Mexican Swine Flu. A New Pandemic?

Crying Wolf will induce apathy in some & increase panic in some.

 

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StrangerInAStrangeLa: "Crying Wolf will induce apathy in some & increase panic in some."

I'm curious where you make the distinction between "crying wolf" and emergency preparedness. Do you consider evacuation drills in high-density workplaces and schools to be promotions of apathy and panic? As transportation advances continue to reduce our biological separation, what makes you certain that containment drills would be counterproductive?

 

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Panicking can be the wisest action.


Take for example the man who cooly goes back to his office during a fire to get his laptop, or the people who sit calmly on a crashed plane waiting for someone to tell them what to do.
A lot of people who didn't panic are dead because of it.

 

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Reasonable preparedness is good. Unfortunately, we're not reasonably prepared for many possible disasters.
This current hysteria over swine flu is without validity so far.

 

Panic is by definition not wise & by obvious usual consequences not wise.
Chance circumstances alone make an action seem good even as that action in the vast majority of cases seems bad.
Many more people are not dead because of lack of panic.

 

OK, for the very literal minded..............

What appears to some individuals as unnecessary activity
may in fuller analysis be revealed as purposeful.

 

I too am literally a fan of Fuller analysis:

 

You can make a square out of triangles, but you cannot make a triangle out of squares. Therefore triangles are better. The theory falls down when you come to circles however.

 

"you cannot make a triangle out of squares"

I fold.

 

"Swine flu milder than expected"

It looks now doubtful that we are going to have people dressed in sackcloth and ashes. Nor will we have the opportunity to paint large red crosses on our houses so that streetcarts can take away our dead. When paying for things, we will not be able to soak our money in vinegar. People will not be queueing at their local churches to be shriven.
Is anyone else just a tiny bit disappointed?

 

all this commotion about the swine flu is more dangerous than the flu, and what about all the people who die from flu every winter?

i read somehwere that 26 people have died because of this swine flu, but 25 of them died from the injection,

 

Captain Kremmen: "Is anyone else just a tiny bit disappointed?"

I'm disappointed that we're not developing and practicing containment for the far more lethal strain that is likely to emerge. Eventually, either those of us desirous of disaster, or those of us who prefer rational response will get their wish, when our "number" is up. We are collectively (by our psychological and physical preparedness) increasing the probability of one or the other outcome, with each viral roll of the dice (virus mutation). We don't know how many chances we get before the next devastating outbreak, but if we're not ready when it happens, we'll all come to rue past complacency.

 

the black cloud rolled in again.

 

I routinely deal with similar attitudes as yours in my work, John99. Before each takeoff in an airplane, I review the best responses to worst-case emergencies during the takeoff and departure. This does not make me a Cassandra. It doesn't mean I am afraid of my flying machine. But the practice, and the mental attitude enable prompt and correct response when (for example) an engine fails, and there is no time to deliberate. Occasionally I get an eyeroll, or "wet blanket" comment from a student who doesn't get it. In flight training, I have ways of converting that dismissive attitude into fully-engaged level-headed readiness.

I am aware that I have limited ability to influence a common attitude like yours, even though it may someday become very dangerous, if the attitude remains prevalent. The closest thing we have to the emergency drills I teach and practice in aviation, is an instructive event like H1N1 2009. To me, every time a contagious new virus jumps species, we're all going headlong into an unrehearsed takeoff, and none of us knows how it's going to turn out, or how we're going to respond if the worst happens. Call me weird, but I'm not comfortable with that.

 

I know where you are coming from with the plane analogy. Let me try to reverse it on you. Do you tell your passengers to get their parachutes on when you've let the fuel get too rich(or too lean) and it coughs the engine a bit for a few minutes?

That's what WHO did. I swear it really over the top - vaccine? Really? gimme a break. We have this thing - it's called an immune system. It's a flu and it's worldwide, big fucking deal.

 

When H1N1 2009 first came to the world's attention, we didn't know what we were facing, and there were serious indications of real trouble. Until we know what we're dealing with, business as usual is irresponsible- especially when it comes to concentrated crowds, and transporting potentially contagious people far and wide, and at high speed. This could have been a big fucking deal, not only for the millions who might have died, but also for the survivors in societal turmoil. If you think that's impossible, you should consider investigating further.

nietzschefan: "Do you tell your passengers to get their parachutes on when you've let the fuel get too rich(or too lean) and it coughs the engine a bit for a few minutes?"

You still haven't grasped the analogy. The threat of a pandemic is not removable by repositioning a control lever. If you'll indulge me one more time, I'll try and provide a quick example that more closely resembles the situation that the world was confronted with back in mid-April:

Imagine riding with me as we taxi out, when we hear information over the radio that someone may have done something to disable our airplane just moments before... well, the flight stops right there. This trip is over, and we're doing what is most prudent until we find out just exactly what's going on. Maybe it takes a few minutes to isolate, and maybe it takes longer. The point is, it would be irresponsible to continue with normal routine, just because due precaution might alarm you, or because a false alarm might embarrass me. Provided I clearly communicate with you, and with any other passengers about our safety concern, most will understand. With consistent open communication as the discrepancy is resolved, most passengers will also have enhanced confidence in the decisions I'm making after a threat is evaluated, and we resume normal operations.

It's the same when WHO Hears a Hurt-on. When they tell us it's not just another day, and to take serious measures at mitigating a pandemic, it's not an incitement to panic- It's the opposite: An appeal to rational precautions. Safety measures for the worst-case can be initiated, for the relatively short period of time during which the threat is fully identified and evaluated. Around the earliest outbreaks of a potentially dangerous virus, we should be developing widely-understood routines for containing and evaluating the situation as closely as possible, before continuing with life as usual. If it is communicated plainly enough, most people will understand that sometimes intelligent people stop what they're doing, so that we can proceed with our busy routines with much greater confidence, efficiency, and safety over the long run.

"It's a flu and it's worldwide, big fucking deal."

We failed the exercise. Before we knew what it was, we spread it everywhere by airplane. I'm not trying to suggest that perfect containment is possible in pandemic situations. But slowing every threatening outbreak certainly is feasible and worth practicing. Time will be so precious while preparing populations in all the many psychological and logistical ways necessitated by a real plague. The negligence we are still conditioned to is not going buy us that precious time, when something truly deadly breaks out.

 

One thing which would help to contain the virus would be to have people returning from foreign visits self isolate themselves for 5 days after the trip.
This was not done in the UK and I think they missed a trick.

 

Every year there's a new type of flu, usually several. We never know what the result will be until we find out.
We should be better prepared, we should practice emergency procedures but we should not blow things way out of proportion.
They now say it's mild, after all. Guess what? They yet do not know what the final result will be.
SARS scare = BULLSHIT! Avian flu scare = BULLSHIT! Swine flu scare = BULLSHIT (So far)! Enough is frigging ENOUGH!

 

Some professor has just said on the TV that it might be a good idea, given that the flu is a mild version, not to prevent its spread too assiduously, as exposure to it might help by conferring immunity to a later more injurious variety.

I said that ages ago.
See post 118. 30th April.

Did the Prof give me any credit for the idea. No.

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