Mind Ramblings

Discussion in 'Intelligence & Machines' started by Cris, Feb 11, 2002.

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  1. Cris In search of Immortality Valued Senior Member

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  3. ImaHamster2 Registered Senior Member

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    Cris, this hamster read through Mind Ramblings. It's scary reading a hamster's thoughts writ by a stranger. Perhaps this hamster has already been copied. (Or is a copy.)

    Imagine the boring conversations. Rambler says, “I believe this.” Imahamster replies, “Yeah, this hamster does to.” “Oh well, what’s on TV tonight?”
     
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  5. Rick Valued Senior Member

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    Hey Cris alredy visited that site long time back,thanks for an update.you might want to take a look at err...rather a compiled but little longish version of my own thoughts coupled with loads of material from the other websites...in my own thread Robots:Are we close yet?

    Thanks for great site.

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    bye!
     
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  7. Cris In search of Immortality Valued Senior Member

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    Zion,

    Yes I wouldn't be surprised that this has been seen before, I purposely didn't look too hard since I felt this was an essential starting point for some other topics.

    I think we/I need to add some more reference links in the sticky topic. Or better still begin a sticky links topic.

    Cris
     
  8. Rick Valued Senior Member

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    Cris,

    I would be highly oblidged if you could enlighten me about Two Books:
    <B>AGE OF SPIRITUAL MACHINES</B>
    <B>ROBO SAPIENS</B>

    what exactly it prophesizes,explains or proposes...


    bye!
     
  9. Cris In search of Immortality Valued Senior Member

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    Zion,

    Ok I'll write up a book review tonight if I have time. Two very interesting books and very different in their styles and approach.

    Cris
     
  10. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    My 2 cents on "Mind Ramblings" by KeithW

    Normally I would agree with the supposition presented in the article, but today, I want to be difficult and would like to give you a pessimistic view, due to the fact that I am in the middle of a project that requires "emergent complexity" applications and I am frustrated.

    It is true that human technology has been increasing in complexity. However, at the same time, human development has not moved very far. It is the human development that will put a dent on the author's utopia. From my experience between 1973 and 2003:

    *** I could not get rid of the blank space below , let me know if there is a trick to it
    <table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" border="1" width="100%">
    <tbody>
    <tr valign="Top">
    <td>Item .....................$Cost -&gt;</td>
    <td valign="Top">1973<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">2003<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">2033<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">2063<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">2093<br>
    </td>
    </tr>
    <tr valign="Top">
    <td valign="Top">Standard Car<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">30,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">300,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3 million<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">30 million<br>
    </td>
    </tr>
    <tr valign="Top">
    <td valign="Top">Food per month<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">200<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">1,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">5,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">10,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">50,000<br>
    </td>
    </tr>
    <tr valign="Top">
    <td valign="Top">Home<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top"> 20,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">200,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">2 million<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">20 million<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">200 million<br>
    </td>
    </tr>
    <tr valign="Top">
    <td valign="Top">Electronics<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">3,000<br>
    </td>
    </tr>
    <tr valign="Top">
    <td valign="Top">Income<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">15,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">150,000<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">0 (unemployed)<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">0 (unemployed<br>
    </td>
    <td valign="Top">0 (unemployed)<br>
    </td>
    </tr>
    </tbody>
    </table>
    <br>
    ***<br>
    As you can see, if robots will take over, then there will be widespread unemployment, after all, that is the basis of the article that we will not work for food.

    Robots

    Today, we use extensive amount of robots and automation in industrial production, from mining raw material to making chemicals, oil and cars. Have you noticed that the price of the cars have gone down any? In fact, the cars you bought in 1973 can be paid on credit in 24 months. Today, it is 60 months. Before you know it, you will have to get a 30 year loan to pay for a car that will only last 10 years. We can put a man on the moon with the old technology, but we have been tinkering with fuel cells and photocells for 15 years without much success. Is the technology so difficult or is it human greed that will not allow us to get there? While the electronic performance is going up, the mechanical items price is also going up. We have technology today such that a lawn mower can self propel and mow your yard. But it will cost too much to justify such an investment. C3PO robots are possible in 2033 but will not happen for many reasons.

