Victorian bushfires

An event in the world a little different from what we usually have here. One that's currently worrying me.

In the state of Victoria, Australia, today, we have just had the hottest day on record (i.e. for at least 150 years), topping out at 46.4 degrees Celcius (that's 115.5 Farenheit). The heat has been combined with high winds from the North (inland Australia), leading to extreme dry conditions (6% humidity).

Extreme dry conditions + extreme heat + high winds = extreme bush fire risk in south-eastern Australia.

In the state we currently have 10 major bush fires (wildfires, for the Americans) currently going, and literally hundreds of smaller fires scattered around - many of them most likely deliberately lit by arsonists.

My home is sitting a bit to the west of a major forest fire that has been burning for a couple of days now. Luckily for me (though not for many other towns around the area), the wind today has been a North-westerly for most of the day and is now a south-westerly, meaning that the largest fire is being blown away from my home.

However, there are many fires around the place, and currently there's also a "small" (80 ha or couple of hundred acres) fire to the south-west of my home - the worst possible direction given the prevailing wind.

I can currently see and smell the smoke in the air all around. Local time here is now just after 10 pm. Some neighbouring areas are without electricity and frankly I'm surprised that my home hasn't lost power (yet). I've seen water-bombing helicopters flying over my house a few times tonight.

At the moment, fingers crossed that my house won't come under ember attack from the fire to the south-west. If it does, our only real option, for various reasons, will be to leave for a safer place and hope the house survives.

This is quite scary. The weather is cooler now since the wind change, and I'm hoping we might even get a little rain. However, tomorrow, although cooler, will still be another day of extreme fire danger.

Looking at the bigger picture again, I challenge the climate change deniers to explain why heat records continue to be broken where I live. Last week we had 4 or 5 days in a row with temperatures in excess of 40 degrees C - another all-time record for the state. The question is: is this summer weather the new normal, given the obvious reality of global warming?

Meanwhile, is there extreme cold weather happening in the Northern hemisphere? If so, could climate change be a factor?

Wish me luck for the next few days. I might need it.

 

The problem with that is that you risk losing your house and everything you own, when it is possible that active defence by somebody on the scene may save it.

Statistically, people who choose to stay and defend their property generally do quite well in bush fires. Of course, depending on the fire, it is not always a sensible thing to stay. It's a hard decision, but the authorities purposefully leave the decision to each individual to make, on the basis that those individuals know they own property and circumstances best.

Yes, it is. It just depends on what you regard as the "last minute" in your particular circumstances.

Certainly in a raging bush fire it is FAR safer to stay in your house than to attempt to drive out of the fire area.

Where I live I'm not too far from safer areas, and unless fire is coming from all directions there are multiple escape routes available. If it is coming from all directions, it's better to stay put anyway. So, I don't plan to leave it to the last minute if my house is really under threat, but on the other hand I want to keep an eye on things rather than just up and leave when a few simple actions might make all the difference between having a house and losing everything.

 

It's a multi-stage process. First is being prepared - clearing away material that may burn from around the house (leaves, grass, sticks and other flammable materials), having plenty of water available and a pump to pump it with if/when the electricity goes out, and so on.

At the time, one of the main threats is not direct burning but ember attack - bits of flying and burning debris from the forest that's alight. Embers land in the house gutters or around the house and then set fire to the eaves or other parts of the house. To protect you need to wet the whole house (including filling gutters with water) and its immediate surrounds so that any embers that land are put out. It requires a constant patrolling around the house with water at the ready during the fire threat. If you're going to do that, of course, you need to wear sensible clothing etc.

If you're in the direct line of the fire, there's not much you can do apart from trying to protect the space around the house. But a fire going at full tilt might take as little as 10 minutes to pass the house. While the front is passing, you stay inside with all windows and doors closed. After the front has passed, you go out and try to put out any spot fires that remain a threat.

Luckily, Australia has probably the best trained and prepared firefighters in the world, due to long experience of bush fires, which are very common in summer here. So, you hope that you won't be entirely on your own if your house is threatened. You hope a fire crew or two will show up and help defend your home. Of course, when there are many, massive fires, resources get stretched to the limit, so you can be on your own.

