Most computer simulations of climate change are underestimating its severity

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by Plazma Inferno!, Apr 8, 2016.

  1. Plazma Inferno! Ding Ding Ding Ding Administrator

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    Most computer simulations of climate change are underestimating by at least one degree Fahrenheit how warm the world will get this century, a new study suggests.
    It all comes down to clouds and how much heat they are trapping. According to the new study, computer model simulations say there is more ice and less liquid water in clouds than a decade of satellite observations show.
    The more water and less ice in clouds, the more heat is trapped and less the light is reflected, said scientists. Even though it is below freezing, the clouds still have lots of liquid water because they don't have enough particles that help the water turn to ice crystals.
    As the climate changes, there will be more clouds with far more liquid, and global warming will be higher than previously thought.

    http://phys.org/news/2016-04-worse-experts.html
     
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  3. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    My study doesn't agree with their studies, so I conclude theirs must be wrong.

    My recollection is that for the most part the "official" IPCC projections were progressively reduced as the data got better.
     
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  5. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Your recollection is in error - the only projection coming in milder or slower than the expected value of the older projections has been average global air temperature, and even that's stayed in in range.

    Afaik all the others (glacial and sea ice melt, ocean and lake and river temperatures, sea level rise, methane release, weather variations including drought severity, and so forth) have been forcing the best guess IPCC projections faster and higher.
     
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  7. Schneibster Registered Member

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    That's interesting, iceaura. I hadn't been following things that closely. That's a pretty impressive list of correct predictions.
     

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