Putin took a sharpie and had it written in three languages on his shiny pink little head. That's all the evidence you need.
Based Putin's recent actions, it appears sanctions are beginning to bite. As inflation ravages the country Putin has begun looking for scapegoats (e.g. the recently opened price fixing investigations). I don't think Putin would be looking for scapegoats if all was well. But I wouldn't look for Putin to change course. Putin appears as determined as ever to continue his aggression in Ukraine. He continues to rattle is sabers, flying his WWII aircraft into European airspace and on occasion violating territorial waters of some European nations like Portugal and Sweden and reminding the world he is a nuclear power. And still, no one is paying him the attention and respect he so desperately craves. Putin doesn't impress me as a reasonable character, so I expect he will continue to do what he has been doing and perhaps ratchet thing up a bit in another failed bit to get attention...nothing like digging a bigger hole for one’s self. So there are two ways to play this state of affairs. If one doesn't mind unlimited risk, one could short the Moscow Exchange by shorting a Russian ETF. Given the current state of affairs, I think the unlimited risk inherent in shorts is not a probable event. The second way to play Putin is to purchase “puts” on those ETFs. The Russian stock market is down 28% on the year and 13% just within the last 3 months while US markets are up 12% for the year. As time progresses, I expect the Russian economic decline to continue at an accelerated rate. There is certainly nothing I can see in the near term or long term that would cause a change in course. So next year, I think we could see the Russian Stock Exchange contract another 30% or more and probably more. So I think the way to play this is to either short the Russian Stock Exchange by shorting Russian ETFs or buying “puts” on Russian ETFs. As with all “shorts”, shorts bear unlimited risk whereas those who purchase “options”, risk is limited to the option purchase price. But I am thinking this is as close as it gets to a sure bet while keeping in mind that there is no such thing as a sure bet. In the name of full disclosure, I bought "puts" on Russian ETFs 3 months ago and I am up 62% on that investment. Last Friday I purchased more, "puts" to replace "puts" expiring this month. I have another batch of "puts" expiring next month, I will be purchasing more "puts" in the coming days and weeks to replace expiring "puts" and increase my holdings. I think Putin has set a clear course for Russia. It is an unfortunate path for Russia. But the course is nonetheless a clear one and one he will not change. I expect more saber rattling, perhaps even louder saber rattling, more scapegoating of Americans, Europeans, oil companies, etc. and more nationalization of private enterprises. None of that is good for Russia's economy.
Russia's central bank moves to defend the Ruble yet again. The Russian central bank has reduced its economic growth forecast for next year to zero and I think that might be too optimistic. Like all of Putin's servants the Russian central bank tends to be overly optimistic when it comes to Putin and Putin's policies and for good reason. Folks who don't agree with or become thorns for Putin have a habit of winding up dead or destitute and a resident of your friendly neighborhood gulag. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the ruble’s slide has gone too far and pledged to limit local-currency funding to ward off speculators. Close Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the ruble’s slide has gone too far and... Read More Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the ruble’s slide has gone too far and pledged to limit local-currency funding to ward off speculators. Russia’s financial guardians made their broadest acknowledgment yet that sanctions are sinking the economy, as the central bank moved to protect the ruble after the currency’s worst week in more than a decade. The Bank of Russia said in Moscow today that gross domestic product will probably stagnate in 2015, highlighting the damage wrought by a slump in oil prices and international measures linked to the conflict in Ukraine. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the ruble’s slide has gone too far and pledged to limit local-currency funding to ward off speculators. It means the central bank “is facing the true reality,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, an economist at Danske Bank A/S in Helsinki. “It looks like wishful thinking is over for now.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...2015-economic-forecast-to-show-no-growth.html
