UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Discussion in 'UFOs, Ghosts and Monsters' started by Magical Realist, Oct 10, 2017.

  1. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Yazata:

    The vast majority of UFO sightings can be "solved" fairly quickly. Take sightings of the planet Venus, for example. Astronomers tend to get asked about that a lot. "I was looking up the other night and I saw this really bright blue light in the sky" blah blah blah "What could it have been?". A few questions about the precise location of light light in the sky, the the location of the observer, the direction the observer was looking, and the time of the observation, are often enough to provide a positive ID of the planet Venus with high certainty.

    The most interesting UFO cases are the one that don't have this kind of "obvious" explanation. (It's also worth noting that what is obvious to somebody familiar with astronomy is often not at all obvious to people who are not familiar with stargazing.)

    UFO cases that are very resistant to explanation, despite there being apparently quite a lot of evidence, are, when you think about, more likely to require a complicated explanation than a simple one. We should not be surprised if a full explanation turns out to be multi-faceted in such cases.

    To give you an analogous example, I sometimes watch the TV show Air Crash Investigations. That is partly because I like how it takes you through what is initially a mystery - a plane has crashed - and reveals the evidence and reasoning that leads investigators to an explanation of the disaster. In the case of airliner crashes, it is, of course, vitally important that the reasons for a crash are understood, because that knowledge can and does help prevent future crashes.

    Modern air travel is very safe, in part because of the findings of investigations into crashes and the steps taken to prevent any reccurrence. But we still see crashes.

    What I always find interesting is that, mostly, airliner crashes don't have a single cause. Usually, at the end of an investigation, it turns out that the crash resulted from a confluence of factors. The pilots were tired, and the plane had maintenance issues, and a vital circuit-breaker had been switched off, and the circuit that was switched off happened to also switch off another important warning system in the cockpit, and the plane was delayed and the pilots rushed through some procedures, and the procedures weren't written down clearly in the instruction manual anyway, and the airline company was losing money because of delays so the pilots were under pressure to stay on schedule, and so it goes on.

    So, my question is: why should we expect a puzzling UFO incident to have a single, simple, explanation? If it had such an explanation, it wouldn't be puzzling in the first place.

    Think about that. Is this really "about as good ... as one could possibly hope to have"? Of course it isn't. We could have video footage of what the pilots saw over the ocean where the wave disturbance was, for example.

    As I pointed out previously, I think we need to be careful in assuming there is a single cause of the multiple observations by different witnesses in this particular case. That might seem like a reasonable assumption, and I think it's a reasonable starting assumption for an investigation. But if such an assumption does not lead to a positive identification, then we should be willing to look further afield.

    It's like in the air crash situation. It looks like pilot error - that they flew the plane into the ground on takeoff. Buy why would they do that? What factors led to that outcome? We shouldn't stop at the point of blaming it on "pilot error", because something important might have led to the pilots making an excusable error in the first place, and other pilots could make the same error in future if we don't get to the bottom of it.

    Occam's razor, in the end, is just a rule of thumb. It doesn't say that the simplest explanation must be true. It only says that if two explanations have equal explanatory power, then we should prefer the simpler one.

    It also raises the question as to what is a simple explanation, anyway. Is it really a simple explanation to say the tic tac was an alien spaceship? That explanation comes with a whole lot of complicated baggage. Where did the aliens come from? What were they doing? Why were they doing it? How did they do it?

    I agree it is puzzling, and moderately interesting. (If I didn't think that, I wouldn't be commenting on it.) I similarly don't have an explanation at this time.

    My main point here is that nobody here has presented any "compelling" evidence that this was aliens, or even any kind of "craft".

    From my point of view, the problem here is not that people claim to have seen something unusual. The problem is that enthusiasts like Magical Realist take that and turn it into a full-blown alien encounter, based on nothing.
     
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  3. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Magical Realist:

    You didn't answer my question. Aren't you interested in what the UFOs actually is?

    Yes. And so...?

    No investigation has taken place at that point to look for any explanation, let alone a prosaic one. We'd have to wait for the investigation to conclude that it's a UFO. Right? Look at Hynek's definition again.

    You shouldn't believe either of them. You should investigate all aspects of the case and come to a conclusion based on all the evidence. This isn't a trust exercise.

