Is Greece to be Putin's "Big and Better Crimea"?

If Greece does leave the Euro and greatly lowers it debt by defaulting on most of that is externally owed, who will be their friend / help back their new currency (or even let them use theirs*)?
Answer is sort of obvious, is it not?

Crimea is tiny, almost an island in the Black Sea with narrow straight between it and Russia. Like most small islands, it lacks water. Greece is much bigger with many islands but long land boundary with Europe and has plenty of water. It is on the Mediterranean - a real plum for Putin to move troops into with ports on the Med - No need to send warships thru the narrow, Turkey controlled Bosporus straight.

* The rubble has recovered much of the strength it lost as Russia builds its gold hoard, signs long term fuel deals with China, and to slight extent, diversifies its economy.

 

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Sounds like conspiracy theory territory.

 

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No. IF that is how it all plays out*, it will be very public, with much open discussion. Who would be the "conspirators"?

* I think this is possible, interesting, but less than 50% probable. That probability increases some if US does go ahead with its currently being discussed plan to place tanks and mobile artillery pieces on Russia western border. I.e. Russian troops, tanks, and artillery pieces in Greece is a nice "flanking maneuver." Long time Russian ally, Serbia, would possibly let them come further into Europe with little objections.

 

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Do you even realize how stupid this sounds? You think Europe, Nato and the US would let Putin snatch up Greece? Wow.

 

Actually it isn’t. Two, if Greece gets kicked out of the EU, it will still be a member of NATO.; I don’t think there is any will in Greece to become Putin’s proxy state. Three, why would Greece need any state to “back its currency”? It wouldn’t. Greece would create its own currency, backed only by the Greek government just like every other currency. Now that would create inflationary problems for Greece and some economic dislocation. But what is the point of jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire?

If Greece decided to cozy up to Putin it would also subject its very fragile economy to economic sanctions. Greeks may be many things, but I don’t think they are that stupid or that self-destructive.

You do realize Crimea is more than a thousand miles from Greece? This does sound like another crazy conspiracy thingy. And none of that changes the fact Greece is a NATO state and Turkey still controls the Bosporus which Russian ships would need to transverse if they wanted to get ships to Greece.
How much Russia oil has been delivered to China from that deal with China? The Russian ruble has recovered some from when it bottomed with oil prices last December, but it remains significantly off from where it was in 2013 before Putin invaded Ukraine. But that has more to do with oil prices than anything to do with gold. Russia’s economy is tied to oil, not gold.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=2Y

 

An update on the Russian economy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...USKBN0OV1HK20150615?virtualBrandChannel=11563

 

* If not backed by gold (not possible) or some other government (Russia?) that new currency may need to be only "electronic" as if paper, it may have negative seigniorage on the smallest bills. (I.e. paper and printing of it costs than the bills are worth.) Greece does have things to offer Russia - mainly ports on the Mediterranean - A big plum for increasing the Russian geo-political power and convenient for the current Egyptian "tilt to Russia." The revenue to Egypt from tankers going thru Suzie Canal is significant fraction of the total, now that few tourists come to Egypt. So I doubt Russia could replace it for long. But just the threat of cutting off that energy line would make the Russian pipe-line cut off even more of a problem for EU this winter.

* Paying all government employees and pensions in new pritnted (or electronic) currency will be a help to Greece in two way:
(1) High seigniorage profits than are not now enjoyed.
(2) Depreciating currency will help boost exports and if order prevails, tourist influx and spending in Greece.

 

Yeah agree it is far-fetched to think Russia would annex Greece, but Merkel for one is worried that if Greece were chucked out of the EU they might be wooed by Russia in the hope of obtaining precisely the advantages Billy T talks about. Tsipras is going to Moscow - again - shortly, it seems. I suspect this is all bluff, trying to scare the EU into thinking he's making contingency plans for an alliance with Russia. Surely, even being on the Left, he must realise that making friends with Russia is like trying to make friends with a crocodile. But it is a worry, for all that - he might be stupid enough to try it.

 

It let Russia "snatch up" Crimea didn't it? Plus Russia shot down a passenger airliner and nothing was done about that either.

 

Well if Merkel is concerned about a potential Greek-Russian alliance she has funny way of showing it. Plans are being drafted for a Greek exit from the Euro and Germany is the main obstacle to the relief Greece seeks. On the other hand, Greek banks are making no plans to exit the Euro. If Greek government was serious about leaving the Euro and going it alone, one would expect at least some planning on their part. In a few weeks, if no deal if found and Greece is kicked out of the Euro, and Greek banks loose the ability to print Euros, Greek banks will face liquidity crisis. If Greece wants to leave the Euro, they need a plan, a plan they do not yet have.