Putin’s is indeed intent on repeating the mistakes of the former Soviet Union, nothing like repeating the mistakes of the past. Putin has chosen to significantly escalate military spending. Putin is now sending Russian troops way beyond their borders and into territories where he cannot support those forces and cannot afford to support them. At a time when Russian state revenues are down and the economy is on the cusp of recession and inflation is running rampant, Putin wants to and is putting his diminished military back on a Soviet era cold war footing. It really doesn’t make sense, except to a man with the ego of a Roman emperor and Stalin’s paranoia. The Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its oversized military spending while attempting to compete militarily with the West. Russia and in particular, Putin is an ant trying to act like an elephant. Anyone with a sense of math understands that a 2 trillion dollar and shrinking economy cannot compete with the combined economies of the Western world. Even if, Russia were to spend every ruble on military spending, it would still not have enough money, enough men and enough resources to compete with Western nations. It’s just simple math, 50 trillion dollars is much larger than 2 trillion dollars. A population of 140 million cannot hope to compete with a collation of countries with a population of nearly a billion people. And I haven’t even mentioned the technological advantages which the rest of the world holds over Russia. So I think all this portends ill for Mother Russia. It’s already stretched and antiquated military forces will increasingly degrade with time and overuse. And Russia’s economy will continue to slide into oblivion. Inflation will continue. Capital flight will continue at an accelerated rate. Russia’s single asset, its oil and natural gas industry will fall into disrepair as it no longer has access to critical technologies. It’s sad.
Western nations are threatening to tighten Russian sanctions in view of Putin's increasing aggression in Ukraine. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/20...eader-meets-russian-senators-amid-unrest.html The Russian central bank is a busy place these days. Among other things, they have been buying gold to prop up domestic gold producers as gold buyers have dried up.
yea man sure the same negative propositions and demographical collapse and Russia breaking down was prophesized in 1990's. none of it came true. Russia is a strong resilient and most importantly adaptable country, if Merkel is kissing Obama's a** and disregarding what is good for her nation, well that is her choice. Those countries who are going against the sanctions on Russia are our true friends and in future we will form long lasting partnerships with them. As for USA it can go rot in hell.
Actually, the projections are were not wrong and are not wrong. You and Putin are living in A fantasy land. You can probably count Putin's friends on one hand and still have unused fingers.
Yea the projections of Russia breaking up and its population going lower than 100 million were all wrong. And another wrong, "United Russia" party has the majority control in the country and Putin as its leader with Medvedev, there is a reason why Russia is so strong, we are united. While Republicans and Democrats waste money on elections when everyone knows they do exactly the same thing, the US multi trillion dollar debt is ever increasing, the immigrants will soon run over the country alltogether, and the recession isnt going away. http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/01/07/why-russias-economy-isnt-going-to-collapse/
your article is over a year old The reason why the Russian economy will not collapse: (according to the artiucle) 1 The price of Brent crude has stayed remarkably robust 2. Russia still has very large foreign reserves, some of the largest in the entire world 3. The Russian government still runs a budget surplus, and its spending as a percentage of GDP is not very high 4. Russian unemployment is at or near a post-Soviet record low 1.it has not, it dropt even russian says the price won't rebound in 2015 2.Still holding 3.It hasn't (see link) the deficit isn't big but apart from 2012 Russia hasn't had a surplus since 2009 the 2015 budget is calculated at a oim price of a 100$ that alone will probaly produce a 2% deficit in 2015 (then theirs Crimea it already cost Russia 4.5 billion but that's yust transport and wages not investments it will probably costs 22 billion in 2015 in investments (1% of the Russian economy... Economy is a strange thing but less income and more cost are generally not that good (still it's deficit is smaller then that of let's say the united states) 4. low unemployment is good for the country is meeds theirs a labor shortage so the wages go up it's good for the russian people (if they can sell their products) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-budget
