Tory or Labor can win the election?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Saint, Nov 26, 2019.

  1. Benson Registered Senior Member

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    What I find similar between the US and the UK is that in government, the minority have been and tried to over rule the majority, aka tyranny.

    So the UK had a Remoaner PM (Theresa May) to deliver Brexit and the minority MP's scupper every move. And the US Democrats have been continually trying to overthrow a duly elected president.

    As Boris won with a healthy majority, I look forward to leaving the EU. Prosperity ahead.
     
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  3. Vociferous Valued Senior Member

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    Um, Ilhan Omar.
     
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  5. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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  7. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, it's possible, if Bozo opts for a quick EU deal that puts the UK in in a similar position to Norway: in other words, what the ERG calls a BRINO deal.

    If he gets no deal - which is the only alternative if he actually mean what he says (don't laugh) about concluding a deal in 12 months - then poverty and a massive national debt beckon.

    2020 will be a year that is all about Brexit, the trade deal options, fishing, whether the necessary checks for N Ireland can be brought in in time, etc. Should be fun for all those who thought that by voting for Bozo we could put a stop to all that.

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  8. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    The one glimmer of light from the election result (I was unashamedly one of the Lib Dem voters hoping for a hung parliament, a second EU referendum, a Remain result in that, and then another general election!) is that BoJo has such a significant majority that he shouldn't be beholden to the hardliner ERG group, that May most certainly was.
    He should be able to strike a much softer split, if that is what he feels is right for the country, which I'd like to think is the case.
    It also means that he can probably use up some of his political goodwill in agreeing to extend the transition period beyond 12 months.

    But a country like the UK being in a BRINO deal like Norway is pretty embarassing, to be honest: you take all the rules you previously did, but don't get a seat at the decision-making table, and all for what will likely be a similar annual subscription.
    And we won't be able to make deals with other countries, which was one of the big selling points of Brexit.

    Ah, well.
    Roll on 2020: it can't be worst than 2019, can it??
     
  9. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Agree with your analysis. However, striking deals with other countries was always just one of the Brexshitters' unicorns. The EU gets far better trade deals than the UK ever could on its own, due to the size of its market and thus its negotiating muscle. So in fact the regret cost of sticking with the EU on trade will be a win for the UK.

    It is a bit embarrassing to be a rule taker, but that's a fact of life really anyway. Things like product standards will always be driven by the requirements of the largest market for the products. For the UK that will always be the EU, whether we are a member or not, for reasons of simple geography. We have one of the world's big power blocs on our doorstep and they will de facto make the rules that we end up living by.

    The foolishness is in choosing to withdraw from having the right to shape those rules - as the UK actually did to a large extent in the past. But that is what we have chosen to do. [shrug]
     
  10. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    30,994
    The Republican Party has been a minority Party devoted to racial bigotry and religious fundamentalism for more than fifty years now.
    Nope. Not a powerful public figure and long tim leader of her Party.
    Maybe Mitch McConnell? Newt Gingrich? The didn't make as much sense as Corbyn, but they are anti-Semitic etc.
     
  11. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    trump has publicly endorsed johnson
    the voters have voted for him

    if you removed trumps public comments of support, would the result being any different ?
    i dont think so.
    the voting history seems to suggest a middle of the road conservative majority is coagulating between the middle right & the far right in a very middle of the road voter base result.

    do British people sheepishly follow american personality stereo types ?
    now there is a jolly hot argument
     
  12. Bells Staff Member

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    24,270
    Bozo is currently pledging what?

    To leave the EU by the end of January or something along those lines?
     
  13. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    So UK will brexit on 31 Jan?
     
  14. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Two things: to leave the EU formally by 31st Jan 2020 and, more significantly, to complete the negotiations on the future relationship with the EU by the end of 2020.

    All that has been negotiated so far is the Withdrawal Agreement. This allows us to leave on 31st Jan and sets the terms for settling outstanding bills, how to manage the Irish border, and the rights of EU and UK citizens in one another's territories. It also provides for the the UK to enter a transition period, during which nothing changes, while the future relationship is negotiated. This has a nominal end date of the end of next year but can be extended for up to 2 years more.

    Bozo is saying he will not extend it. However, given that the EU process requires any agreement to be ratified by each member state, the proposal would need to be ready by the middle of the year or so to meet the deadline. All trade experts agree this is virtually impossible, especially since Bozo has announced he wants the freedom to diverge from EU norms on state aid, workers' rights, environmental standards and product regulation. Such divergences would lead to a potential price advantage for UK goods traded into the the EU, which they would see as unfair, so consequently they would react by imposing import tariffs, severely limiting the scope for a "free trade" deal, which Bozo says he wants. It makes no sense.

    What we could be faced with, at the end of 2020, is a crash-out with no deal, after all, or else a "bare bones" deal, of such limited scope that it would be very damaging to UK industry.
     
