Members coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'About the Members' started by James R, Mar 14, 2020.

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Record your own coronavirus status here (you can change your response if circumstances change).

This poll will close on Mar 14, 2021 at 10:34 AM.
  1. I do not believe I currently have Covid-19.

    83.3%
  2. I feel like I have some symptoms that might be Covid-19. Not a confirmed case yet.

    16.7%
  3. I currently have a confirmed case of Covid-19 (i.e. I have tested positive for the virus).

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. I have mild symptoms.

    11.1%
  5. I have medium level symptoms.

    5.6%
  6. I am self-isolating while I have the symptoms (e.g. at home).

    11.1%
  7. I am hospitalised with a case of Covid-19.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. I have symptoms of a confirmed case of Covid-19, but I feel like the worst is past.

    5.6%
  9. I have recovered from a confirmed case of Covid-19.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. I don't want to answer this poll.

    16.7%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,545
    According to the UK advice I have seen, body aches are a feature, though not mentioned in all the descriptions.

    It's obviously the case that all these symptoms can be experienced with other forms of flu. However, I have had 4 of the listed symptoms of Covid-19, at a time when it is obviously rife across the whole of London, as indicated by the fact that the hospitals are close to full of cases and a third of London Underground staff are now off, either sick or self-isolating due to contact with someone who has symptoms.

    Given this alignment of evidence, I am 90% confident I have had Covid-19.

    By the way, I have just spoken to a French friend in Grenoble who was taken into hospital for 2 days with it. She, like me, lost her sense of smell and taste for a week. None of this is proof of anything of course - only a +ve test would do that - but the weight of evidence is pretty strong.
     
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    18,089
    90% certain my 5 year old had COVID-19. 50% certain that I had it. I had mild symptoms - body aches, one day fever, dry cough, exhaustion. He had similar symptoms, much more severe.
     
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  5. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,545
    Sounds very similar to my experience and that of several people I know.
     
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  7. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    Are you a smoker?
    The reason I ask is that I am and have had most symptoms for over 10 years in some form or another...


    Anxiety alone has the ability to mimic most COVID symptoms. ( excluding fever - generally)
     
  8. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    Are you guys ok now?
    How long ago did you feel you had recovered?
    best wishes Billvon!
     
  9. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,605
    The nurse was also pretty adamemt for a urine test which seemed a bit abnormal so I dunno.
     
  10. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,545
    No I have never smoked.

    Nor am I overweight, nor do I have high blood pressure. I do however have a slight susceptibility to a heart arrhythmia: atrial fibrillation. That seems to have been my only risk factor for this virus. But I doubt these factors fully explain why I got it mildly.
     
    Quantum Quack likes this.
  11. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    18,089
    About a week ago. I still have a residual cough but I feel fine. Everyone else is fine.
    Thanks!
     
    James R and Quantum Quack like this.
  12. Xelasnave.1947 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,763
    What is the actual death rate?
    Is there anyway to work that out?
    I get the impression there are many more cases than will be recorded which can only mean the percentages are going to be less.
    However I get a number from 5 down to less than half a percent ... still if you run that on the world population we still get huge numbers.
    With all businesses collapsing is thinking we are at the start of the end unreasonable.
    Will we see a new world government arise from the ashes?
    Being indoors has a way of sending one crazy so I wonder how many folk who are on the edge are ready to lose it.
    Will we see some mass shootings for example.
    Hmmmm maybe not if we don't have any crouds.
    I have not said anything up till now but I have not been well, I think I had a high temp (no thermometer to check for sure) for a while and a little cough and rather tired and demotivated..but just today I feel rather much better than I have for some time.
    Most of all I do wonder why nothing has appeared in the conspiracy section...you could think there would be some ... I expect if you looked on the net there will be a few. I should start a thread.
    Alex
     
  13. Jeeves Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    4,508
    It varies by country. 0.5 to 3.5% is a wide spread, because it largely depends on patient resistance and access to medical intervention. In Canada, so far, it's well under 1% dead compared to around 8% recovered.
    If you start with a population of undernourished old people and an inadequate or remote health care system, and/or slow, inappropriate administrative response, the percentage rises steeply.
    Stats are available daily, by world, country and province.After that, it's simple arithmetic. What else have you got yo do?
    Probably, as very mild cases won't be tested even in advanced nations, and some places have poor services and documentation, and some governments are secretive, while others lie almost reflexively.
    It's a pivotal event. Some things will change - though perhaps not radically or immediately.
    No.
    For very sociable people, I suppose it's a strain. For me, no big deal. For the youngsters -- they're thumbing their phones and hardly look up anyway - they may not even notice.We might consider this an opportunity to do those tedious chores we've been putting off. Got a box of curly old photographs to sort?
    How?
    Exactly. But I guess a few fringies will do away with their spouses and parents.
    Maybe. But then, you're still allowed to have regular flu, or just be tense and out of sorts.
     
