Very low probability of 2 advanced societies at same time in near universe

Discussion in 'Astronomy, Exobiology, & Cosmology' started by lbiarge, Feb 24, 2013.

  1. origin Trump is the best argument against a democracy. Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,009
    OK yoda, you should listen to grumpy, the point is this is ALL speculation we only have proof of life existing on one planet in the universe. Intelligent life may be common in the cosmos or the earth may harbor the only life in the universe - we have no way of knowing. I personally think it is a good idea to keep looking.
     
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  3. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,106
    i agree with origin, we don't know.

    be nice if there are other civilisations out there. whether we will ever communicate with, let alone be able to understand, them is another matter.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solaris_(novel)
     
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  5. orcot Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,429
    I doubt solaris is a good is a good reference I found the book very uninteresting abouth the subject of miscommunication between intilligent civilisations
     
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  7. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,106
    it was only given as a "for instance". i guess you could look to our level of communication with other species here and how badly we are at it. and they share dna with us. one thing i think we can be certain of is that aliens will be alien.
     
  8. Grumpy Curmudgeon of Lucidity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,876
    orcot

    While I would never say never on this subject, I doubt(seriously)that mankind will ever exceed light. The best we are likely to do is approach light speed. The physics of accelerating mass means the mass of the vehicle goes up, requiring even more power to accelerate further. Near light speed this increase in mass and subsequent increase in needed energy goes toward infinity. That means that even for microscopic mass, light speed is unreachable, it would require more energy than is in the whole Universe to accelerate one electron to lightspeed. Even supernovas, quasars, hypernovas and Black Hole collisions don't have enough energy to accelerate a single electron to light speed, we have no access(and probably never will)to even a minuscule fraction of that kind of power.

    That's the facts. And speculation about travel in other dimensions is fine if you are a sub-atomic particle with access to the quantum, as that is where the extra dimensions are rolled up. As of the present, we don't have a clue how to access them in the macro.

    Grumpy

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  9. origin Trump is the best argument against a democracy. Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,009
    You don't need to go near light speed for interstellar travel. If you could [somehow] move at 66% the speed of light travel time to Alpha Centari would have a ship time of about 3.5 years. That ain't bad. Even a 20 light year trip would take only about 15 years ship time.
     
  10. orcot Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,429
    Grumpy
    you mixed my statements abouth interstellar travel and FTL travel

    Interstellar travel does not necesairly mean fasther then light travel

    For Interstellar travel I would like to refer to the Fission fragment rocket (link) far from ready this gives me hope that within my lifetime people will be able to build a starship that could reach the stars in less then a 100 years and if this thing might manage it (afther all 4.21LY at 5%C =84.2 years). No doubt the future will bring even better designs.

    Now abouth the other one: FTL, (fasther then light) travel might not be impossible wormholes have been predicted for decades and recently their has been talk abouth a alcubierre drive last year, I'm fully aware that both are hypothetical but both are mathematical valid and in agreement with general relativity that said in 2012 scientist proposed to set up a experiment that could measure spatial distortions caused by a alcubierre drive. However this goes completly over my head and whilst I do not particalairy expect major breakthroughs I'm sure we can increase or understanding of this at least mathematical possibility.
     
  11. Grumpy Curmudgeon of Lucidity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,876
    orcot

    You would not survive a Wormhole transit, your mass would be spit out the other side as plasma, and that's assuming wormholes even exist. And FTL travel is probably impossible, if the most energetic things in the Universe don't violate lightspeed in any way, likely we will never do so either.

    As to interstellar travel, it's not likely for centuries, it makes much more sense to send robot probes so we don't waste our time on stars of little value, other than science. And we know of the best type of starship, one that gathers it's propulsion and energy mass from the space it is travelling through. We could not power a starship with internal fuel or reaction mass for more than a few weeks at best. Anti-matter is the best fuel(on an energy/gram basis)and even that won't get the extended 1 G acceleration you are assuming in your scenario. A Bussard Ramjet(or similar scheme)can do that.

