Tough Times

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Mickmeister, Jun 27, 2008.

  1. Pinocchio's Hoof Pay the Devil, or else.......£ Registered Senior Member

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    I'm sure i read somewhere about a commission suggested the 4.4% pay hike but havn't since so can't be sure (don't suppose anyone else knows?).....if that was the case then it would suggest to me bribery at work...


    I've just read this from the sydney herald from last year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...rkers-must-wait/2007/06/19/1182019118070.html

    it is sickening that the pensioners have had no rise in pension yet they(polies) get $153 a week, it's the same in this country for pensioners but they have the added problem of cold weather and huge fuel bills on top....
    they did do a pay as you go meter scheme for those who are unable to afford adequate heating but guess what.......they charge more per unit on the cards than they charged on the quarterly payment per unit, so those who are not well off end up paying 30% more annualy.....

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    uke:....

    It is failiure globaly of the political system this is our planet, these delusional savages who think they have control are in for a big shock when those they hide behind move out of the way and judgement passed over their ignorance and incompetence, I think we are witnessing a once in a 1000 year occurance alikened to the fall of Rome,Mayan or any other extinct way of rule over life...they have failed and have no where to go but hide behind the police and media.


    the cost of £80-100 million which goes into their pockets is purely paid for by us and that doesn't include councilers pay in towns and cities so the actual total is probably £150-175 million pounds a year people pay to be worse of the following year.....
     
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  3. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

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    Guess it depends where you live. People spend money like it's on fire in the Toronto area. I'd say we got a loong fucking way to go before it's Hard Times. At least hard times like I saw in 1980s Alberta, when nearly 50% of people in Oil or oil related business, lost their jobs in a period of 2 years.
     
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  5. Orleander OH JOY!!!! Valued Senior Member

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    LOL, Luci. I was kidding.

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  7. Mickmeister Registered Senior Member

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    And where did the word recession come up? We're not in a recession.
     
  8. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    You would rather them to get screwed than to screw others?:shrug:
     
  9. CutsieMarie89 Zen Registered Senior Member

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    The minimum wage in California is about to be lowered for certain government jobs in order to keep taxes from sky rocketing, but I think politicians should just come clean and admit that they have to raise taxes regardless of their political affiliation. I'm not sure there is anyway around it. I can't speak for the rest of the country, but California seems to be getting worse and worse by the week.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2008
  10. nirakar ( i ^ i ) Registered Senior Member

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    I think California is in a recession.
     
  11. kmguru Staff Member

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  12. kmguru Staff Member

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  13. EndLightEnd This too shall pass. Registered Senior Member

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    Its only going to get worse...
     
  14. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Kenneth Rogoff, was former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and currently is a professor of economics at Harvard University.:

    "... "The worst is yet to come in the U.S...The financial sector needs to shrink; I don't think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job.'' {Actually 9 banks have gone under now}

    The U.S. housing slump has triggered more than $500 billion of credit market losses for banks globally and led to the collapse and sale of Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm. Rogoff said:
    The government should nationalize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's biggest mortgage-finance companies, which have lost more than 80 percent of market value this year. {Actually with yesterday's loses, they are down 84 and 87%, possibly in part due these comments by Rogoff.} Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae "should have been closed down 10 years ago,'' he said. "They need to be nationalized, the equity holders should lose all their money. Probably we need to guarantee the bonds, simply because the U.S. has led everyone into believing they's would guarantee the bonds.'' ..."

    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a08cRVrtu86I&refer=home

    Billy T comment: I agree with all of this, especially the last sentence. If the Freddy and Fanny's insured bonds are allowed to default, then forget about selling any more US treasury paper to anyone. I.e. the US immediately goes into economic collapse. (terrible run-a-way inflation with need to issue new currency, perhaps 100 old dollars to be one "new dollar.")

    If this happens now, then I would then be wrong in my prediction, made several years ago, that this collapse will occur between October 08 and October 2014 - I am never wrong.

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    Above article also notes:
    "Banks repossessed almost three times as many U.S. homes in July as a year earlier and the number of properties at risk of foreclosure jumped 55 percent, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data. U.S. builders probably broke ground on the fewest houses in 17 years* last month, according to a Bloomberg News survey."

    Billy T comment: That the ever optimistic builders have "thrown in the towel," is actually good news, except for the sellers of washing machines, furnaces, copper pipes, etc. - part of the reason why copper is down more than most other commodites.
    ---------
    *More details at:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amUSDP1za1vM&refer=home
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 19, 2008
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Thinking about the posibility that 100 old dollars would be required to get one new dollar the following idea occured to me:

    When the US budget is running a deficit, the newly printed dollars should be printed with red, not green ink. Clinton would be the most recent president to issue green dollars. GWB would be 100% red - Now I know why the Republicans are the "red states" in the TV's vote maps.

    My suggestion would make Joe American understand better what his elected officials are doing to his grand children. What do you think?
     
  16. kmguru Staff Member

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    related story:

    As Oil Giants Lose Influence, Supply Drops
    Oil production has begun falling at all of the major Western oil companies, and they are finding it harder than ever to find new prospects even though they are awash in profits and eager to expand.

    Part of the reason is political. From the Caspian Sea to South America, Western oil companies are being squeezed out of resource-rich provinces. They are being forced to renegotiate contracts on less-favorable terms and are fighting losing battles with assertive state-owned oil companies.



    And much of their production is in mature regions that are declining, like the North Sea.



    The reality, experts say, is that the oil giants that once dominated the global market have lost much of their influence — and with it, their ability to increase supplies.



