Is there anything that can save it...aside from fracking?Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! In 2016 the US will be right in the middle of a demographic wave of retired white Americans drawing oceans of wealth out of the system. The younger generation will be mostly hispanic, african...with high unemployment and underemployment. Whatever domestic production still exists will be performed by robots. The 0.1 percent of elites will hoard MORE of whats left...and many of them will be Asian foreigners. The national debt will be over 22 trillion, with the Federal Reserve still cranking out the cash to buy more food stamps and bullets. When Obama looks out the window of the Oval office for the last time...what kind of America will he see???
Sure. The slow and inevitable recovery of the economy. These things come in cycles. An America very much like the one today, just with a stronger economy and more debt.
Demographic cycles are very important yes. For the next decade, the US will see huge numbers of baby boomers stop producing and start withdrawing retirement benefits from the system.
Currently, the only thing propping up the economy IS more debt...in the same way that an unemployed person can fluff up his own accounts with more credit card advances.
Most of the problem is that most people don't know what is wrong and the ones who do are being mum because they think people will not accept the information well. Then, on the other hand, there are various views on what is going on, depending on individuals' particular situations. It may feel a little less harsh for us English speakers if I tell a European story, because they are removed from most of our lives, separated by ocean and language. Many people blame the Greeks for their problems, but the creditors aren't innocent because they wanted to lend the money. Codependency, in a way. One party wanting to take advantage of the haplessness of another is a tragic story that is way too common. Similar things are involved with the USA debt, too.
Yes its a old trick...extend huge loans to parties who cannot possibly pay it back, and then seize their assets when they dont. Investment bankers in Manhattan and London may soon be the proud new owners of some choice mediterranean real estate...the entire island of Crete perhaps?
I'm not sure if the USD will remain the world reserve currency in the coming decade and that could end before 2016. I wouldn't be surprised if the US didn't start a War with Iran. It's probably the best prediction that can be made of Keynesian. I expect we'll be really starting to feel the Depression by 2016. The government will have come up with lots of idiotic 'solutions' that'll make even more of a mess of things. On the brighter side of the equation, I think the USA has the potential to be an energy exporter again - we've got our own tar sands too you know!
If you were president and had a choice between creating 20% unemployment or 20% inflation...which would you choose???
The younger generation will not be mostly hispanic and african american. Thats a false statement, you can go to this site. http://www.bls.gov/gps/ look at the 2011 PDF for employment and unemployment broken down by states.
Agreed. However that has been true since the 1940's (and back then it was a higher percentage of our GDP) so a sudden problem with debt that pops up in the next 4 years is unlikely.
The national debt rose during the 1940s as you say, but was very stable from 1945 to the early 1980s. We know the system's in deep trouble when erasing the annual deficit spending puts the GDP in negative territory...esp when this happens several years in a row. And this doesnt even include private debt, which has gone into orbit relative to historical precedents.
Nevertheless, they will be the power brokers...their vote will be the deciding factor in most federal elections.
Agreed. We paid it back down in the 1950's, and we have to do that again. Back then it required 90% tax rates; hopefully this time it won't require anything so drastic.
Its going to require three VERY unlikely things. 1. Higher taxes on the wealthy. 2. Drastic military spending cuts. 3. Balance or surplus of international trade.
I think 1 and 2 are key. And unfortunately I agree that they are unlikely. Democrats are unwilling to cut spending; Republicans are unwilling to increase taxes. The one good thing about the upcoming fiscal cliff is that it may force action on both of those.
Chances are that GOP will come back as President and then 2016 and 2017 this country will say kaput....Now though we have some plans in place
