Turkey

Discussion in 'Politics' started by sculptor, Jul 16, 2016.

  1. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Coup:
    Your thoughts?
     
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  3. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    Still trying to process.

    That was ... impressive.

    I just watched it go from, approximately, The government is no longer able to fulfill its duties, to, Uh, we didn't actually just say that, to, Well, this is an opportunity to clean up some problems in our armed forces, in rather quite dizzying time.
     
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  5. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Shades of "Bay of pigs"?
     
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  7. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    I have mixed thoughts on the issue. On the one hand, I sympathize with the coup leaders. On the other, I fear they may have botched the coup. And who likes a botched coup? Botched coups are never good especially for the coup leaders. If this doesn't end well for the coup leaders it doesn't bode well for democracy in Turkey, and that's definitely bad news all the way around. It may mean the end of Turkish democratic aspirations.

    Turkey's military is constitutionally charged with preserving Turkey's secular democracy. If the coup leaders succeed, it puts Turkey in a state of limbo at best and chaos at worst. Neither option is good. Blood has been shed and no matter how this turns out, more blood will be shed. It's sad no matter what happens. The American government has said it supports the democratically elected government i.e. Erdogan's government because it was democratically elected.

    We will need to wait and see how this plays out and hope for the best.
     
  8. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    Do you mean turkey day ?
     
  9. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    could be
     
  10. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    These military officers should have secured Erdogan first and foremost, but they didn't and that was a huge mistake.

    The fact that Erdogan is free speaks very poorly of the conspirators' competence.
     
  11. Bells Staff Member

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    The coup that could.

    Frankly, this will only make Erdogan consolidate his power even more. If they thought it was bad before, it is nothing to what he will be like now once this is over.

    It's a shame. He needed to be removed from power. It wasn't a full military coup. It has every appearance of being a small faction in the military sticking to it's true goal, which is to maintain Turkey as a secular democracy responding to Erdogan's swing to the religious right and autocracy. Granted "coup" and democracy do not go hand in hand. But he needed to be stopped. Sadly, he will now just become and be even worse.
     
  12. Dr_Toad It's green! Valued Senior Member

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    Sometimes they do.

    Most often the power void is filled by players who have an economic interest in the outcome. Let's listen to Russia, Syria, and the US right now.

    Trippy quotes a Maori saying, "Let's listen and see what happens." Where is he anyway? I will PM him.
     
  13. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Erdogan seems to accuse Gülen behing behind the coup. Gülen sits in the US. IOW, Erdogan thinks the US is behind the coup. Which makes sense, given that Erdogan has recently turned sides and tried to revive his relations with Russia.
     
  14. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Which is what happened for Castro after the failed"Bay of pigs"
    (Perhaps the reference was a tad vague?)
     
  15. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    How do you know what Erdogan thinks? Are you channeling Erdogan?

    While it is true that Erdogan blames his political foe i.e. Gülen for the coup, thus far there is no evidence to support that allegation. This coup attempt is a good excuse to further prosecute his political enemies and as others in this thread have stated. I too fully expect Erdogan to take full advantage of it. It's what dictators do. Putin did it. Castro did it. Hitler did it, and the list goes on.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gülen_movement
     
  16. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    I have to admit that I was kind of cheering for the coup to succeed. The Turkish military have been the main force behind modernization and secularization, since the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate were abolished at the end of WWI.

    Erdogan knows the military's historic role and has methodically gone about purging the upper ranks of the Turkish military of secularists and replacing them with Islamists. That's probably why the military wasn't united behind this coup.

    The aftermath isn't going to be pretty. Erdogan is going to turn into a strong-man dictator (wearing the velvet glove of democracy for as long as he can, no doubt) and the last secularists will be quickly purged from the military and his government. I've already seen news where he has removed 2,745 judges, in response to this coup, presumably to be replaced with Islamists loyal to him. (He's had his eye on the judiciary for some time, since it was too independent and he didn't control it.)

    This coup gives him the justification that he needs to turn Turkey from a secular course to a course very much like Egypt was taking under Muslim Brotherhood rule.

    Bottom line, I fear that Turkey has just become much more of a problem for Europe, for the Middle East and for NATO.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2016
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  17. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Sadly, I have to agree.
     
  18. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Staff Member

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    Having a Drink with Conventional Wisdom

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    Click to put your hands all over.

    I don't criticize this point, but I also reflect on recent domestic American political discourse incipiently treading around the difference between compromise and corruption.

    There was a weird, brief delay that some noticed; President Obama didn't respond for an hour, with the inevitable suggestion that the Administration was tossing coins and waiting to see how this came out, because the primary concern for American foreign policy in this situation is that Turkey remain generally stable.