    Grumpy

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  12. orcot Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,429
    I'm amazed the limits of wormholes would be known. I'm content with saying that I do not known. and to be honnest I think your wrong.

    A tricky subject if everything moved slower then the speed of light then the entire universe should be observable however it isn't hence things do move fasther then light I agree their are many things that are wrong with this statement but maybe it helps. That said right afther the big bang you could say all the energy in the universe was at one point and then it exploded if I remember correctly during the inflation period the universe grew orders of magnitude fasther then light it then took even longer before the universe expanded to such a size that all the mass in the (young) universe was far enough apart so it shouldn't collapse into a singularity because of gravity. Yust saying that under extreme conditions matter can act rather spooky.
     
  13. orcot Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,429
    ah yes something like the starwisp thatt would be cool http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starwisp

    I will read up on the Bussard ramjet tough
     
  14. Grumpy Curmudgeon of Lucidity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,876
    orcot

    Wormholes are in the math of Black Holes, we don't yet know if they actually exist. But the math also indicates that to pass through one matter must be crushed to microscopic size, making instant plasma out of your space craft. And the math also indicates that they are highly unstable, requiring huge amounts of energy to maintain. I personally think they are connected to the only "White Hole" we know to exist, the Big Bang, I think they are manifestations of the other half of the dimension of time(we can only travel forward)and complete the time loop back to the beginning through every Black Hole singularity. We already know time stops at the surface of a BH, what if it then tunnels back through time to the BB singularity?

    Everything travels slower than light(except radiation, photons travel at light speed), and we actually can see the entire Universe(at least theoretically)and it's 13.7 billion year history. The Cosmic Microwave Background radiation was released when the Universe deionized(protons and electrons came together to form atoms)about 300,000 years after the BB, the Universe was opaque until then. That was the very first light in the Universe and we see it in every direction at 13.7 billion years. In a few billion years the first galaxies will slip over our light horizon and the CMB will stretch out and attenuate to undetectable levels, but until then we can see it all. Eventually, all but the galaxies in the local, gravity bound group will do the same, but that will take hundreds of trillions of years, the stars are likely to be gone by then and the only action will be around Black Holes. If the Universe has purpose it is the making of Black Holes, everything else is just detail.

    Baby Universe picture...

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!



    The inflation period lasted just a few microseconds, and it likely occurred before the constants(like light speed)were operative(even gravity wasn't working during Inflation). The inflation occurred under the conditions of the place/time/environment(if that's even operative)that caused the BB. The Inflation period is likely the only evidence we will ever have about the conditions that caused the BB. It was only at the time that inflation ended that the light speed limit was established, as well as the other constants' values.
     
  15. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,106
    i too don't believe we will ever have FTL travel, warp drives etc. the maths might say these are legitimate answers but whether they are physically possible is another matter. do tachyons exist? near lightspeed may be possible in the future but i just don't see a star trek future for humans.
     
  16. Lady Elizabeth Registered Member

    Messages:
    42
    I'd wager there are alternative means to move from one part of the galaxy to another - with AI soon to exceed the processing ability of a human mind, my money's on them to discover such a technique ..... most likely, so beyond our capacity to reason, we'd simply not have a clue how it worked, even if the concept was explained to us in a frightfully dumbed down version.
     
  17. Boris2 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,106
    what? we have little if any AI now, let alone soon to exceed....
     
  18. orcot Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,429
    Verbally weak (on my part) but I refer to this link and simply state that the discussion is still open and even if the concept of the alcubierre drive would be proven impossible I still think somebody will come up with something.

    Maybe yust in the humanoid aliens, I imagen that considering the vast challenges of discovering actual intelligent aliens people will start side projects and revive species as the neanderthalers their probably between 10+ humanoid species that could be considerd intelligent (to get to such a large number I also count a revival of homo sapiens sapiens before certain bottleneck events that have reduced our genetic variation, eastern neanderthals were also somewhat different then western neanderthals, further one you get Denisova hominin and the red deer people it's a surprisingly large list.
     
