Discussion in 'Politics' started by Xelor, Sep 7, 2017.
more of a counterpoint actually
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Bullshit isn't "counterpoint" either.
So? Another big Caribbean Sea hurricane. The warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf are famous for breeding big storms - [quote ="Wiki"] The hurricane's origins can be traced to the central Caribbean Sea [/quote]
If you're trying to make some kind of silly argument against the existence and consequences of AGW and its connections to Republican politics (including the debt ceiling) it's no wonder you are not making it clear - it would be embarrassing.
If you aren't, what's with the random hurricane links?
They have also spoken admiringly of the US government and governance in place in 1846 - without being too specific, naturally.
I imagine the reconstruction of Florida and Houston will mean a building boom and more jobs. So factoring out the uninsured who will increase the number of homeless families, the loss of workers who have nowhere to live and/or nowhere to work, this is good for the economy.
The factory workers will return or migrate to the rebuilt places, so things should get better when the towns and cities are again productive. As long as the human misery factor isn't a consideration, the US needs more hurricanes . . .?
Unless of course too many hurricanes cause more damage than can be coped with and one or two cities remain unproductive and the population shrinks. Or someone makes a rational decision about not rebuilding in high-risk areas (like, 3 feet above the beach in the Florida Keys), and not infringing the rights of any American to live where the hell they please, and insurance companies insuring whoever the hell they please.
The 1926 Miami hurricane, (costliest in us history) commonly called the "Great Miami" hurricane, was a large and intense tropical cyclone that devastated the Greater Miami area and caused extensive damage in the Bahamas and the U.S. Gulf Coast in September 1926. The toll for the storm was US$105 million (equivalent to $7.2 billion in 2016).As a result of the destruction in Florida, the hurricane represented an early start to the Great Depression in the aftermath of the state's 1920s land boom.
The tropical cyclone is believed to have formed in the central Atlantic Ocean on September 11.[nb 1] Steadily strengthening as it tracked west-northwestward, the tropical storm reached hurricane intensity the next day. As a result of scattered observations at open sea, however, no ship encountered the storm until September 15, by which time the cyclone had reached major hurricane intensity north of the Virgin Islands. Strengthening continued up until the following day, when the storm reached peak intensity with a strength equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. This intensity was maintained as the storm tracked across the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamasto landfall near Miami on September 18.
The cyclone caused immense destruction throughout the islands and across southern Florida. The storm destroyed hundreds of structures in its path over the islands, leaving thousands of residents homeless. At least 17 deaths occurred on the islands, though many others—some related only indirectly to the storm—were reported in the aftermath. Upon striking South Florida, the cyclone generated hurricane-force winds over a broad swath of the region, causing widespread and severe structural damage from both wind and water. Most of the deaths occurred near Lake Okeechobee, when a large storm surge breached muck dikes and drowned hundreds of people.
and just think... that hurricane occurred when ocean temps were relatively normal or average...now that the oceans are considerably hotter what happens do y9u think...
Conventional wisdom has it that warmer waters lead to stronger storms , though it may well be that the scale of temperature gradients could become a better determinant.
The question obtains: where will they track?
None of which removes the aforementioned storms from history.
well that is an easy one to agree with simply because evaporation rates increase leading to more mass ( water) suspended in the atmosphere. "What goes up must...."
and none of which will remove Irma as a record breaking storm from history either.... you do understand what the term record breaking implies don't you?
Or do you dispute the record breaking (unprecedented) nature of Irma?
The problem is sample size.
HURDAT ain't really very old. and didn't really study the broader pacific until quite recently.
