Is Yellowstone Going to Erupt?

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by soullust, May 4, 2010.

  1. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    The Lake Taupo Supervolcano erupted in ce 180. The effects of this eruption were recorded by the Chinese and the Romans, and teh Hatepe Eruption was a small eruption by Taupo standards, something like 1/10th the size of the pervious three, still a VEI 7, still bigger than Tambora.

    If that's not good enough for you, then here's something else to consider, the Taupo Supervolcano produced a VEI 8 (The Oruanui eruption) 26 thousand years ago. Why could this be important to consider? Because it offers a better explanation. Eruptions that reach VEI8 have not occured in recorded history, because eruptions that reach VEI8 are infrequent, and have occured recently.
     
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  3. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Probably yes in principle but you more likely will trigger the big one.

    Anyway it will never be done as the legal system would hold you responsible and you cannot prove it was gonging to happen anyway. Just declare bankruptcy, change your name, and go to small Mexican village quickly if you did trigger even a small one.
     
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  5. John99 Banned Banned

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    I dont know where you are getting your information from.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

    Did i say there were no large eruptions of volcanoes? Nothing in your post would indicate extinction level eruptions.

    and you should take your own advice.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2010
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  7. John99 Banned Banned

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    What did they write about it?
     
  8. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    Herodian of Antioch had this to say about it in Chapter XIV of 'History of the Roman Empire':
    I haven't been able to track down exactly what Fan Ye had to say about it, but here's the pay per view Nature article that describes the historical aspects:
    A new date for the Taupo eruption, New Zealand: C. J. N. Wilson, N. N. Ambraseys, J. Bradley & G. P. L. Walker
     
  9. John99 Banned Banned

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    Well unless someone comes up with some evidence my assertion that no 'super eruptions' have occurred (worse than we have seen in modern times - past 2000 years or so) then that constitutes NO proof.
     
  10. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    If you accept smaller events like Tunguska as evidence supporting occasional very large asteroid strikes, you might as well accept ordinary large explosive volcanoes as evidence supporting super eruptions.

    Or you could just take the determination of every single expert in every relevant field as a reasonable indication of presumptive likelihood.
     
  11. John99 Banned Banned

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    That is different because i know big rocks exist.
     
  12. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    Right. So you're saying that the peer reviewed literature, which I have spoonfed you is wrong on the basis of what... Your ignorance?
     
  13. John99 Banned Banned

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    Where did it say in your articles that those eruption were any worse than the eruptions we have actual EVIDENCE of, that people witnessed. I didnt pay to read the article so i cannot comment on it.

    Yes i am ignorant of events that may have happened millions of years ago.
     
  14. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    24,054
    And you don't know that big volcanoes exist?

    They are pretty easy to see, although the very biggest calderas are best seen from very high altitude - they are many miles wide.

    Some pictures, since you haven't traveled much: http://nsf.gov/news/mmg/media/images/CalderaRim2.jpg
    http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/images/1992-rbs-aerialmirror_large.jpg (from: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/gallery_volcanic.html)

    http://www.decadevolcano.net/photos/keywords/caldera.htm

    http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Imgs/Jpg/...rial_crater_lake_mount_scott_12-10-05_med.jpg
    more on Crater Lake, an "ordinary" example: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/CraterLake/description_crater_lake.html
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2010
  15. John99 Banned Banned

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    yes, i do. all i am saying is that there is a very good chance that we already know what volcanoes are capable of and what they are not.

    That is true. So do you think that means it was from an eruption or does a volcano just happen to be there? In that circle.
     
  16. John99 Banned Banned

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  17. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    And big rocks.

    Capable of quite a bit, apparently - by the evidence.

    So what you are wondering about is the chance that large craters surrounded by huge deposits of ash and lava and formerly very hot rock, that look exactly like the remains of very big versions of smaller volcanic events like the Krakatoa or (even smaller) Mt St Helens explosions, just look like that by coincidence.

    What appears to be the remains of a mountain that blew up in a familiar way, only on a much larger scale, is for some reason too big to be such remains?

    What's your cutoff, for credibility in your eyes - ten times Mt St Helens? 20? 200?

    People say it's a neat place to visit. What were you curious about? I'd try Google.
     
  18. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    The information I gave you was about the most recent eruption, which was bigger than Tambora, but still only a VEI 7 (so not technically a Super Eruption, and I didn't claim it was).

    I'm not talking about events that happened millions of years ago, I'm talking about events that happened thousands of years ago.

    As far as the Hatepe eruption goes - here's Book 1 of Herodian of Antioch's 'History of the roman empire'. One of the sources that I cited in a previous post.
    http://www.tertullian.org/fathers/herodian_01_book1.htm
    Rome is at 41°N 12°E, the Taupo caldera is situated at 38°S 175°E
    If you can't figure out for yourself that for something to happen in Taupo to have visible effects in a location of the world antipodal to it suggest that it was pretty big, and pretty violent then...

    And that's without discussing the Oruanui eruption (26.5kya, VEI 8 supervolcanic eruption).

    Again, the answer to your 'objection is simple': They are rare, and they have occured recently.

    There have been 47 volcanic eruptions of VEI 8 (that we have found evidence for), of which 42 have occured in the last 36 million years, which averages every 860ka, with Wikipedia listing the frequency as being ≥ 10,000 years, with the most recent one being 26,000 years ago.

    You're argument of "But they haven't happened recently" is, to put it bluntly, both ascientific, and absurdly ridiculous.

    Addendum:
    According to Mason, Pyle, And Oppenheimer, based on their analysis of previous supervolcanic eruptions, they estimate a 75% chance for one occuring in the next million years, and a 1% chance for one occuring in the next 460-7,200 years.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2010
  19. John99 Banned Banned

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    More clever insults.

    http://geology.about.com/cs/basics_hazard/f/faq6bigeruption.htm

    We will never see eruptions like those, (edit: the chances go down as time goes by - the theory being that this is 'young earth' phenomenon) do you think the earth creates these conditions by its mere existence? If that is the case then you may also believe that the earth creates its own oil as a byproduct of its existence, which is actually possible.

    http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stanley_ambrose.php

    In the link above i found the temperature chart interesting.

    120k, 180k, 220k and 240k?
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2010
  20. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    24,054
    Apparently I was unclear, allow me to rephrase the question: you have expressed doubts about the occurrence of very large volcanoes. At what claimed size do these doubts kick in - your link mentions several volcanoes of various sizes, all fairly recent. Do you doubt any of them? If you do not, what is the cutoff size for credibility in your view?

    You have compared first the Grand Canyon, something like 20 million years in the forming and incorporating rock 2 billion years old, and now oil formation of 100 million years and more, with the Yellowstone caldera forming explosions - the last of which, a midsized one, was about 150k years ago.

    You have at least four orders of magnitude in your age range there. To what do these comparisons refer?
     
  21. John99 Banned Banned

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    i dont think i expressed doubts of the occurrence of large volcanoes. why or how would i be able to pull that off? i express doubts relating to post #4.
     
  22. Trippy ALEA IACTA EST Staff Member

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    What parts of this:

    Do you have doubts about?
     
  23. John99 Banned Banned

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    What happened to my post?
     

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