Quite an Interesting recent couple of papers.... https://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.03096v1.pdf On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene: Abstract: An oscillation with a period of about 2100-2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (14C and 10Be) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. This oscillation is typically associated with solar variations, but its primary physical origin remains uncertain. Herein we show strong evidences for an astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to a repeating pattern in the periodic revolution of the planets around the Sun: the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune - which has a period of about p = 2318 yr. Inspired by the Milanković’s theory of an astronomical origin of the glacial cycles, we test whether the Hallstatt cycle could derive from the rhythmic variation of the circularity of the solar system disk assuming that this dynamics could eventually modulate the solar wind and, consequently, the incoming cosmic ray flux and/or the interplanetary/cosmic dust concentration around the Earth-Moon system. The orbit of the planetary mass center (PMC) relative to the Sun is used as a proxy. We analyzed how the instantaneous eccentricity vector of this virtual orbit varies from 13,000 B. C. to 17,000 A. D.. We found that it undergoes kind of pulsations as it clearly presents rhythmic contraction and expansion patterns with a 2318 yr period together with a number of already known faster oscillations associated to the planetary orbital stable resonances. There exists a quasi π/2 phase shift between the 2100-2500 yr oscillation found in the 14C record and that of the calculated eccentricity function. Namely, at the Hallstatt-cycle time scale, a larger production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more elliptical shapes (e ≈ 0.598) to more circular ones (e ≈ 0.590), that is while the orbital system is slowly imploding or bursting inward; a smaller production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more circular shapes (e ≈ 0.590) to a more elliptical ones (e ≈ 0.598), that is while the orbital system is slowly exploding or bursting outward. Since at this timescale the PMC eccentricity variation is relatively small (e = 0.594±0.004), the physical origin of the astronomical 2318 yr cycle is better identified and distinguished from faster orbital oscillations by the times it takes the PMC to make pericycles and apocycles around the Sun and the times it takes to move from minimum to maximum distance from the Sun within those arcs. These particular proxies reveal a macroscopic 2318 yr period oscillation, together with other three stable orbital resonances among the outer planets with periods of 159, 171 and 185 yr. This 2318 yr oscillation is found to be spectrally coherent with the ∆14C Holocene record with a statistical confidence above 95%, as determined by spectral analysis and cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis. At the Hallstatt time scale, maxima of the radionucleotide production occurred when, within each pericycle-apocycle orbital arc, the time required by the PMC to move from the minimum to the maximum distance from the Sun varies from about 8 to 16 years while the time required by the same to move from the maximum to the minimum distance from the Sun varies from about 7 to 14 years, and vice versa. Thus, we found that a fast expansion of the Sun-PMC orbit followed by a slow contraction appears to prevent cosmic rays to enter within the system inner region while a slow expansion followed by a fast contraction favors it. Similarly, the same dynamics could modulate the amount of interplanetary/cosmic dust falling on Earth. Indeed, many other stable orbital resonance frequencies (e.g. at periods of 20 yr, 45 yr, 60 yr, 85 yr, 159-171-185 yr, etc.) are found in radionucleotide, solar, aurora and climate records, as determined in the scientific literature. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently received a renewed attention. In our particular case, the rhythmic contraction and expansion of the solar system driven by a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets appear to work as a gravitational/electromagnetic pump that increases and decreases the cosmic ray and dust densities inside the inner region of the solar system, which then modulate both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.02483.pdf Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima: ABSTRACT Aims. Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we aim at improving the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. Methods. We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth’s atmosphere, and available geomagnetic field reconstructions, including a new reconstruction relying on an updated archeo- and paleointensity database. The obtained series were analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method to study the millennial-scale trends. Results. A new reconstruction of the geomagnetic dipole field moment, referred to as GMAG.9k, is built for the last nine millennia. New reconstructions of solar activity covering the last nine millennia, quantified in terms of sunspot numbers, are presented and analyzed. A conservative list of grand minima and maxima is also provided. Conclusions. The primary components of the reconstructed solar activity, as determined using the SSA method, are different for the series that are based on 14C and 10Be. This shows that these primary components can only be ascribed to long-term changes in the terrestrial system and not to the Sun. These components have therefore been removed from the reconstructed series. In contrast, the secondary SSA components of the reconstructed solar activity are found to be dominated by a common ≈ 2400-year quasi-periodicity, the so-called Hallstatt cycle, in both the 14C and 10Be based series. This Hallstatt cycle thus appears to be related to solar activity. Finally, we show that the grand minima and maxima occurred intermittently over the studied period, with clustering near highs and lows of the Hallstatt cycle, respectively
