As I said before, it is escalating anyway. Appeasement hasn't worked. If Russia can supply weapons to its troops in Ukraine, then everyone else should be able to do so as well. Russia always beats on its chest and attempts to intimidate. But it shouldn't work. Russia is a very weakened state. Russia issued the same claims before economic sanctions were imposed, and he escalated his invasion anyway. No matter what the West does Putin will escalate until he has what he wants. Merkel is only fooling herself if she thinks Putin won't escalate his invasion if only the West doesn't supply weaponry. Appeasement hasn't kept Putin from escalating thus far. Appeasement didn't work for Chamberlain and it won't work for Merkel either. Some people think it makes a difference wither Putin publicly admits his vacationing troops are not vacationing in Ukraine but fighting Ukrainian troops. Frankly, it is immaterial. The fact is Putin's troops have invaded Ukraine. I don't know how much more "full scale" you can get. To pretend, Putin hasn't already mounted a full scale invasion of Ukraine is sheer fantasy and self delusion. If Russian troops take over the entire country, Russia would be consuming a poisoned apple. Sure they can take over the country. But in doing so they will be committing themselves to another prolonged asymmetrical war. They already have one such battle another will not help them. And meanwhile, their economy is in shambles and on the brink of oblivion. The costs of maintaining a presence in and controlling Ukraine would be a monumental drain on an already dying Russian economy and depleted foreign cash reserves. Putin has got his nuts in a wringer. He is just too dumb to realize it. Putin is deluding himself if he thinks he can afford to take on Ukraine and expand his international military presence as he has publicly committed himself to do. He is stretching himself a little too much, too fast. Perhaps he should have studied history a bit more, among other things.
and official decleration of war treatening on of Europes oil arteries rising the price of oil and forcing... well their not really NATO alltough for some reason people assume they have the same rights. I never understood that train of toughts. but things could most definitly get worse.
An Official declaration of war...by whom and on whom? The US and NATO allies are not going to declare war over Ukraine. They have said so, President Obama has said so. Ukrainian leaders know that and Putin knows that. And a state of war currently exists between Russian and Ukraine. Wither we call it a war or not is largely irrelevant. It is a war. Russia has invaded and annexed yet another neighboring state. If you don’t think Russia and Ukraine are at war, go to Crimea or Donetsk and talk to the people who live there. No one is treating Ukraine as if it were a NATO member. If Ukraine were a NATO member state, NATO forces would have been engaged in Ukrainian fighting within hours and days of Russia’s invasion and Russia and Putin would be “has-beens”. So where you get this notion that Ukraine is being treated as a NATO nation is beyond me. It just isn’t even remotely true. As for Russian oil, that threat only goes so far and is rapidly losing whatever potency it may have once had. Russian oil and natural gas exports fund most of the Russian government. Sure Putin could cut off European oil and natural gas supplies but he can only do that once. But Europe has alternatives and is even now reducing its dependency on Russian oil. Putin doesn’t have options. He either sells his oil and natural gas to Europe or he doesn’t. And if he doesn’t sell his oil, he further soils his nest. He effectively defunds the Russian government. Yeah, things could get much worse for Mother Putin, Mother Russia and Ukraine, but not so much for Europe and NATO. As a result of Putin’s invasions, NATO resources are being beefed up. Ironically, by invading and annexing neighboring states, Putin has strengthened what he claims to fear most…NATO…and he has brought NATO forces closer to his borders and brought the Russian economy to its knees in the process.