  15. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    fat chance

    they will be lucky to reach thier own shoe laces to pretend to be tying them up as they wait in line for school lunches put on by billytrumpers pie factory
     
  16. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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  17. Vociferous Valued Senior Member

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    More unsupported claims.
     
  18. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    How do you think it will be stopped?
    The laws have passed through the Commons - with some amendments that now make it illegal to extend the transition period beyond the end of 2020 - and it will be ratified by the Lords imminently.
    From 1 Feb 2020 we can no longer just opt to "cancel Brexit", as we would already have legally left.

    If the fat lady isn't yet singing, she's walking out on stage with the introduction to the aria already playing.

    As Exchemist says, what this initial stage is is basically just the divorce agreement.

    Think of it this way:
    The EU and the UK are on the verge of signing the divorce papers, having agreed the financial settlement, and having broadly outlined how they want to interact in the future.
    We currently live in the same house, but as of 1 Feb 2020 we will not be legally part of the EU.
    The next 11 months is a transition period intended to give enough time for us to find a new house, new car, new dog, some willing tenants (other trade deals) to help ease the financial loss, and to agree on a means of sharing custody of the kids (e.g. security, trade, research etc).

    Bozo has "promised" (*) that by the end of 2020 we will have completed our trade negotiations with the EU.
    It's possible.
    But only if we agree to several things:
    - alignment with all EU rules and regulations for those things we want to trade
    - free movement of people
    - being beholden to the European Court of Justice in matters of dispute etc.

    The politicians tout our current alignment with the rules and regs as one of the main reasons it can be done quickly... but this will only be the case if we agree to align to all future rules and regs as well, which the UK do not want to do; we want to be able to strike new deals with other territories, some of whom have very different rules/regs etc.

    So I see us getting to around June/July before the politicians admit that we're unlikely to complete things this year, and that will bring the "no deal" cliff-edge front and centre again.
    And I can see us getting to November, or even December, before either Bozo gets Parliament to negate the rule preventing an extension, or Parliament take over as they previously had done in order to prevent a "no deal".


    (*) given what else he has promised, large sacks of salt are seemingly to be provided to every home in the country to use when they hear him speaking.
     
  19. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    i did not say it would be stopped
    i meant it is not likely to happen by that date
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2019
  20. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    12,521
    If Scotland secedes from the Union, I'll apply for a Scottish passport, not least because of people like you.

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  21. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Agree with all of this except the very last bit. Bozo has a majority of 80 or so. I see no prospect of Parliament taking over to stop a no-deal exit this time round. All the "Sensibles" have been purged from the Tory Party (or rather, the English Nationalist Party, as it has now become.) So the mad Cummings will be free to get Il Duce Bozolini to march the nation over the cliff.

    The only question, really, is what degree of damage this does and how soon the effects start to show themselves. There will no new trade agreements with non-EU countries of any significance until this hapens, because all the potential counterparties will want to see what deal we get with the EU before they show their own hands. Obviously the more desperate we are, the harder the bargain they can strike. (Nobody does anybody any favours in trade deals, least of all - moronic comments by Trump notwithstanding - the USA, who have some of the toughest and most hard-boiled negotiators on the planet.)

    I would expect a sort of "managed no deal" exit can be arranged, that avoids most of immediately visible issues of empty greengrocery shelves in the supermarkets and people dying from lack of medicines, but not a great deal more. Bozo and Cummings will try to make sure of this minimum, because voters will notice. I expect the UK auto industry to atrophy over the next decade. It already faces challenges from the move to electric vehicles and the new EU-Japan deal that allows Japanese OEMs to export finished vehicles to the EU direct from Japan. I think the extra supply chain hassle will be enough to kill it off, by degrees, probably through lack of investment in the assembly of new models.

    So much for "unleashing Global Britain".

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    Meanwhile I am looking forward to seeing how Cummings gets on with his plan to slash the size of the Civil Service, given that the government's programme involves (i) spending billions on infrastructure projects in the North and (ii) recreating a great number of standards bodies to replace the EU ones that have done this bureaucratic work for us, on behalf of all EU states, for the last 30 years.

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    Last edited: Dec 23, 2019
  22. Baldeee Valued Senior Member

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    And again I ask, what do you think will stop it (happening by that date)?
    It is currently the legal default position that we (the UK) will exit the EU on 31 Jan 2020.
    What do you think will stop our exit happening at that time?
     
  23. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    7,447
    lol
    i was not sure if the rebel alliance was alt-right or tea-party-esque or some type of religious privateer group.
    i did enjoy them throwing spanners in the works to really bring out the need for proper representation.

    Repeating the same question because the person you are asking is not bending to your dogma is not likely to get you the finer end of information you wish to profit from for free.
    (hoity assertion of narcissism duely noted.)

    scottish passports would be amazing
    i think the scotish people deserve them.
    economically too small to have their own currency though.
     

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