Time for AGW deniers/doubters/skeptics to get real

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by James R, Dec 10, 2009.

  1. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

    Messages:
    39,426
    [bolded portions are my highlights]

    Climate emails: a dirty war swirls around 'swindle'
    BEN CUBBY
    December 10, 2009

    link to full article:
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/so...-war-swirls-around-swindle-20091209-kk69.html

    ....

    This ["climategate"] conspiracy theory was dismissed with the contempt it merits by Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the Copenhagen summit this week.

    But the accusations of fraud will persist because the so-called ''debate'' on climate change has veered into the realms of fantasy. The fog on the public relations battlefield has obscured the real question: how to cut greenhouse gas emissions in a fast but sensible way.

    The sum total of both the doom-laden warnings and the ever more hysterical claims from climate sceptics of a global conspiracy is an impenetrable wall of noise.

    This is a pity, because the case for climate change action doesn't need spin. It doesn't need reference to ''alarmists'' or ''deniers''. Participants in the so-called debate around climate change need to grow up.

    The wall of noise plays into the hands of the vested interests who want to see nothing done. It is used to frighten people whose jobs depend on digging coal or smelting steel.

    ....

    Climate science may be complicated, but it's not rocket science. It is in the public domain, open to informed scrutiny, and it has been there for decades. The self-styled climate sceptics movement - not a term climate scientists approve of - has had ample opportunity to debunk arguments that the world can no longer ignore.

    We know that carbon dioxide, some other gases and water vapour trap heat from the sun in the atmosphere. We know this because it can be measured, and replicated in lab experiments. We know that the warming trends we have detected are closely correlated with the rising carbon dioxide content. The computer models used to predict future climate change scenarios take these simple concepts and some other variables, such as solar activity, into account. The reason we know that these models work is that we can model past climate scenarios using the same criteria and match the results up against the existing temperature records. If your model starts with the conditions we know to have been present in the year 1900, and produces the conditions we know to have existed through the 20th century, it is a fair bet it works.

    Even if climate models are discounted as evidence, direct observation of the natural world adds to an already compelling case.

    We know that the ocean is struggling to absorb carbon dioxide content because we can measure it, and measure its effects on marine life. We can measure the extent of decline in Arctic and Antarctic ice, rising sea levels and melting glaciers. We can measure changes in forests and deserts. We can measure these results against the level of warming that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere leads us to expect, and they match.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded it is 90 per cent certain that the current cycle of climate change is being driven by human activity. It's fifth assessment report, discussed overnight in Copenhagen, will further bolster the evidence. Few scientific theories approach this level of certainty.

    Opposing the mainstream scientific view means advancing the idea that there is a mysterious X-factor that mimics the warming effect we would expect to see from our greenhouse gas emissions. It is still a slim possibility, but not one delegates at Copenhagen are taking seriously. It would be a happy day if they are proved wrong, but no one would be advised to hold their breath for that.​
     
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  3. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

    Messages:
    10,890
    Oh happy day.

    I've been hanging out for an article such as this.
     
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  5. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,738
    What do you think, Trippy?

    The case of the deniers is that CO2 levels and climate are related, but that increased temperature results in increased atmospheric levels of CO2 and not vice versa.
    Do you think that people who deny that CO2 causes climate change, have a reasonable case, or are they like the tobacco firms who used to deny that smoking caused cancer?
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2009
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  7. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

    Messages:
    10,890
    What do I think?
    I think the mechanism for CO[sub]2[/sub] adding heat to the atmosphere is well established in physics, so the only debate can be what efects that additional heat will have.

    I think the claim "Global warming was a politically driven issue from its inception" is a bald faced lie.

    I think this argument is based on faulty logic, in fact, I'm 98% certain that it fits the definition of a particular logical fallacy, I just can't think of the name of it. Claiming that CO[sub]2[/sub] levels have historically lagged behind temperature changes doesn't actually prove that CO[sub]2[/sub] doesn't cause any warming. At most it suggests that, historically CO[sub]2[/sub] may not have been a 'first cause' for temperature change, but that falls far short of proving that it caused no temperature change, especially when one considers that the possibility exists of 'other factors' leading to the apperance of a lag where none actually exists.