Putin could declare war upon Ukraine, he could cause trouble in koningsberg, and Georgia without to much difficulty. the thing abouth Crimea is tough you don't often here them complaining much this is odd because of inflation is 42.5% in 2014 ? their 2 biggest incomes are agriculture and tourisme, tourisme took a 66% nosedive and as far as I know the canal providing 85% of crimean waters in still closed off. Putin might actually need this conflict otherwise Crimeans would be more opset then scared. I believe it's mostly to do with Crimeans: remain happy Russians or you will end up like Donetsk. It's still a very inportant reason. Putins grip on Crimea isn't very strong (neither is Ukrains tough). When you loose a lot of your savings (the ruble drop) and you probably loose your income (agriculture and tourisme) and you do not come out on the street to protest it's because your scared
I don't know what that would do for him. A declaration of war would just be a public announcement of what he has already done. Putin has already caused trouble in Georgia. Putin pulled the same stunt in Georgia as he is now doing in Ukraine. But the world stood by and let Putin have his way with Georgia. I doubt Putin could pull off another Ukraine or Georgia in Germany. If he even attempts to do so, NATO would soon be occupying the smoldering remains of Moscow and Putin would be found quivering in some hole in the ground a la Saddam. Attacking a NATO member wouldn't go over very well. Yes Russian annexation hasn't turned out well for Crimean residents. It is kind of difficult to protest or for Ukraine to exert control when Putin's army invaded in the cover of darkness and his goons are ruling the nest. In Crimea you are either happy or dead. Putin does need an enemy and a conflict and an ample supply of Vodka to keep Russians from contemplating their own state of affairs. You are absolutely correct.
The west clearly has to do something abouth the ukranian situation and to be honnest theirs no golden respons. Sanctions are yust to do something. The war and occupation are obviously ukrains biggest problem at the moment but the misinformation and corruption are the biggest hurdles for the west to help Ukraine. Nobody is really certain what's happenening and who's dying in wich numbers. You can't send food because it ends up on the black market, you can't send weapons because it ends up on the black market, you can't send money because it will never reach it goal. What could help in offering logistical help. The pro russians are trying to surround a city (named Debaltseve) because of this they need many troops somewhere north of Donetsk (the biggest rebel city with the destroyed airport). This means the south near Mariupol (very south of Ukraine) is relativly abandoned because of this the azov battalion have conquered relative large pieces of land (also azov whilst pro Ukraine isn't without problems). So giving logistic help could help Ukraine to attack from multiple fronts more easly. That said their should also be some sort of media channel for countries with large russian populations. A sort of daily show with a critical (but yust) look on what's going on in Russia, the EU and their home country. I believe anyone who sees how russian vasal states like transnistra, south ossetia and abkhazia fare couldn't possibly want this. I still believe Putin isn't really interested in the east of Ukraine it's all a front for him to act tough and solidate his power in Crimea. BTW a somewhat intersting link
I still believe Putin needs the conflict in the east to consildate his power in Crimea If the west would send more weapons to Ukraine (or if Ukraine gains to much ground), Russia would intervene and send a larger force. Increasing the casualties. This would go on as a proxi war like Vietnam(for the US) or the first afgan war (for the russians). This would go on until one doesn't want the carry the economic and military brunt). If the goal is to cause economic harm sanctionscould achieve the same economic harm without much of the bloodshed. And that's the argument against sending weapons.
And that assertion is based on? I.e. have their average salaries increased or decreased? Has the unemployment level fallen or increased. What about food cost? etc. Is health care now more expense or less, etc. Lets have some facts, not just your opnion.
Well that is an argument. Putin certainly feels Crimea is important to him as he has granted special privileges to Crimeans which are causing some Russians to become a bit putt-off with their Crimean brothers and sisters. http://news.yahoo.com/russia-battle...ates-crimea-euphoria-064348591--business.html Unfortunately, Ukraine is becoming a proxy war for Russia but so much for the West. For the West, Ukraine is all about weakening a dictator who is a threat to world peace. Putin's aggression brings back images of Hitler for those of us who live in the West. Putin is doing the exact same things Hitler did prior to WWII and using the same rationale and excuses. And that is most disturbing. It would be less disturbing if this hadn't become a pattern of behavior. When Putin invaded Georgia, the West protested, but did little else. Now we are witnessing the same kind of Russia aggression in Ukraine. It cannot be tolerated. It cannot be allowed to stand. It is better to fight a weaker Putin than a stronger Putin because it may come to open warfare between the West and Putin. And unfortunately, the West doesn't have much say in the matter. Putin is the absolute Russian leader. The West cannot do much about that. But at some point the West must either protect itself or allow Putin to be emperor of the world. And that just isn't acceptable option for the West. The one thing we should have learned from WWII is that there is no appeasing nationalistic (i.e. fascist) dictators.
Ask Orcot he made it. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! But I will give you a little help. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...2bcf82-69b3-11e4-bafd-6598192a448d_story.html http://www.npr.org/2014/07/10/330496164/life-after-annexation-an-uneasy-return-to-crimea And Crimea is now feeling the effects of sanctions just as most Russians (Putin excepted) are feeling the effects of Western sanctions (e.g. double digit inflation).
