alienating the international community etc..)
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2004
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  7. Working Class Hero Skank Monster Registered Senior Member

    He wont declare war on North Korea. More to the point, China wont let him. I think theyd rather annex the place than the US get their hands on it.
  8. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

    The election won't be close. Bush will win in a landslide. Kerry got no bounce post DNC, let's see how Bush does. Between the Swift Boat Veterens for Truth and Kerry's own record (I actually voted for the $87 billion, before I voted against it) he's going to implode. Not to mention that he exudes a haughty arrogant quite unappealing persona that's voters are going to like less and less the more they see this guy. For better or for worse it's gonna be four more years of GWB.
  9. Mystech Adult Supervision Required Registered Senior Member

    Just eating up the conservative propaganda, and letting them play on your ignorance of the facts, aren't ya, madanthonywayne? It's kind of sad that there are so many apathetic no-nothings out there that Bush's standing in the polls could even rival Kerry's.
  10. Repo Man Valued Senior Member

    As the bumper sticker says: "Vote Republican- it's easier than thinking."
  11. top mosker Ariloulaleelay Registered Senior Member

    Mystech, regardless if it's propaganda or not, people, a good chunk of people at that, think this about kerry. Thats how the right views him.

    Of course, they forget to see that Bush is a religious nut case that believes he can bring on armagoedden by agitating the war in the middle east with Israel. After the death and destruciton and the smoke clears, Jesus will come down from heaven to reign for 1,000 years. It won't affect american lives (at least those that accept jesus christ as their personal savior) because god is on america's side.

    And we're worried about whether or not Kerry was actually fired at by the viet cong?

    What happened to this country?
    America, where are you?
  12. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

    Oh yeah, it's so sad that so few people KNOW as much as you. For instance, the people at Gallup:


    and the people at Time:


    and don't forget the LA Times:


    But don't worry, the lefties over at NPR are still on your side:

  13. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

  14. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

    No, but there is no news organization to the left of NPR. I thought I was being balanced by throwing their poll into the mix.
  15. ElectricFetus Sanity going, going, gone Valued Senior Member

    if public radio is leftist that definitely says a lot about the public or at least the public that willing to fund a non-commercial news and entertainment organization.

    I would say based on the polls now, its going to be a dead heat, but what the polls will look like on election day could be very different, I think we will have to wait and see. All predictions so far have not been based on good evidence.
  16. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

    I've given to PBS, and they never contacted me on programing decisions. Back in the days before BBC America, they'd make me feel guilty during pledge drives for watching Monty Python and not paying up. So I gave a few times. NPR is leftist because journalists in general are leftist and, freed from the corrupting influence of the market, the leftist journalists are free to be as leftist as they want to be. (did I say leftist enought times?)

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