  19. lbiarge Registered Member

    Messages:
    44
    "At any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonized in just a few tens of millions of years." - in Fermi paradox. with this I not need make more comments. This man not considered the need of combustible?

    You consider that we have a probably millions years civilization, what combustible?

    In our planet the spatial race begin in 1957, from there the man as put the foot in Moon and make a hole in Mars. This in 56 years.

    How could make comunications a civilization that would exist in a galaxy, with a probably longer of 100000 lightyears like our Milky way?

    What would be the interest for conquist many planets with the cost in materials and combustible?

    etc, .etc ...

    And all this would be with only 1 civilization, not 2 like say the post
     
  20. wellwisher Banned Banned

    Messages:
    5,160
    One theoretical way to travel and communicate across the universe, in a lifetime, is if we could separate space-time into space and time which can act independently of each other. If space could act independently of time, you can travel anywhere without a time or in zero time. If you could move in time independent of space, you could communicate anywhere in the universe in a synchronized way in time. With space-time connected we have various limitations such as the speed of light. But the speed of light is not a factor if we use only only potential in time or distance, since the speed of light depends on space-time (both have two dimensions).

    For example, two synchronized particles or particle pairs can synchronize in time even though there should be a time delay due to distance. The reason is they are making use of excess time potential superimposed upon space-time. Electron transitions in atomic orbitals will quantum jump. In this case, there is excess distance potential in space-time allowing it to do this instantaneously in time. We only need to scale up so humans can take advantage. Special relativity is based on space-time and velocity.
     
  21. Dinosaur Rational Skeptic Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,619
    There are good reasons to conclude that more than one technological culture in a galaxy is very unlikely & that many galaxies have no tecnological cultures.

    Hence, the probability of two technological cultures being able to communicate is very close to zero.
     
  22. Grumpy Curmudgeon of Lucidity Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,876
    wellwisher

    Actually, no scientist would "theorize" the separation of time and space, spacetime is one thing, all it's parts required to describe reality. You cannot separate time and space.

    The man not understanding what he was speaking of. Fermi was a pretty good scientist, but he had no idea of the fuel situation, he just assumed "any practical pace" without considering how that would be achieved. It's like me saying "If man could achieve near light speed..." without considering the physics of doing that(which we don't at present control). The reality is we will have to work very hard just to get to any of the nearest stars, and such trips would take generations of passengers on a one way trip. It's likely that it will never get better than that. There is a Science Fiction book named "Macroscope" by Piers Anthony, It's pretty out there in some of it's plotlines, etc. but I mention it because he has a hard science description of what it would take to launch a large interstellar trip on a Bussard Ramjet. To start out they take the gas giant planet Neptune to use as the gas tank required to accelerate to speeds where they could light the ramjet. It then extends a huge magnetic funnel in front of the ship that causes the ionization of the hydrogen atoms in front of the craft, funneling them to the ship by the magnetic attraction and the speed of the ship, where they were fused immediately behind the craft, which then rode the shockwave of a continuously exploding hydrogen bomb. ""Tau_Zero"" by Poul Anderson is an even better Science Fiction book that deals with the Bussard Ramjet in a hard science manner.

    Grumpy

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  23. orcot Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,429
    I'm not sure how correct the math on this site is (only the middle paragraph is relevant).

    But a starship that uses anti matter would need 5.54 times the non proppelant mass (divided evenly in matter and anti matter) to accelerate and decelerate to 0.5c that is a lot of anti matter. But nothing on a planetary scale.

    One thing is certain we are a long time away from a optimum launch date in the wait calculation let's hope we can launch before the year 3117(see link to know how I got to the year 2007+1110)
     

Share This Page