While agreeing that Putin is a terrible dictator: "emperor of the world"? Hyperbole much, joe? Yes, we have to stop them from becoming the emperor of the world. That's something we in the West have definitely learned, that no one should be the emperor of the world.
I.e. have their average salaries increased or decreased? It is often said (wrongly) that the salaries (and pensions have doubled). let's start with pensions Ukraine pensions system is notoriously low (link) roughly 68.7$ a month in real money but you have to see that in contect Ukraine spends 17.2% of it's GDP to pensions it also constitures of 70% of a average wage the minimum pension in Russia is 2963 rubles (theis like 3 categories for the minimum (I assume single,couple and state employed) the problem here is that I can not say much that was last year and both currencies are in free fall today making a current comparison meaningless. So I'm going under the assumtion that 1$ was abouth 30 rubble gibing you a minimum wage of 98.76$ (I'm not really happy with that number correct me if you have a better source). So pensions increased by roughly 40%. Now abouth the salaries, that's simply not true what has increased are the wages of state employed people link Now Crimeas is mostly famous for 1 agriculture and 2 recreation (tourism). So whilst some do indeed get some extra money this group is negligible in % source 17.3% are working in agriculture 27.3% are employed in small busnisses 8370+18800 have a medical profesion tourism is unknown but estimates are 28% This acounts for 73% of the Crimeas workforce Now unemploment Crimeas unemployment rate officialy dropped 20% according to the russian goverment and it increased 400% according to other sources? (see image for example) Now this brings us to some interesting conclusions 1 everybody is probably lying both Ukraine and Russia no exact figures can be trusted What's the economy of of Crimea: Agriculture and tourisme. How are they doing: Agriculture irrigation water was cut out by 85% tourisme: took a nosedive most guesses are it dropped 66% What about food cost? etc. ITAR TASS that's EEEEEEEEEEEEExtremly pro Russian (more so than RT) states food prices rose with 50% and that's a number you keep hearing Is health care now more expense or less hard to say, so many more people moving in and out theirs no shortage of medicine Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
this you might also find this interesting hope you can read russian or know how to work google translate: http://komtv.org/ceny-2/ on food prices http://komtv.org/30679-ceny-v-krymu-3/
The fighting continues. So much for the cease fire. The big question is what happens now? Will the West impose new sanctions? http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/15/us-ukraine-crisis-osce-idUSKBN0LJ0LO20150215
Secretary Kerry is threatening more sanctions. And frankly, I don't see a realistic scenario in which further sanctions are not imposed on Mother Russia. Putin will continue until he can't. And he has a long way to go before he can't. He has men, and he has guns, and that is all he needs to continue fighting in Ukraine. Unless the West increases the stakes and increases the Russian casualties by arming Ukraine, as well as increasing the economic costs, Putin will continue to invade and annex neighboring states. Putin isn't interested in an off ramp. This is all about Putin's power and keeping Putin out of a jail cell. Putin can ill afford a successful democracy on his border. It could cause Russians to have second thoughts about Putin, and he cannot have that. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/w...ssia-will-be-discussed-over-ukraine.html?_r=0 Russia suffered another debt downgrade Friday. Russian debt is junk. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/21/russias-debt-downgraded-junk-moodys
Well, so much for the much vaunted cease fire. The fighting continues unabated. Russia has not complied. Its vacationing troops are still vacationing in Ukraine with their military equipment. So it should be just a matter of time before new sanctions are levied on Mother Russia. I say it is long past time to deny Russian access to the international payments system (SWIFT). http://www.investopedia.com/article...wift-could-hit-russia-where-it-hurts-most.asp
The Russian economics minister announced today he expects the sanctions to remain in place for 2 years. That's very interesting. What is so magical about the number 2? It looks to me like Western sanctions will remain in place indefinitely or until Putin either changes his mind - not a likely event in my view - or until Putin dies or is forced out of power and that could be decades from now. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/16/uk-russia-crisis-economy-sanctions-idUKKBN0MC17420150316
That is about how long Russia's reserves will last without drastic damage to the economy. For example, how long Russia can help people with mortgage payments due in western currencies so they can stay in their homes, etc.