Well as previously noted, the article you referenced was two years old. Further, the population projection was that the Russian population would be down to 100 million in 2050 and the article you referenced was written at a time when oil was selling for over $100/barrel and more than a year before Putin invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed on Russia by Western countries. You are desperate and grasping for straws. Russians are united because dissidents are stripped of possessions and thrown into gulags, just like in the good old days of Soviet Communism. And yes, the US does have a multitrillion dollar national debt. But it also has a multi-trillion dollar economy which is much larger than its debt, and it has the world reserve currency, and we don't throw dissidents in jail and confiscate their wealth. And we are a nation of immigrants, my ancestors immigrated from Sweden more than a century ago. Immigrants make our nation stronger, not weaker. Your xenophobia is showing. The fact is the world and in particular the Russian world has changed dramatically and not for the best since the article you wrote was written and even when it was written it was speculative. Russia needs oil about $100/barrel in order to support its economy and its government. Yesterday, Brent Oil closed at $80/barrel and given Arab oil producers are more intent on protecting market share and given the glut of oil supply brought about by recent changes in technology, oil prices are not likely to go back to $100/barrel where Russia needs them to be. Throw in the sanctions, and life isn't good if you are Russian. What Putin is doing is exactly what the Soviet Union did, he is an turtle trying to compete with a racing hound. He is outmatched. Russia's population is 140 million against a Western population of a billion. Russia is a one horse 2 trillion dollar oil dependent economy against a combined 59 trillion dollar diversified economy. And then there is the technology gap. Putin will only succeed in either causing a nuclear war or decimating the Russian economy. Neither option bodes well for Mother Russia. Putin keeps fantasizing China is going to bail him out. He is deluding himself as Merkel has previously stated. China isn't going to do anything to jeopardize its economy - especially to a guy who flirts with the first lady of China. China isn't going to pay Russia the $100/barrel it needs when it can get it for $80/barrel. If China buys oil and natural gas from Russia you can be certain it will be a lower that market prices. And market prices are not going up any time soon.
Isn't that yust stupid? They also said Obama looked like a rapper with his chewing gum. Also how did you get at that 59 trillion number? The worlds economy is roughly 73 trillion china's part is 9 CIS (Russia+) is 3, south east asia and india is 2 each your still left with a pretty big nummber but not 59 trillion more like 34 for the EU and the US, 42 if you include japan canada and australia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
You wiki page was deleted and your numbers appear to be off. Additionally, I never said the collective GDP Putin is competing against was 59 trillion. I said 50 trillion and those numbers come from The World Bank. But the differences are so vast, a few trillion here or there really isn't consequential.
for some reason the last ")" doesn't get recognised is part of the URL [URL='http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...ia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal[/U][/URL] )[/URL] I will try it with brackets. The numbers I used are those of the IMF (international monetary Fund) for 2013. I'm guessing as the (russian) economy worsens Putins popularity will drop but a economic Russia that's strugling isn't good for anybody either. In a way this still could be a good thing Putin's shenanigans make it more likely that the EU will get a unified energy policy (or at least it's discussed more) and somewhat of a unified army the 2% on defense for each country is a nice idea but it's equal to 30% of the Russian GDP I believe more could be acomplished with a better coorperation strategy we can see that in dutch jets intercepting planes in the baltic and a turkish escort that was allowed to escort over Greece. Similar I think the average Rus doesn't really care abouth Ukraine those near the border want to fuck each other and live on the ukranian side (russian borders has abouth 95% pure russians whilst the ukranian donbass has 50% russians) those inland don't really care and those in the russian steel industry resent the subsidies the donbass region gets. Blaming the issues on Russia get's them defensive whilst blaming them on Putin makes that less so also it gives them a clear way out.