    Prosthesis

    Electronic prosthesis leading to augmenting your body with electromechanical parts are possible. But that vision is silo based similar to our government with many departments that rarely collaborate. The theory assumes that technology will advance faster in this area than genetics. That is not true at all. Once you understand the biochemistry of gene , it is a single subject that can be improved upon at a very fast rate where as electromechanical devices are much more difficult to design to solve highly complex systems. So, my bet will be in the gene science and bioinformatics.

    Computing Power

    There is a dark side to computing power and advancement in technology. By 2050, we will still have the Moslem fundamentalists (or any religion) who will despise the quality of life and utopians society we are trying to create through technology. So they will use this technology to create advanced small footprint bombs (nuclear, chemical, biological) to blow up New York. If you think 911 caused this much damage to economy, imagine the whole New York - the financial center of the planet, gone. The aftermath will be devastating to the planet and not just USA.

    In this pessimistic view, we are plunged into a barbaric society with science gone wild. This view ends with an automated global nuclear war precipitated by the power vested with one person somewhere on the globe.

    Those who would like to portray the future vision always forget the multidimensional nature of reality. They talk about "emergent complexity" but base their vision on extrapolation of a very few threads. The future is what the future will bring. With good leadership, we may be able to avert any disaster and reach the utopia we seek. The universe always shows you the path, it is upto you to take it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2002
  11. Stryder Keeper of "good" ideas. Valued Senior Member

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    I would guess that the blank space is a problem with nested tables.

    Speaking of the whole "When Robots rule the Earth" issue,
    I've got this rather amusing idea for a game that involves a little of something that someone posted up for another game and a whole lot of my own imagination.

    I can't go into full details as hopefully I will be creating it. (Thats why I mentioned a MUD thread in the Computer section)

    But my basic idea was this:

    In the future, you get to purchase your own Robot. You have to do it, as the Robot is what earns your crust. (money)

    You can get a job, like before, but robots can run for many more hours before needing maintainance, so they are actually paid Higher than a human.

    The more robots you own, the more money you make. The robots can be kitted to do specific tasks.

    I'm not mentioning any more, your just have to keep any eye out for it appearing in the shops within a year or two.
     
  12. ImaHamster2 Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    220
    A few comments on the chart…

    People tend to spend their incomes. Over time what they buy remains pretty consistent, e.g. food, clothing, shelter, transportation, healthcare, and entertainment. As incomes rise the amount spent in each area rises. There is some shifting as more income is moved from “necessities” to entertainment.

    Many food staples are very cheap, e.g. bulk rice, beans, canned fruits and vegetables. Modern food is largely entertainment and convenience. People pay for both.

    Cars are more a statement of economic status than transportation. Thus the average car price rises with rising income.

    Home prices reflect competition for favorable locations, increased size, increased luxury, and rising labor costs. Status is again a major factor.

    In this hamster's opinion the chart’s linear projections largely reflect the rise in family income over the last thirty years.

    Manufacturing productivity has significantly improved in most areas over the last thirty years. The consumer is getting more value.

    Electronics, computing, information technology, nanotech, and biotech are merging. The technologies are complementary. The chip that will be embedded in this hamster’s brain may not be silicon but will contain technology derived from the electronics/computing industry.

    “There is a dark side to computing power and advancement in technology.”

    This hamster agrees. Advanced technology puts more power into human hands. Power to do harm as well as power to help. There is also a real danger that technology as represented by AI or enhanced biological intelligence will be uncontrollable. The mass of humanity might no longer be the dominant force on earth. That might be good or bad.

    (In this hamster’s opinion society will change so drastically in the next thirty years that hundred year projections have little predictive power.)
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2002
  13. Chagur .Seeker. Registered Senior Member

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    2,235
    Hi, all ...

    I do think C.P. Snow had it right:

    "Technology … is a queer thing. It brings you great gifts with one hand,
    and it stabs you in the back with the other."

    Take care

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  14. ralph nader Banned Banned

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    just another point in time

    What we are going through now is just another point in time where man's intelliegence begins to progress and then it will come to a sudden stop. The reason for this being man can only advance at a set rate. If he continues to progress he will only fall short on his achievements and hinder himself until it is time for him to advance again.
     
  15. kmguru Staff Member

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    I would like to see if anybody has done any research into the progress of humans in the last 4000 years and plotted a graph showing how it rises and levels off over time. That would give us some indication as to if we will continue or level off. Unfortunately that prediction is based on history - any new variables can throw off the prediction curve.
     
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