    I don't remember the full details, but, climate change, and global warming due to the greenhouse effect specifically, were first politicsized in 1969 by Nixon. It's my understanding (I have a couple of articles somewhere that go into the history of the politics of the issue) that some of the first people, or the first people to start denying climate change were the tobacco companies.

    Addendum:
    I also don't think the "zOMG VOLCANOLOL!!!" argument is worth spit. Why? Two reasons mainly.
    1. In order for it to be valid, you'd need to be able to demonstrate that the volcanic activity Mauna Loa was not only increasing, but doing so at an increasing rate, or, that the chemistry of the magma was changing at an increasing rate.

    2. It offers no mechanistic explanation for the fact that the same trends can be observed at marine surface sites.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2009
  8. Asguard Kiss my dark side Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,049
    Do you mean Confirmation Bias?

     
  9. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

    Messages:
    10,890
    Actually, I think it's more like Ignoratio Elenchi
     
  10. D H Some other guy Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,257
    You are conflating the idiots with the reasoned skeptics. There are complete idiots on both sides of this debate. The arguments of Lindzen and Choi, Roger Pielke Sr. and Jr., Roy Spencer, William Gray, just to name a few are not so easily put aside.

    The recent temperature rise (post 1975) is almost certainly attributable in part to our dumping CO[sub]2[/sub] in the atmosphere. However, to get to the alarmist claims in the IPCC, the IPCC has to posit positive feedbacks. Those alarmist claims are not justified if negative feedbacks dominate the climate rather than positive feedbacks.

    Sans unproven technologies magically becoming proven, or killing of 80% of humanity, there is *no way* we are going to be able to cut our carbon emissions by 80% in the next 40 years. Without extraordinary proof that the extreme projected (not current) warming will occur, economic reality will trump whatever happens in Copenhagen. Push too hard and you will lose. Pushing for an 80% reduction is pushing too hard.
     
  11. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,461
    Agree 100%. Much better to put some money into researching alternative energy sources than to destroy our economy trying to reach some unobtainable reduction in carbon output.
     
  12. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,721
    So what if climate change IS real.


    Kyoto, and all the other "economic" "carbon tax" solutions are nothing but a jack on so-called rich countries and do nothing to combat the environmental problem!

    You cannot have an ECONOMIC SOLUTION FOR AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM.

    No one has put forth the true solution to human waste and modern inefficient use of resources: Destroy consumer capitalism. It's needed regardless of "Global warming" or it's causes. Consumption without need or regard for our own health and well being must be defeated.

    It's not about "save the planet" it's "save ourselves". If they sold the whole thing to the public in a truthful manner...for truly selfish reasons we must reduce our consumption, it might meet with less resistance. Trying to force people to consume less for the sake of "global warming" is a fucking waste of time even if the world was a dictatorship.
     
  13. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

    Messages:
    10,890
    No, I'm not, I've stated repeatedly that I agree that this is the case (not specifically in this thread mind). I fully agree with what you're saying regarding idiots on both sides of the fence, hence some of the things i've had to say about, for example, Al Gore and his piece of fiction.
     
  14. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,738
    Thanks Trippy.
    There is another fallacy, based on confusing contiguity with causation.
    Two things may occur together because they have the same cause rather than one thing causing the other.
    A cloud causes rain and a cloud causes thunder (roughly).
    But rain does not cause thunder or vice versa.

    We understand clouds pretty well, so are likely to make this mistake, but such errors are a major reason for wrong medical diagnosis.


    ......the first people to start denying climate change were the tobacco companies.


    That would be a supreme irony, wouldn't it?
     
