The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

Discussion in 'The Cesspool' started by Futilitist, Aug 24, 2015.

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  1. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    I'm not sure what "other things" you are referring to, but the "other things" I see are global warming and people's responses to it, along with the realization of just how much OPEC was manipulating prices. The landscape of 2005 implied a sharp peak, whereas today's landscape implies a flattened, widened peak.

    Concerted efforts at carbon reducton plus the recognition that fracking production reacts to demand and prices more clearly than conventional oil make the resurrection of Peak Oil and Peak Oil Apocalysm in a few decades less certain: oil production may peak, while regular people may not notice or care.
     
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  3. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Indeed. Are we past Peak Coal, I wonder? (I hope we are, for reasons of climate change.) But nobody notices or seems to think that threatens civilisation. I suspect Peal Oil, and then Peak Gas, may pass eventually without us noticing.

    Do you know, I read yesterday that in the UK last year 25% of the electricity was generated from renewables? 25% already! And that we have apparently, 10,000 charging points for electric cars on our road system! Seems to me the diversification of energy is well under way, in a low profile way.

    And then there is Peak Beard of course.....which I saw in an article about trendy East End hipsters....
     
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  5. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    Oh, dear God, I hope so!
     
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  7. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    i find funny that you are fussing over something that is usual. you simply do not acknowledge that everything you are arguing about in this post is simply a usual cycle that occurs within every year at this time, during summer, and then in fall. remember your pathetic nonsense from yesterday?--look at the front month of oil now.

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    (shakes head)

    and in reality, at this time, during campaign seasons-- the indices and futures usually move lower when the choice for presidents is becoming clear. again-- a usual cycle during the campaigns.

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    (shakes head)-- carry on.
     
  8. Ophiolite Valued Senior Member

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    The figure for Scotland was 57.7%. You chaps down south have some work to do to catch up.
     
  9. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    yes, of course--which oddly enough is a range from 11 to 66 dollars. a six handle range?

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    (shakes head)-- comical.
     
  10. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Well it would be: cold and windy, with hardly any people.

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  11. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    as to fut's " shortfall comment--something interesting-- http://www.forbes.com/sites/judecle...ch-oil-does-the-world-have-left/#fe7b0c85dc5e :
    " JUN 25, 2015 @ 09:05 AM //59,574 VIEWS
    How Much Oil Does the World Have Left?

    The short answer to the question posed is….a lot. Or at least way more than many groups and people out there want you to believe. Today, the world is swimming in oil, and prices have been sliced in half over the past year. “Peak oil” theory for production is predicated on the work of legendary geologist M.King Hubbert, who in 1956 employed his now famous/infamous “Hubbert curve” to predict U.S. petroleum production would peak in 1970. For many years he appeared to be correct, but the “shale revolution” is on the verge of proving him premature.

    False pessimistic predictions regarding future oil production dates back to the beginning of the modern oil era in the mid-1850s, and can quickly ensnare the best experts with the most resources available. To illustrate, the Joint Operating Environment 2010 report (“the JOE report”) from the U.S. Joint Forces Command, the leader for the transformation of U.S. military capabilities from 1999-2011, projected a 10 million b/d global supply shortfall for 2015. Now, just five years later, we have a 2-3 million b/d surplus.
    " [...] " The main reason for “being so wrong” about oil’s future availability is the over-reliance on analytical techniques that fail to appreciate petroleum as an economic commodity powered by the constant advance of technology. "
     
  12. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    so when you clearly stated this : " What I said was correct. After 2015 we will very likely cross over into permanent depletion. Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area. "-- you were/are wrong then?
    so whom is the one that put your own words above, in your mouth? and also if it was not a prediction, then what are you correct about?
     
  13. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    i can simply subsidize the cost with other forms of revenue made.

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    (shrugs)
     
  14. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    you need to comprehend up-stream and down-stream.
     
  15. Ophiolite Valued Senior Member

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    And, in some vocabularies, mid-stream. Futilitist understand almost nothing of significance about the industry.
     
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  16. origin Trump is the best argument against a democracy. Valued Senior Member

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    I will assume this line [ But after 2021, civilization (or whatever is left of it)] is a joke. As for the rest of the comment - of course they will be able to afford to produce oil because they will raise the selling price oil based products!
    Sure it would be, if the oil companies didn't raise their prices, but they will because they are not insanely stupid.
    Sure it will. We are starting to move to other sources of energy and as the price of oil rises due to the easy oil being a thing of the past, we will move more and more to alternative energy. There will still be millions and millions of cars that are running on gas.
     
  17. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    yes-yes--because of this thing that has been occurring for centuries now-- inflation.
    again, i am still attempting to figure out what this etp predicts.
     
  18. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    as for the jun16' oil contract, i just entered at 43.51 on the buy side for a weekly trade or such--to around that 50/51 area as a target--this may not move up(it may even tick down lower where i will add more if so) until next week, when the buyers will attempt to push it to that 50 area. usually their moves occur on mondays into tuesdays, then it will slow-up on wednesday(as everyone awaits for more of an indication). on fridays, either morning or around the close, they will finish their attempts into that following week.
     