Record breaking= nonsense.(beat 27000 dead)
more pre-hurdat data:
NameDates activeAreas affectedDeathsRefs
Nicaragua ... 1605 .... 1,300
Straits of Florida ... 1622 ... 1,090
Cuba and Florida ... 1644 ... 1,500
Caribbean ... 1666 ... 2,000
Barbados ... 1694 ... 1,000+
Bahamas ... 1715 ... 1,000 – 2,500
Martinique ...1767 ... 1,600
Havana ... 1768 ... 43 – 1,000
NewfoundlandAugust 29 – September 9, 1775 ... North Carolina, Virginia, Newfoundland ...4,000 – 4,163
Pointe-à-PitreBay 1776 ... 6,000+
San CalixtoOctober 9–20, 1780 Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bermuda ... 27,501+
Gulf of Mexico ... 1780 ... 2,000
Jamaica and Cuba ... 1780 ... 42 – 1,090
Florida ... 1781 ... 2,000+
Central Atlantic ... 1782 ... 3,000+
"Cuba" Hurricane ... 1791 ... 30 – 3,000
Martinique ... 1813 ... 3,000+
Caribbean ... 1824 ... 372 – 1,300+
yes... uhm... well... modern governmental policy , cyclone proof construction, better storm shelter use etc all have major impacts in keeping the number of fatalities down....
The biggest fact, I believe, regarding deaths and post storm disease, is getting to the effected areas quickly after the storm has passed with emergency aids and support structures.
If you wish to discuss effectiveness in reducing causalities due to better forecasting, predictions, and procedures then by all means go for it...
And yet, fema turned down free medical care from Cuba after Katrina, and Now an offer of help from Mexico after Harvey.
Maybe it ain't about the people as much as it is about the politics and profits?
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Maybe watch something besides infowars? Mexico offered aid after Harvey, and Texas accepted it. However, Mexico was struck with a powerful earthquake and withdrew it's offer, having to take care of it's own citizens.
Perhaps being a tad less cynical might help also...
Trying to measure hurricane size or intensity by death toll is stupid. There are probably heavy rain events that have killed more people somewhere than any hurricane - one of those Yellow River floods, say.
At least your latest irrelevance is actually an Atlantic ocean hurricane - much weaker than Irma, of course, but that was in the early years of AGW.
Yep. But the dice will still be loaded - the possible gradient steeper, the peak events when the stars align more severe.
Meanwhile, you have posted yet another example of the consequences of incapable governance , the kind the current Republicans are trying to restore in the US by using debt ceiling leverage.
"Fema" didn't do that. Republican federal administration did that. Specifically and explicitly and overtly Republican Party federal administration.
It's about the Republican Party as taken over by fascism, starting with Nixon in 1968 and culminating just after Reagan with Gingrich bringing in the Congress.
Fascists do not make the trains run on time. Never have, never will. The Republican use of the debt ceiling leverage will damage the government of the United States, including natural calamity response.
Yep. We can ignore climate change as much as possible, and postpone/cancel/vilify carbon emission reduction strategies - but the bill will still come due in the form of ever-increasing losses from warm-water boosted weather events.
so the latter your participating in some mental masturbation because you don't have a point
As mentioned, the sample size is not sufficient to proclaim causality of tropical cyclones and hurricanes.
We should address and determine the relevant causality of the AMO, as well as the rainfall vs drought in the Sahel in determining causality of tropical cyclones, their intensity, and tracks.
The above mentioned storms will be seen to have pattern.
Co-relating these patterns to known AMOs and weather patterns in the Sahel and Caribbean may get us closer to an answer.
Proclaiming an answer on insufficient evidence will not.
Congress playing politics with the budget seems designed to make the government dysfunctional.
Perhaps there is another goal embedded in their "bickering"?
On a personal note: I would rather that they not increase the debt ceiling, and do the hard work of keeping spending within the government's income.
The Republican Congress. Don't "bothsides" this crap - there is a perfectly obvious and well defined entity here, not some vague "them".
Their use of the debt ceiling to further their agenda is now a decades-old pattern.
Bullshit. There is a well established and nailed down chain of "causality" behind the greater intensity and more severe manifestations of violent storms, higher rainfall totals, longer droughts, greater wildfire extents and severities, and other alterations of weather based phenomena - hurricanes included.
The burden of proof is on those who claim otherwise.
And the use of the debt ceiling to "argue" the case is not any manner of "proof".
So restoring the pre-Reagan era tax policies and revoking the Reagan era deregulations - the primary cause of spending beyond the government's income - is a priority for you.
Separate names with a comma.