    But it was even easier to notice that statements from the President and Secretary of State, as well as the former Secretary of State and likely next president, all focused explicitly on the fact that the Erdogan administration is democratically elected.

    This also, by the general analysis, would seem to be the opinion of the Turkish people who took up their president's call and began reclaiming the cities; they may not like him very much right now, but they did elect him and they intend to elect the next president. For the time being, they appear to have decided a coup is an unacceptable transition.

    Personally, as much as I sympathize with these sentiments expressed against Erdogan's descent into Islamist bully politics, I'm holding with the conventional wisdom° and what appears to be the will of the Turkish people.

    Turkey has always been politically fraught and frustrating, and difficult to comprehend, from the American voter's perspective. The curious blend of regionally traditional politics and the e'er emerging "modern" international template°°, especially for those of us accustomed to the Cold War, whatever it takes to keep Turkey, approach really does keep the question of the nation's optimal course rather quite occulted.

    It is difficult to support someone on Erdogan's apparent course, but he was legitimately elected, and the People just stood for him; it is furthermore my opinion that the dangerous potentials of drastically unsettling Turkey, as forced transitions of power tend to cause, in the current geopolitical context, is extraordinarily dangeorus, and not just for Turkey and its people.

    To the other, this is also how the U.S., historically, comes to back strongmen. If we were actually any good at extricating ourselves from authoritarian cycles abroad, it might not be so either worrisome or unjust.

    Everything goes to hell in Turkey, the United States goes to war.

    That's my calculation.

    Daa'ish does not get to be World War III. Losing Turkey to chaos will escalate what should always be an unthinkable prospect.
    ____________________

    Notes:

    ° It happens; conventional wisdom is not necessarily wise, but for the time being it coincides with my understanding of the American regard for Turkey.

    °° Yes, I know those are vague terms; that's the problem with trying to precisely describe what is mysterious.​
     
  19. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    No, I simply read various news, and if I find a claim which I cannot verify otherwise, I prefer a "seems to accuse" instead of an "accuses".
    Indeed. It may be even a faked coup, I would not exclude such a theory completely.

    Whatever, https://twitter.com/ImranGarda/status/754249318790533120?ref_src=twsrc^tfw claims:
    which is not really good news for Turkish-American friendship. But I couldn't care less.

    I see no serious WW III danger in Turkey. Nobody wants to attack it, nobody needs it, except the Kurds, but the Kurds have even some US support. Russia had a reason to start a war when Turkey has shot the Russian plane, but shown no interest, and accepted Erdogans apology. Iran has no interest too, Europe does not even count, Saudi-Arabia is a friend, with Israel relations have been normalized. Armenia is happy about chaos in Turkey, because they are enemies, but is far to weak to attack, same for Syria and Iraq. So no danger of war, except civil war which we already have. Civil war weakens Turkey, and this makes everybody around happy. Except, possibly the Ukraine.
     
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    A couple of things, that's not news and that's not Erdogan. Remember, you accused Erdogan of accusing the US of supporting the coup.

    Really...? I think you are being a little disingenuous. You love anything which would cause a rift between the US and its allies as that benefits your beloved Mother Russia i.e. Mother Putina. The US-Turkey relationship has been strained as Erdogan has moved more towards autocracy and away from democracy. I suspect it will remain strained.

    If Turkey wants to extradite Gülen, there is a process for that and Turkey will need to comply with that process. I doubt the US will extradite Gülen no matter how much that irks Erdogan. In order for the US to extradite Gülen he will first need to provide the US government with credible evidence of guilt.

    Whatever happens Turkey remains a NATO nation and as long as that is the case, Mother Putina wouldn't dare to invade Turkey. That hasn't changed. So no, there will be no world war over this incident. Erdogan will consolidate his power and become more dictatorial and the world will go on. The US will continue using its bases in Turkey to prosecute its attacks on ISIS targets. Life will soon return to normal unless you are a member of the Turkish army.
     
  21. Bells Staff Member

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    I didn't even see your post to be honest.

    I cheered when I heard news of the coup. I thought finally, his descent into authoritarian rule was at an end and Turkey could shift back towards more secular rule.

    He will now just consolidate his power. He has already started to do so by removing the judges. His foray into the military and removing many generals was probably a means for him to garner more control of the military. There is now talk of the death penalty and he is going on about eradicating those involved. Thousands have been rounded up.

    I suspect he will just double down now, and the next election will have few people or parties in any position to mount an opposition to see him voted out of power. If the coup had been successful, Turkey had a chance. Its failure will just mean that Turkey will have a dictator speaking of democracy while doing everything in his power to destroy said democracy.
     
  22. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Is it likely that Erdogan planned this and set it in motion to root out possible internal enemies?
     
  23. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    Is that you got out of the German News ? That is what I got.
     

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