    Ok. So, suppose we conclude those ones are UFOs. What then? Are you done at that point?

    How can they be sure they have ruled out every possible mundane explanation?

    What do you mean by "authentic"?

    Thanks. I did. See my replies in that thread.
     
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  5. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    UFOs can be alien spaceships. We just don't know that yet. That's why we call them ufos.

    No..by eliminating the mundane and knowing it is not a familiar object, you have not thereby identified it. It is still a mystery, a ufo, and a non-mundane one at that.

    Not every ufo is necessarily a craft. Witness the foo fighters of WWII, But going by the many sightings of occupants seen exiting ufos and windows seen on the side of ufos, it's probably safe to say many are craft of some sort. See the Lonnie Zamora case previously posted at #1678.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2018
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  7. Gawdzilla Sama Valued Senior Member

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    "probably safe to say", i.e., confirmation bias in action.
     
  8. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    No..if there remains no mundane explanation, then we are justified in positing a non-mundane explanation. I'm not going suspend explanation in the hopes that one day in the future a new mundane explanation will be found, especially when the details of the ufo itself lead us beyond anything we currently know of.



    No..I have the total right to speculate on what ufos are without evidence just as you speculate that they are the planet Venus or a weather balloon or a breaching whale without evidence. That's my privilege as one who has studied this phenomenon for many years now. I still don't know what the ufos are, but I can offer speculative explanations just like you do.

    At which point they cease to be ufos.

    Metallic in appearance: silver or gray and reflective of light.

    And your willingness to write off our overwhelmingly reliable human perception, which enables us to survive everyday, reveals your own underlying agenda to not believe in ufos. Lead by example..

    Venus isn't a ufo. I thought you knew that.

    No it isn't. Many ufos show themselves to be some sort of structured craft with occupants. This is just a matter of examining the many cases of them showing those characteristics, like the Lonnie Zamora case or the Zimbabwe schoolchildren case.

    http://www.ufoevidence.org/Cases/CaseView.asp?section=Encounter

    Many ufos are seen hovering in place. See the Chicago O'Hare disc of 2006 and many other cases.

    At which point we have a real ufo on our hands.

    Nothing's at stake. I just follow the evidence and reach the natural conclusion. Just as I do with the existence of black holes, or ball lightning. There's no "need" for ufos to exist. I just find that they do exist, and go from there. Which makes for a really complicated and uncertain reality!

    Yeah.. this is your faith in scientism again and your belief that you can magically reach the truth if you perform your thinking critically enough. Except that you don't and only twist the evidence to fit your preconclusion that all ufos are really just ifos.

    I know compelling when I see it. And any eyewitness account of a ufo is always compelling.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2018
  9. Gawdzilla Sama Valued Senior Member

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    You know many of these people personally?
     
  10. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Magical Realist:

    It's all well and good to say "if there remains no mundane explanation", but that means you've somehow ruled out every possible mundane explanation. The bottom line is: a mystery is a mystery, until it's solved. You can't just assume. If there's not enough evidence to get a positive ID as an alien spaceship, or a mundane aircraft/sighting of the planet Venus, the what you're left with is a mystery.

    I'm very happy, of course, to look at any actual evidence that leads us "beyond anything we currently know". I'm aware of no such evidence at this time.

    Sure, but I try to make sure that my speculations (a) are supported by the evidence, and (b) are consistent with what is already known about the world. You're the one who tends to introduce little green men without sufficient evidence. If those little green men actually exist, then they sure are elusive and doing a great job at hiding from us, most of the time.

    That's actually fine, but keep in mind that extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. The problem with even the most puzzling UFO cases is that the evidence for little green men is so underwhelming.

    Ah. Metallic in appearance. You see how important it is to be careful about language? We can't jump from "that looks like metal" to "that's metal", without actual evidence, especially if it's apparently doing things that metal doesn't ordinarily do.

    It doesn't seem to matter how often I point out that our human perception is not "overwhelmingly reliable" in any sense, and particularly when it is trying to interpret the unfamiliar. You still like to pretend you're a walking video recorder.

    Don't take my word for it. Do some research for change.