    “This is an industry in crisis,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, the associate director of Rice University’s energy program in Houston. “It’s a crisis of leadership, a crisis of strategy and a crisis of what the future looks like for the supermajors,” a term often applied to the biggest oil companies. “They are like a deer caught in headlights. They know they have to move, but they can’t decide where to go.”



    The sharp retreat in all of the commodities’ prices over the last month, about 20 percent, reflects slowing global growth and with it reduced demand for more oil in the short term. But over the next decade, the world will need more oil to satisfy developing Asian economies like China. The oil companies’ difficulties suggest that these much-needed future supplies may be hard to come by.



    Oil production has failed to catch up with surging consumption in recent years, a disparity that propelled oil prices to records this year. Despite the recent decline, oil remains above $100 a barrel, unimaginable a few years ago, causing pain throughout the economy, like higher prices at the gas pump and automakers posting sizable losses.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/business/19oil.html?th&emc=th
     
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Good link / post Kmguru. I will extend the discussion:

    Much of the world's known oil reserves is under the control of some of the countries with the worst records of management for this natural resource. For example, Saudi Arabia's rulers used excessive oil production rates (with US encouragement) to drive the price down to $10/ barrel during the first Bush's war against Iraq. While Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was the excuse for that war, it was really more about oil and selling in Euros etc. Few Americans know that Kuwait was a state of Iraq that broke away so Saddam in some sense was just trying to keep Iraq's territory in tact, but surely he too, like GWB, was more motivated by the attempt to control the oil.

    Anyway, back to my point: The Saudis took oil out so rapidly to dirve the price down and punish Iraq that they seriously damaged their fields. - much that could have been recovered will never be as now the porous rocks that hold the oil have collapsed to low permability. - why despite many promisses to increase production, the Saudis never have significantly - they can not.

    Second example is Mexico (Everyone already knows about the throwing out of the oil companies in Venesuala, etc.): The left leaning Mexican government has for years taken the oil profits and spent them on social wealfare programs, not on even adequate maintance of the oil infrastructure, much less new explorations. This is probably more why their production is now falling than the decrease in the in ground oil.

    There is one bright spot:

    Brazil's pre-salt layer oil discoveries. At cost of 1.6billion dollars, 15 wells have been completed (two more are still drilling down to those great depths). This oil is light and much more easily made into gasoline than Brazil's existing oil. All 15, widely spaced, have found the same oil. Opinion is growing that it is one enormous field covering at least 800 square kilometers. Currently most estimates of the resevoir are about 80 billion barrles, but some go as high as 300 billion.

    To put that in perspective, at current $113/barrles price, 300 billion barrles of that light oil could pay off the entire US debt! Brazil has many current blessings and now seems to have the winning ticket to the global oil lottery! I just hope the US does not dream up osome reason to invade Brazil. This talk about the Amazon belonging to humanity is begining to scare me. Perhaps I will need to move to China to be both economically and physically secure. :shrug:

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    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 19, 2008
  18. vslayer Registered Senior Member

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    wow, it seems like my area is the only one really benefitting from the higher price of oil. with the increased wealth in the middle east the demand for dairy products has increased, almost doubling the payout for milk products, therefore increasing the demand for workers not only in farming, but just about every agricultural support industry, unemployment is at the lowest ive ever seen it and wages(for the people in agriculture anyway) have gone up over 10%
     
  19. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    In what period of time? Is that real or nominal wage?

    I think you speak of Russia, if so and you can document some of your statments with references (even in Russian) please contribute to the BRIC+ news thread. See it at:

    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1969754&postcount=18

    PS as you can see at the above link, Russia is not the only one rapidly advancing economically as the US sinks.
     
  20. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

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    Doesn't a find like that drive home the importance of resuming exploration and drilling in the US? Who knows, we may have a similiar oil field out there waiting to be discovered.
     
  21. Roman Banned Banned

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    Yeah.
    Anecdotal evidence is so much more convincing that economic indexes...

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  22. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Possibly, but oil fields are not now (were years ago when oil dirlling used a wooden derick and small motor) found by wild cat drilling. There are lots of clever accustical echo processing computer programs working over the results of line charge explosions, tiny gravity variations, trace chemical seeps, etc. and plate tectonic theory (to learn where the deep ancient ocean floors were) to guide where to drill.

    There were years of this sort of thing prior to Brazil's PetroBras deciding to spend more than $100,000,000 to drill the first well. The drill ships that can get down to and thru the pre-salt layer where the nice light oil is rent for $650,000/ DAY! (Their rent is less than half the cost.) I owned stock in PetroBras, but sold it all about 50 days ago as I understood that it is years and high cost oil these speculators are so excited about that they drove up the price to its all time peak. I may buy it back when it is beaten up a little more as others realize this too.

    Even if the US is fortunate enough to have some large off shore deposit of oil, it will be at least a decade before the first drop is on land. I expect (as often stated) that the US will be in deep depression first - not able to afford to drill for it, but I could be wrong about this.

    US refineries are running at capacity now. Trying to build a new one will take a decade or more also. (However, some of the existing ones can be significantly expanded in ~4 years, if China has not made the price of steel too high. - Their largest supplier, Brazil's Vale, is enjoying a 65% price increace on the exported ore compared to last year's contract. - I honestly doubt the US can even expand existing refineries, given the tight money, collapsing confidence in the Treasury repaying with even the same purchasing power the bonds when due - the Fanny/Freddy bail-outs etc., etc.

    SUMMARY: US is doomed with no possiblity of recovery now, in MHO. I.e. it will not make any difference in your life-time if there is a big US off-shore oil deposit or not.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 20, 2008
  23. kmguru Staff Member

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    Early this year, they found a very large deposit of Natural Gas in the Shreveport area. As I was talking to some business people this morning, the city is gearing up for 15,000 new jobs.
     

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