    Xelasnave.1947 likes this.
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    Sorry to correct you but I think it is important enough to mention:
    Italy is running a CFR** of 10.83% of confirmed cases.
    Spain is running a CFR of 8.16%
    France is running a CFR of 6.15%
    UK is running at about CFR 5.96%

    (**CFR = Case Fatality rate)
    so we do not underestimate the severity of this virus.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Today 29-03-2020 (au)

    btw 25,207 cases are either severe or critical. 5% of case load up from 4% a few days ago.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  15. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

    Messages:
    34,471
    The problem with CFRs based only on confirmed cases is that a lot of cases are not being detected, largely due a lack of across-the-board testing. Chances are that a lot of people getting Covid-19 are either asymptomatic or else have mild symptoms. Those people are not necessarily going to doctors or reporting their illness. They might simply be self-isolating. Some won't even be aware they have the virus.

    In the end, I expect the CFR will probably settle somewhere between about 0.5% and 2%.
     
  16. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    Except we are using stats about Confirmed cases and not speculating on undefined cases that could range from Flu , common cold or even anxiety and hay-fever.

    How will we be able to distinguish those cases that are unreported, as being COVID or other if not tested specifically for it?
    6 days ago over 135,000 tests were carried out in Australia, on those presenting with symptoms with only 1353 cases confirmed as COVID-19.
    That means that the vast majority of symptomatic cases ( about 133647 or 99%) were tested as not COVID.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  17. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,545
    These figures tell you nothing. You are just spraying more junk statistics around hysterically, without thinking about what they signify - or don't signify.

    As James has pointed out, and as I have told you before, the denominator in these data depends entirely on the availability of testing in each country and the testing policy. For example, in the UK it has not been policy even to try to test people like me who think they have had the virus, let alone people who may be asymptomatic carriers. The only people tested are those ill enough to get sent for medical treatment. Out of the 7 people I know in the UK who have had it, only one went to hospital and was tested. So the other 6 don't appear in any of the UK statistics, even though they have probably all had the virus and got over it.

    But this applies only to the UK. In other countries, they have different policies. So you cannot compare these numbers between countries and get anything useful from them whatsoever.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  18. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

    Messages:
    34,471
    Okay. I admit I'm a little unclear on what the CFR is, exactly.

    Is it, ultimately, supposed to be the fatality rate for all cases of the virus, or only the fatality rate for confirmed cases of the virus (e.g. confirmed with a lab test)? My point is that those two figures are likely to be different, with the rate for all cases being significantly lower than the rate for confirmed cases.

    Is there some other abbreviation I should be using instead of CFR?
     
  19. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    It is true that the situation is confused... there is no doubt about it..

    The figures tell us that the Fatality rate of a couple of weeks ago est: as per Jeeves post, is no longer valid.
    Thus understating the severity.
    To say that the fatality rate is only between 0.5-3.5% is misleading and may lessen the need in some peoples minds for social distancing and self isolation.
    If symptomatic and they are not tested then they could be suffering all manner of conditions other than COVID.
    This problem is mitigated by looking at how many tests are done and how many return positive.
    In Australia 99% tests return negative. This means that those that present to a clinic with symptoms or are suspected of exposure, 99% are tested as NOT having COVID.
    At the moment testing can only be done under a strict criteria. These test results reinforce the validity of the fatality rate. IMO.

    Italy's CFR of 10.83% is quite a valid stat. and accepted as such by much of the medical world, as are all the others I mentioned.

    Perhaps you would be happier if we just let people underestimate this virus, but I am not.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  20. exchemist Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,545
    No, these figures do not tell you the fatality rate.

    They tell you the fatalities as a percentage of the cases tested only.

    The number of cases tested is fewer than the total infections, in most countries considerably fewer.

    So using these data as fatality rates will overestimate the true fatality rate. In the UK it certainly overestimates it considerably - I would guess by a factor of 10, though the only way to be sure is a lot more testing.

    But OK, you are not in full command of your faculties, so this may not get through.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  21. Xelasnave.1947 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,763
    Thanks that was the point I was trying to make earlier.
    I liked your post but I did not wish to buy in on your last sentence.
    Alex
     
  22. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    Which is why I refer to the cases as confirmed cases and not tests.
    The percentages are not about cases tested. They are of confirmed cases ( those that return positive to COVID)
    So you have a sample of the population of confirmed COVID cases and a certain percentage of all those cases dies.
    The current ratio for the UK is about 5.96%
    Increasing your survey population size isn't necessarily going to change that.



    You have to factor in the incubators as well to make anything meaningful and of course we can not do that...plus you have deaths than can have COVID implications but not tested for COVID.
     
  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,484
    Confirmed cases only ( by lab test )
    The global average CFR is about 4.65% as of tonight 29-03-2020 (au)
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020

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