    To many people, it is a UFO, at least until a helpful expert identifies it for the confused eyewitness whom you assert has flawless perception, and whom therefore really ought to be able to identify any mundane object in the sky instantly.

    Really? Why in 70 years has there not been so much as a single good photo of any of these occupants in their structured craft, then?

    You mean there are many reports of unidentified things staying still in the sky. Like the planet Venus, for instance.

    Well, it's nice to hear that you don't come into this with any bias. LOL.

    By "twist the evidence" here, I assume you mean "propose sensible explanations that fit the known facts".

    Scientism, if that was my faith, could hardly provide me with a magical way to reach the truth. That would be a contradiction in terms, wouldn't it?

    As for critical thinking, it is basic method for getting closer to the truth. No magic needed. You ought to try it some time.

    You've never seen anything about UFOs that you don't find compelling - except plausible explanations based on the evidence, of course.

    To you, certainly. But you don't know any better.
     
  11. sideshowbob Sorry, wrong number. Valued Senior Member

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    It isn't. I wish they did exist.

    I guess you're more easily compelled than I am. Take the Roswell incident for example. I was surprised at how utterly baseless the woo-claims are.
     
  12. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes...we can rule out every mundane explanation. There's not really that many. And once those are ruled out we can posit non-mundane explanations.

    That's why we call it a ufo. But even as a mystery, it has certain features in common with other ufos. It is disc shaped or ovoid shaped, it appears metallic or glows at night, it hovers silently and speeds off, and even vanishes to reappear in another part of the sky. So it's one of those things that have been seen thousands of times and recorded on cameras and film.

    Yes you are. I have already cited numerous cases of ufos being disc shaped or tic tac shaped and being able to fly at tremendous speeds. That's not any technology we presently have. It points us towards the non-mundane---of a technology beyond anything humans have attained.

    No you don't. Take the meteor you claim happened that night in Ravenna county. If a meteor like that actually exploded, being described by the officer as bright as the noonday sun, it would have been reported the next day in papers all over that area. And yet it wasn't. The evidence, or rather the lack of it, speaks against your speculation.

    No I don't. I rarely discuss the actual pilots of the ufos. I keep the issue on the ufos themselves and their observed attributes and behavior.

    Right...like a flock of seagulls and a breaching whale and a radar glitch all being mistaken by multiple eyewitnesses for the same ufo. That's pretty extraordinary. And you never offer any evidence for these coincidences.

    Yeah...we can jump from metallic appearance to metal. We do it all the time in everyday life. Metallic appearing objects are usually made of metal. It's a fact of our experience.

    Human perception can tell when something is unfamiliar and strange in our experience. And it does this on a daily basis. If perception were as unreliable as you make it out to be, we'd have gone extinct as a species ages ago.

    Something doesn't have to be flawless to be very reliable. Cars aren't infallible, yet we rely on them all the time.

    Cuz people over the past 70 years didn't walk around with cameras all day. What we DO have are hundreds of accounts of ufos associated with humanoid occupants being seen exiting and entering the craft. This is a compelling record as to the nature of ufos.

    No...there are many reports of discs hovering in place and then taking off immediately at high speeds. The Chicago O'Hare incident for instance.


    You edit the eyewitness account to fit your conclusion that it was mundane object. You say one detail they perceived correctly, while another detail that contradicts your thesis is a false memory or a mistake. That's not sensible. That's confirmation bias.

    That's what you call the scientific method. This sort of magical oracle scientists allegedly use to reach the truth. Only real scientists don't use that.

    Right..because ufos existing tells us something about the world we live in, and that we are not alone in this reality. That's a compelling implication in it's own right.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2018
  13. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Magical Realist:

    I think we've gone about as far as we can go discussing this in the abstract. It is clear to me that you're hopelessly biased about assuming that everything that somebody can't immediately identify is an alien spaceship, or equivalent.

    I've never yet seen you make an effort to do that, properly. But who knows? Maybe you'll turn over a new leaf.

    How have you identified that any UFO represents any kind of "technology"? Technology implies an intelligence to create it, but you tell us you don't assume that.

    As for the "tremendous speeds", most of the time that assessment is based on a subjective human judgment.

    I think I discussed this in the relevant thread. Besides, I'm not wedded to the idea that that officer saw a meteor at that time. It's just one suggestion that might explain what he reported. Nobody said anything about any explosion, by the way.