The fire fighters know all about how bushfires work and how to try to contain and control them so that they don't spread any further. Back-burning (the counter-fire you mentioned) is one technique that can work if you're expecting the wind to change in a particular direction, so that the fire, when it turns, has only already-burnt ground to try to spread to, which won't work. But whether that technique can be used depends very much on the wind conditions - and it's only for the professionals.

 

All the very best of luck James. I can understand why you would be concerned and, well, terrified. The prospect of losing your home is never something anyone would want to have to consider.

Having faced bushfire threats in the past when living in Victoria (and having dated a fireman who specialised and had fought many bushfires in Australia and overseas), the only advice I can give you is to be prepared for the absolute worst. Ensure all your papers and important documents and small items and treasures such as photos, etc are packed in the car, ready to go at a moment's notice. Make sure all the gutters are clean and cleared out of all debris that could light if hit by an ember. Remove anything around your house that could catch fire if an ember hit it. That includes door mats that you wipe your feet on, any timber furniture next to the house, any firewood that might be near the house, etc.

With high winds that can gust and change in a gust, the risk of embers is quite high. So you need to make sure that there is nothing near or abutting your house that could catch alight.

If you see the fire coming a bit too close for comfort or you notice a few too many embers flying in your direction, you can also take towels, sheets or old clothing and block up your downpipes of your house. Then take a hose and fill up all the gutters with water. Even if you have to evacuate, it is a precautionary measure. Douse the roof of the house down constantly and if you have sprinklers, place them on the roof and turn them on. Also give the garden beds a good soaking to wet down any mulch that may act as tinder. Wet down doors and windows and place wet towels or sheets in front of each door leading to the house, to prevent embers from igniting timber doors from the outside.

Most importantly, don't try to save the house if the fire does come your way. While losing one's house is a horrible experience, believe me, I know how that feels and it is heart wrenching, the most important thing is the safety of your family and yourself. Houses and items can be replaced. People cannot. If it is a bit close, it might be best to evacuate any loved one's earlier and leave a car there for you to get out quickly if you need to. My ex may have been an arse, but he knew about bushfires and he'd drilled it into my head.. Bizarre how such things stick..

My thoughts are with you, James and with your family. I hope all goes well for you and that you all remain safe and sound in your home. Good luck.

 

It depends really. If you take precautions to protect your house, such as making sure everything is soaked down, gutters full of water to douse any embers that get into them, grass is mowed short so that it poses as less of a risk, everything removed from next to the house so that it doesn't catch fire and set the house on fire, sprinklers on the roof, soaking towels in front of the doors, etc, you can, if you live in a brick house and are lucky, possibly survive it. But it's not something that is recommended. If a firewall is coming towards your property, you are best to lock up the house, take the precautions to save it and get out of there as soon and as safely as you can.

At the moment, it is feared that there could be up to 40 dead in the fires in Victoria. As well as over 100 homes destroyed.

I have a lot of family and friends in Victoria, some of whom are in the thick of it, so to speak. We have been told by them in sms messages to not call them as they need to keep the lines clear. So for those of us who are far away, it is stressful, and for them, absolutely terrifying as fires burn out of control around their properties.

 

Thankfully, things are now better near my home than they were last night. The fires that threatened us have been brought under control, and we've had a little rain. The temperature now is a much nicer 20 degrees C (70 F).

However, there are still many fires burning throughout the state, some of them far from under control. Thousands of hectares have been burnt and are still burning. At least 40 people have been killed, and as far as I know at least one major town has been almost completely destroyed.

If there's any good news, it's that the weather looks like being cloudy and moderate for the next few days, with winds blowing basically in the same direction they are now. If we get some decent rain, that will help put out the remaining fires. In the meantime, thousands of people, many of them brave volunteers, are currently still out fighting the fires, some having not slept for at least 24 hours.

I think I have been very lucky where I live, and hope the worst is past for us.