  19. krash661 [MK6] transitioning scifi to reality Valued Senior Member

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    i have a buy side working order in for more contracts at 42.48-- there should be a small fight at 42.50 down to 42 area that can send this to 41 where a strong buy side level is at and where i will add more also.. if not then the small fight at 42-42.50 area will show support and buyers will come in from there--whether that happens today is the question, but i doubt it-- probably small ticks tomorrow and then moves on friday morning. but this last part is just a thought.
    also it is " lunch time " for wallstreet so there is a chance some sort of move will occur after the wallstreet lunch session is over, which should be here in about a half hour.
     
  20. origin Trump is the best argument against a democracy. Valued Senior Member

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    My guess is this clown Bill Hill realized that when you first hit oil the high pressure of the reservoir forces the oil out of the ground and over time as the oil pressure subsides more energy must be used to pump the oil out. He took this obvious concept and then combined it with his complete lack of understanding of entropy, energy, economics and logic and cobbled together his meaningless and moronic EPT trainwreck. Apparently, the gullible actually spend cash to find out about this garbage. Come to think of it he is probably just a huckster separating money from the gullible.
     
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  21. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    I've read his paper. Sections of it look like something out of a reservoir engineer's handbook and I would not be surprised if the formulae given for entropy increase in a reservoir as extraction proceeds make sense. But I'm not a reservoir engineer or indeed a chemical engineer, so I can't say. What however does not make sense is to extrapolate from the thermodynamics of one well to the making of thermodynamic inferences about all the wells in the world, which are a mixture of those near exhaustion, those in mid-life, those that have just been tapped and those yet to be drilled, when there is no database of the thermodynamic state of each one to allow averages to be made. This is imbecility no.1.

    Imbecility no.2 is the utter economic illiteracy of Hill, in asserting that the oil price is linked in any analytical way to this pseudo-thermodynamic state of the world's oil wells that he has dreamed up.

    Imbecility no.3 is assuming that all the supply and demand factors, both market-led and geopolitical, have no impact....because, you see, it's the thermodynamics, stupid.

    It is, as you say, a crock of shit.

    Actually I see a parallel between this and the pseudo-mathematical constructions of Bill Dembski, on the subject of "complex specified information", i.e. his attempt to provide an objective definition of the "design" in nature that ID creationists claim. In both cases, I suspect, the idea is to bamboozle the public with something too complicated and dull to pick apart, while giving the faithful, who are too ignorant to understand it, something impressive-looking to quote. This fits the use Fute has made of it in this thread - he clearly doesn't understand it at all.

    One further interesting thing: I note Fute periodically rants about "right-wing" conspiracy. From briefly researching this topic, it looks to me as if these pseudoscience ideas are the pet of a number of what you might call "eco-Marxists". For example there is a book I came across called "The Entropy of Capitalism" by one Robert Biel, which seem to have some of these notions in it:-

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=syY8ccfoxQgC&pg=PA135&lpg=PA135&dq=oil reservoir entropy&source=bl&ots=rax1nJztii&sig=TCyOlXTXdPQ4k928AL1NznTW9cU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiAvrbOnMHMAhXMJcAKHRdgCSkQ6AEINzAF#v=onepage&q=oil reservoir entropy&f=false

    The only reviews I can find of this turgid tome are from eco-Marxist websites. Here's an example: " “Overall, The Entropy of Capitalism constitutes an important contribution to the debate on the (un)sustainability of capitalism, and offers an interesting complement to similar theories, like Gunther Teubner’s idea of ‘systemic addiction.’ The book is very thoroughly researched, and made even more interesting by the author’s own involvement in transition initiatives (like Transition Town Brixton) and the urban agriculture movement.”
    —Luigi Russi, The Commons Sense"

    The fundamental doctrine of these people is that capitalism is unsustainable, and this sort of stuff is all grist to the mill, whether it makes sense or not. Trying to co-opt the laws of thermodynamics to their cause is certainly audacious and would be powerful if it were taken seriously - but it won't be because you cannot make such a link. This, I now strongly suspect, is Fute's religion.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
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  22. Ophiolite Valued Senior Member

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    Just a heads up: driving to work this morning I heard an interview on the BBC with a gentleman from Chatham House, the think tank, relating to a report on the oil and gas industry in which he describes the future of the giants such as ExxonMobil, BP, Total, etc as nasty, brutish and short. I can well imagine Futilitist jumping all over this as evidence for his view. However, the guy's thesis is that the present business model of these companies is flawed. In his own words "rather like Doctor Who they will just change their appearance and continue in a different form".
     
  23. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    This sounds interesting, but I can't find it on the BBC website. Was this R4's "Today", by any chance, and if so at what time? (If it is, I can replay the interview on iPlayer).

    I'd be interested to hear what he thinks is wrong with the "business model" and how he thinks it will evolve. I have my pension to think of!

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