Two, Greece's economy is heavily dependent on its fellow EU countries, and Greece is primarily a service economy and heavily dependent on shipping and tourism. A Russian alliance would do nothing for either, nor would it solve Greece's financial problems. Greece has become a welfare state. Until now, Putin has not spent much of his foreign currency reserves on his saber rattling. Sending a few aged bombers around the world or deploying hardware already in his inventory has not cost him much if any of his foreign currency. Subsidizing the Greek state is an entirely different animal. Subsidizing Greece with Russia's dwindling foreign currency reserves isn't a smart move for Mother Russia and it will not solve Greece's long term economic problems. Greece has some very serious structural problems which will not go away, even if Russia decides to subsidize the Greek state with its foreign currency reserves. It will just deplete Russia's limited foreign currency reserves.

Putin is financially ill equipped to take on the Greek welfare state because it would over tax Russia's limited foreign currency reserves. In fact, over stretching Putin's limited foreign currency reserves could be a good thing for the West. It would exacerbate Russia's domestic economic woes, but it would make Russians fell good about themselves for a time. It would be Soviet Union 2.0 which it seems Putin is hell bent on recreating. If Greece wants to turn itself in to a corrupt Russian client state and toxic dump, so be it. But I think, though I may be wrong, Greeks are a little more intelligent than that.

And then there is the matter of NATO, Greece is heavily dependent on NATO for its national defense. Violating its NATO obligations would further jeopardize the Greek state. I think Greeks are smarter than that. Greece would be better off going it alone without Russia. If Greece exits the Euro, Greece would be much better off recreating its own currency. But it won't be a "get out of jail free" pass nor will it be better than its current woes.

If Greece defaults and exits the EU, the EU will probably experience a mass exodus of Greeks into the EU which would further drain EU resources. There will be a further run on the Greek banking system as depositors continue to withdraw their euros and stuff them in their mattresses. There will be rampant inflation and continued political instability. No matter what happens in Greece, it will not be pretty.

I do think the odds of a Greek debt default are growing by the day, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greeks exist the Euro in the coming months. But I don't see Russia propping up the Greek state. I think Putin is smarter than that. Putin has done a lot of dumb stuff in recent years for Mother Russia and the Russian people. But on the other hand, Putin has been very astute and deft with respect to maintaining and expanding his control over the Russian state.

 

Well, today's Financial Times has an article that may shed light on the German attitude. Appears Schauble (finance minister) is all for pushing Greece out, on the basis that they will never comply with EU rules of financial management (hard to disagree actually), while Merkel wants to keep them in for "geopolitical reasons" - which I take to mean in part keeping them away from Russia and in part perhaps fear of total collapse and a "failed state" with civil war if they exit the EU - which the Greek central bank, no less, is warning Tsipras could be the end result if he does not do a deal.

But I agree it makes no sense for Greece to view Russia as any sort of alternative to the EU and NATO. That really would lock in guaranteed long term misery for the people and I'm sure they would chuck Tsipras out if he tried it.

 

Yes, people and countries do do "stupid things" when that is their only alternative; However, Russia will not "annex Greece." Unlike the Crimea, where Russia hosted the near end of WWII Yalta discussion that drew the boundaries and sphere of influence for the countires of central Europe, Greece has NEVER been part of Russia as Crimea was for most of the 1900 to 2000 hundred years.

From Putin's (and most Russians) POV the West did not deliver as promised - Create a neutral buffer zone on Russian's west side in exchange for Kirchhoff's letting Ukraine become part of it, and no longer a USSR / state / territory. West converted Poland, etc. into Russian hostile lands with US weapons on them aimed at Russia. US is now actively considering, placing many more tanks and mobile artillery weapons right on the western Russian border. Some "neutral zone"

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I don’t recall anyone saying Russia will annex Greece. So where does that come from Billy T?

I don’t see how that is even remotely relevant to a discussion on Greece. Who said Greece was once part of Russia? It sounds like a straw man to me.

“The West didn’t deliver as promised”, what does that mean exactly? Only the Soviet’s (i.e. Russians) violated the Yalta Agreement.

Article II (Yalta Agreement)

“The Premier of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the President of the United States of America have consulted with each other in the common interests of the people of their countries and those of liberated Europe. They jointly declare their mutual agreement to concert during the temporary period of instability in liberated Europe the policies of their three Governments in assisting the peoples liberated from the domination of Nazi Germany and the peoples of the former Axis satellite states of Europe to solve by democratic means their pressing political and economic problems.