  15. s0meguy Worship me or suffer eternally Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,635
    the climate reacts very slowly to the changes in the atmosphere. if earth is going to be less habitable in our lifetime, it will be, whether we reduce our pollution of the atmosphere or not.
     
  16. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

    Messages:
    10,890
    cum hoc ergo propter hoc I'm familiar with it, my job involves doing a lot of statistics, however, in this instance, a well estabished causal mechanism exists, so, we know there's a correlation, and we know there's a causal mechanism.

    I'm not sure I see the irony?
     
  17. GeoffP Caput gerat lupinum Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,087
    Well, actually that's a lower level of certainty than normally used by most scientific work, but that's more than reasonable for me. The Hadley lot probably got dragged into the fallacy of 95%. Happens to everyone. Literally everyone.
     
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    No one is talking destroying the economy except those on the right trying to scare people again.
     
  19. draqon Banned Banned

    Messages:
    35,006
    Quoting James R. "
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded it is 90 per cent certain that the current cycle of climate change is being driven by human activity. It's fifth assessment report, discussed overnight in Copenhagen, will further bolster the evidence. Few scientific theories approach this level of certainty."

    Exactly! Few scientific studies conclude with 90% of anything on this massive of a scale. This just shows how corrupted this "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" is. Its really sad that these bureaucrats are using this oncemore for their own advantage. Because as we all know it takes millions of dollars to combat the so called green-house-caused-by-humans effect, and who is going to get the money? Why who else but them.

    I really hate these sort of people, they have probably initiated these so called "hacked-emails" bonanza.
     
  20. D H Some other guy Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,257
    Mandating an 80% reduction in CO[sub]2[/sub] output without having the foggiest idea of how to accomplish that doesn't count?
     
  21. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    LOL, more alarmist scary stuff. Who said, "without having the foggiest idea"? There is an idea. There are a lot of already know technologies to accomplish the goal. Additionally, it is not an overnight reduction, it is a phased reduction over a period of a decade or longer.

    The suppositions upon which your question is based are false or at the very least misleading and incomplete.
     
  22. weed_eater_guy It ain't broke, don't fix it! Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,516
    You know what, who cares?

    I mean, who cares if climate change is human-driven or otherwise? Whether or not it is or isn't our faults, don't many solutions to "climate change" go hand-in-hand with the ideas of energy independence and the conservation of resources anyway?

    Regardless of whether or not we're causing rapid climate change, many of the more intelligent proposed solutions to the supposed emissions problem do follow that metric. Environmentalists propose cars that run on alternative, locally-produced energy. Environmentalists propose alternative, renewable energy sources that are, for the most part, very distributable, and would result in power grids that are very robust against wide-spread power outages, strengthening the electrical infrastructure. These technologies can be developed by government incentives that help boost economies with new industries, rather then simply imposing emissions restrictions, which of course would hinder an economy by requiring factories to retrofit with technologies that may or may not have been developed yet.

    I mean, the other side of the argument is that we're not the cause of climate change, or at all responsible for it, and so we can keep going as is; burning oil like there's no tomorrow, sold to us at prices that will spike devastatingly any decade now, and which is shipped to us largely from places that make the news every other day with the words "___ more soldiers were killed in ____ this week..."

    Personally, I'm on board with the skeptics, I don't think humans contribute enough to cause climate change. But so what? Many of the "eco-friendly" technologies being developed and proposed solve alot of other problems other then just our emissions outputs. This is why I really don't participate in the climate debate anymore, because it doesn't freaking matter: the consequences of acting in favor of one side of the argument are awesome and can strengthen individuals and nations alike. On the other side is just inaction and stagnation.
     
  23. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,738
    1. What about arguments like this:
    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
    which suggest that human contributions to the greenhouse effect constitute only 0.28% of the total?
    Do you accept that his figures are correct, or has he fudged them somehow?

    2. Irony.
    It would be ironic if Tobacco companies, who spent years denying that smoking caused cancer, resulting in the deaths of millions of people, then went on to do the same with the global effects of CO2 emissions.
     

Share This Page