Russian GDP is 2 trillion dollars, not 3 trillion dollars, and shrinking. And yes a nuclear power that is suffering like Russia isn't good for anyone. But it is not alone, one could easily lump Pakistan with its 237 billion dollar economy in that category too, though Pakistan is not invading and annexing its neighbors. The question is what can the West do about it? Doing nothing only invites a worse conflict later. A military confrontation risks a brief nuclear war which would devastate Mother Russia and should be an option of last resort. Or we can do what has been done which will degrade Russia over time like a cancer slowly eating away at its host. Putin sounds as recalcitrant as ever at the G20 meeting. And British Prime Minister Cameron is talking about increasing the sanctions. I don't see how further sanctions can be avoided given Putin's callous disregard for international law. Putin like those he emulates only respects strength. Any reticence, any accommodation from the West will be viewed by Putin as an encouragement and as a weakness. The West has drawn a line in the sand and it must stand firm, else risk an increase in Putin's aggression. "Vladimir Putin has admitted for the first time that he is prepared for his country to face a “catastrophic” slump in oil prices, as David Cameron said Europe would have no choice but to step up sanctions if the Russian president did not abide by previous agreements to respect Ukraine’s independence. Putin was speaking before a bilateral meeting with Cameron on the margins of the G20 summit in Brisbane. The meeting is likely to be a bruising affair, especially after the British prime minister likened Russia to Nazi Germany, saying Europe had learned lessons from history about the way that a big country could bully others. Putin said Russia’s economy had the reserves to withstand a collapse in oil revenues, but added: “We are considering all the scenarios including the so-called catastrophic fall of prices for energy resources which is entirely possible and we admit it.” He said he regarded sanctions as pointless, illegal and likely to harm not just Russian but world trade. “This contradicts international law because sanctions can only be imposed within the framework of the United Nations and its security council.” He claimed that as many as 300,000 German jobs could be at risk if there were no contracts with Russia. Putin is also due to see Angela Merkel at the summit. The Russian economy is forecast by its central bank to run zero growth next year, and the value of the rouble has fallen. Russia gets half its total budget revenue from oil and natural gas taxes. British government sources are increasingly confident that sanctions limiting the ability of Russian banks to raise capital are taking their toll. Britain has been urging the Russians to stand by a ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in September and to stop sending Russian material and arms across the border to rebel-held regions of Ukraine. Cameron told reporters: “It’s possible to stand by the Minsk agreement. It’s not a perfect agreement from anyone’s point of view, but it has some key parts to it, about Russian troops and about borders and about respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty. I think there’s a very clear choice for Russia of which path it takes. If it takes the Minsk path we could progressively see normalisation of relations between Russia and Ukraine, you could see Ukraine’s sovereignty and elections respected, you could see the removal of sanctions if that were to happen. “But the other path of not respecting the Minsk agreement, continuing to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty, continuing to see Russian troops in Ukraine and Russian tanks and the rest of it – I don’t think Europe would have a choice but to maintain the sanctions we have, to start looking at further measures that could be taken if Russia takes further steps and to putting relationships between European countries and Russia on a very different basis. Earlier, Cameron said: “We have to be clear what we are dealing with here is a large state bullying a smaller state. We have seen the consequences of that in the past and we should learn the lessons of history and make sure we do not let it happen again. I don’t think there is a military solution to this, but the sanctions have had some effect. You can see that in what has happened to the Russian rouble, what has happened to the Russian stock market and the difficulty the Russian banks have in gaining finance.” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/14/putin-russia-oil-price-collapse-sanctions-g20 PS NATO military spending is more than a trillion dollars, more than half of Russian GDP. The trouble is 75% of NATO military spending comes from the US and about 42% of the deployable troops are American. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO
How come there are sanctions against Russia for supporting ethnic Russians, but no sanctions against the UK and US for an illegal war in Iraq resulting in 1 million dead?
Probably because the "illegal war" in Iraq wasn't illegal nor did it result in a million dead or anywhere close to a million deaths. The Iraq War was authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1442 which found Iraq to be in material breach of the previous Iraq War cease fire. Resolution 1442 was passed the UN Security Council with a unanimous vote. No country abstained. And neither the US or UK or any of the coalition states illegally annex any portion of Iraq or steal its resources. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1441 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq
It was not the intent of the majority of the UN representatives who made resolution 1441 to enable any country to declare war on Iraq, without further rulings by the UN.
