Non-Proliferation a childish dream?

He wrote about fifty short novellas I think. I've read most if not all of them and I would say my favourites would have to be 'The Mountains of Madness' and 'Call of Cthulhu' (ofcourse). I never really liked his earlier dreamscape phase. You can see his influence by Poe. 'Fall of the House of Usher' has a remarkably similar atmosphere of suspense, mystery and gothic horror about it. I think Lovecraft's depiction of strange Alien creatures puts many modern writers to shame. Far more imaginative than Vulcans and Klingons. His interstellar creatures were more than just pointy ears and hairier versions of Ghengis Khan. Even masterpieces like War of the Worlds seem to me to depict essentially anthropomorphic Aliens. Monsters that are far too similar to us. With big metal vehicles carrying guns on top. Almost ourselves extrapolated into the future a hundred years. Asimov has said that sufficiently advanced technology would be impossible to differentiate from magic. A truly advanced being would be as a God. We would fathom its ways about as much as an ant fathoms a human cloud passing overhead.

 

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Anyway...to get back on track...

On the inertia weapons. In principle it's a simple thing. Doing it is another matter. We do not have the technology or knowledge in reaching NEOs quickly, derotating them, moving them, etc. We have one successful exploration of a well known big one. That's it.

I only say this because it also reflects on our ability to stop a naturally threatening NEO, and someone could read the above and think that it's not an issue. It is still a grave issue, one that may not pop its head up for centuries or more, but could just as easily be tomorrow's news that makes all of this year's news pointless.

I'm a bit fanatical about the issue, due to it being downplayed so much by the media, even after Levy-Shoemaker. Yet another reason to ramp up serious nuclear propulsion.

As for the question of nukes, treaties, and the like, given that the UN can't do much these days, even with the US's help (or pushing), I don't see treaties being held much longer. I only hope that those who go nuclear do it with both weapons and power in mind, and we eventually wise up to how silly the whole thing must look to any onlookers.

 

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It's certainly a challenge. That Eros asteroid landing was miraculous. Spectrographic analysis gives that rock an estimated value of around 40 trillion dollars in gold and platinum type metals. Landing it would cause the worlds economy to crash overnight!

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We know how to reach an NEO and it would be simpler than reaching the moon. Simpler still if we sent robots to do the job. That saves mass on life support systems such as air, food and water etc. Radiation shielding. Emergency lifeboats. Return fuel. The whole mission would become an order of magnitude easier to accomplish. We've never tried it but I think it's doable for a reasonable sum. After you weigh up the gains of such an enterprise. You would want many such asteroids but then we made many trips to the moon during Apollo.

Naturally, having the capability of moving asteroids around and utilising their resources also means you have the ability to divert rogues. A comet is the greatest threat today. As one astronomer put it, a stray comet falling from the Oort cloud toward the inner system would give only a few months notice. At this point in time there is absolutely nothing we could do about it. Nothing. That is assuming we even detect it that long before it reaches us. The last near miss wasn't noticed until 2 days after it passed between the Earth and it's moon. That doesn't give me much confidence in our early warning systems.

There is nothing silly about weapons and power. In times of peace we easily forget that our military is all that stands between our comfortable standard of living and invasion. The freedom we enjoy was fought for. Our place in the World was paid for with blood and there will always be others willing to pay a similar price. They await the moment of complacency which brought previous empires to their knees. The very same complacency which gave those great civilisations their moment of historical glory. Treaties are only paper. Like alliances they can be broken and often are. Often secretly.

The rule of might is the only true law in this world. If you don't believe me then try disarming the US and see how long it lasts. The US was not always a Super Power remember. Nothing stays static in a changing World. The balance of power is no exception. Proliferation of nuclear weapons is now beyond pretense of control. The path ahead is already determined. The cold war taught us everything to expect from nuclear nations. Only an immensely bigger stick can possibly stop it I think. One that remains in the hands of a single player.

 

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Analogies are often a bad thing, but I recently thought of a comparision to our current NEO state of technology with weather prediction.

Let's say that a NEO is like a hurricane, in that we can track hurricanes sometimes weeks ahead of time to predict risks and evacuations. A comet (or any rogue from outside the system) is a tornado, much less time.

Currently our NEO state of readiness is like a weatherman with a rain gauge and a windsock. No radar, no satellite pics, nothing else...

To bring us to a NEO monitoring point such as we have in weather today would require comparable abilities...remote observations in space, radar or something similar, and the ability to go and sample the problem object (like hurricane hunter planes).

Of course we'd need to step it up to the next level, control. We don't have this in weather really, and the analogy doesn't hold up as well, because the risks are far greater. But observing isn't enough, we have to be able to act if we find what we will eventually find. A potential impact.

 

I sincerely believe that asteroids should be our next target on the road to eventually conquering space. We are enamoured of Mars because of our history with it. Blood red War God of ancient legend or more recent science fiction fame. It is a world not totally unlike our own. The public is most interested in finding life and Mars is seen as a good place to start looking for it.

Asteroids on the other hand offer more in the longterm. More easily reachable and also more useful to us. Resources, low gravity and a manageable size. Everything from rocket fuel to metal ores is available. Even breathable air can be extracted. Hollow one out and you have a mobile home. One with radiation shields in the form of dirt walls hundreds of metres thick. Able to supply their own rocket fuel for transportation. Set one up in orbit around Earth and turn it into a hotel. When nanotube technology advances sufficiently enough you will have ready prepared ballast in place for space elevators. There is so much we could achieve if we put the effort into mastering asteroids. I believe they are a critical stride towards mastering space.

Much better than a shortlived flag ceremony on Mars. Sounds like Apollo all over again.