The establishment of order in Europe and the rebuilding of national economic life must be achieved by processes which will enable the liberated peoples to destroy the last vestiges of Nazism and fascism and to create democratic institutions of their own choice. This is a principle of the Atlantic Charter - the right of all people to choose the form of government under which they will live - the restoration of sovereign rights and self-government to those peoples who have been forcibly deprived to them by the aggressor nations.” http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h2066.html

The West never promised Russia a “neutral” buffer and Eastern Europe was never neutral under Soviet (i.e. Russian) domination. The Soviets (i.e. Russians) failed to institute democracies in the European lands they were supposed to restore. And where is you evidence the “West” converted Poland? Poland and other Baltic states have been accepted into NATO not because the West sought them, but because those countries petitioned NATO for membership. Those countries know firsthand what life was life living under Soviet (i.e. Russian control). They didn’t like it. That is why they ran to the West when given the opportunity to do so. Contrary to your belief, the Yalta Agreement wasn’t a deed to Eastern Europe, it was an agreement to reconstruct those countries and leave them with functional democracies. The US position has always been every country has the right of self-determination. At any rate, none of that has anything to do with Greece.

 

All rather well put.

 

Kristoffer in post 4 said:
"Do you even realize how stupid this sounds? You think Europe, Nato and the US would let Putin snatch up Greece? Wow. "
and in post 11 exchemist agreed with him.
I was only agreeing too and going farther to explain why it will not happen - I.e. is not just improbable as they agreed but with zero probability as Russia has never owned Greece as it did the Ukraine (Crimea included) for many decades.

 

Well not at the end of WWII. The US agreed at Yalta for example that Germany would be divided and have an East Germany, which with Poland, the three Baltic states and some others, were all to be under / in the Soviet "Sphere of Influence" * and so it was for many years. Despite being deep inside the Russian zone, Berlin was also divided, and when the land supply line to the Western western zones of Berlin was blocked, US (and others I think) started the "Berlin Air Lift"

Are you forgetting all these facts? (Well you do remember some as you mention that the Baltic states did not like living under Russian control.)

* I.e. have puppet governments that did as Russia told them to do, until 1956 (?) when the Hungarians tried to break free from Soviet control and watched the Russian tanks and army march in to reassert Russian control.

 

The bottom line here is that contrary to your assertion, there was no agreement the West was to provide Russia with a "neutral buffer zone" and the only party to default in its Yalta commitments was the Soviet Union (i.e. Russia). As previously mentioned, the Yalta agreement charged each Ally with certain redevelopment responsibilities. There is no mention of "sphere of influence" in the Yalta Agreement. Contrary to your assertion the Yalta Agreement didn't give any country property rights or "sphere of influence" rights to any party, much less permanents rights. As per my previous post in which I referenced Article II of the Yalta Agreement, each of the post WWII reconstruction countries were to be free, independent and democratic - something the Soviets (i.e. Russians) failed to do. Instead Russia created puppet states (i.e. client states).

Just what facts am I forgetting Billy T? And what does the Soviet Zone in Berlin or the Soviet blockade of Berlin have to do with this discussion? It just isn't relevant Billy T. It isn't a matter of forgetting, it's a simple matter of relevance. The fact that the Soviets didn't uphold their end of the Yalta Agreement doesn't retroactively change what the Allies agreed to a Yalta. And none of this has anything to do with Greece.

 

Merkel's geopolitical concerns are valid. A Greek exit from the EU would create a failed state on EU's border. And there is no telling what would emerge from that failed state. Lord knows, the world doesn't need another failed state. Greece could become the Greek version of the Weimar Republic. History shows us how well that worked out, and I don't think that point is lost on Merkel. But I think Russian intervention is highly unlikely. Putin needs his foreign cash reserves too much to waste them on Greece.

And Greeks are not the docile Russians to which Putin is accustomed. Greeks take to the streets when they are unhappy. Unlike Russians, Greeks are accustomed to democracy whereas Russians have rarely known democracy.

 

You, in your OP, talked about Putin moving troops into Greece.

And wtf is up with the flip-flop?
In your OP you make it out to be a serious concern. Here, the way I read it, you say it never was a concern?

 

No. not a flip-flop, unless you think US having 1000s of troops in Germany and many other countries means the US has annexed them all.

I.e. Russia could have troops with tanks etc. in Greece just as US has them in Germany and more than 30 other states. - That is not "annexing." Usually called "mutual defense" agreements.