    Only there weren't many eyewitnesses who reported the water disturbance. I'm only aware of one, maybe two. Similarly for the radar glitch.

    There's no new evidence to be had. Whatever caused the water disturbance is long gone. We can only work with what we have.

    Make assumptions without evidence? Yes, we do that all the time in everyday life. It's called guessing. But here, we're talking about an extraordinary event, so we need to be a lot more careful and rigorous.

    Don't take my word for it. Do some research. You can use google, can't you?

    It is interesting that you bring this up. In the past 10 years or so, when phone cameras and the like have been ubiquitous, has there been even a single report of humanoid occupants being seen entering or exiting a "craft"? If not, why not? And if so, why no photos?

    Here's my theory: making up a story about having an alien space ship land in your back yard, and little green men coming out, is implausible these days, because the first question you'll be asked is "Where are the photos?" And so, people have stopped making up those kinds of stories. The excuse that you forgot to take the photo, or that your camera wasn't nearby at the time, looks pretty weak when you're talking about First Contact.

    But even in the olden days, when people didn't walk around with cameras all day, surely we'd expect at least one alien abductee to have had a camera and snapped off a few shots. Wouldn't we? So where are they?

    One tries to find the simplest explanation that fits all the facts, knowing that human perception and memory are fallible. That's quite sensible.

    Having said that, of course, the hypothesis is much stronger in cases where there is actual evidence that the witness's perception was flawed, which there often is. A good example is the Ravenna case in which the officers chasing the UFO reported seeing the moon, but not the very bright planet Venus that was right near it, while at the same time they reported seeing the UFO at the exact place where Venus was located. To me, that is strong evidence that what they thought was a UFO was, in reality, Venus. But you dismiss this sensible conclusion in spite of the strong evidence for it. Why? Because you think human perception is perfect and nobody could ever make that kind of mistake. And because you so want it to be little men. That's what it always comes down to in the end with you.

    Talk of the scientific method is, of course, misleading, because the term "scientific method" is really a sort of shorthand for a whole range of attitudes and methodologies. The scientific method isn't a step-by-step recipe, but it does tend to have certain features. It's sometimes called the hypothetico-deductive method. You form a hypothesis, you test it against evidence, you look at the results and modify or refine the hypothesis. This isn't magic, and it is what scientists do. It has proven to be phenomenally successful in helping us to reach certain truths, as you will be aware. Talking to ghosts or aliens, in contrast, has never provided us with any new insights, as far as I'm aware.

    What do you mean "we are not alone"? Are you suggesting that there is extraterrestrial intelligent life? Where's the evidence for that?

    Or perhaps you're talking about non-human spirits, or something. You haven't provided any evidence for anything like that, either.
     
  14. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Right..because the more I explain and answer your questions the more you find things to not understand and ask more questions about. That's not conversation. It's some kind of weird disingenous game of one upmanship. I think I've made my points abundantly clear. I'm tired of repeating things that you only deny and quibble over. And I'm not about to play your therapeutic whipping boy again. May the force be with ye,..
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018
  15. Michael 345 New year. PRESENT is 72 years oldl Valued Senior Member

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    Do you hear that all readers of this thread?

    It's the sound of one hand clapping and counting up a WINNING

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  16. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    It's funny to see a claim that we have "ruled out every mundane explanation", when there are numerous mundane explanations that the average civilian simply isn't even privy to; as though we can, somehow, know for certain, that we A) know every mundane explanation B) have the knowledge to test each one C) have (access to) the evidence to test each one D) have the equipment and resources to test each one and E) have the time to test each and every one.

    I can say, with absolute 100% certainty, even though I've never met him, that Magical Realist lacks, at the absolute least, categories A, C, and D.

    And all this is before we even contemplate the possibilities of other nations acting maliciously - spoofing radar contacts, launching decoys and drones, targeting networked systems and computers, etc... lets face it, when you throw the potential for cyber warfare into the mix (because what better way to undermine the public's support and faith in their government then by convincing them their government is covering up some massive conspiracy and/or discovery?) things become a LOT more complicated.

    So, no... we have not ruled out every mundane explanation - for the simple fact that we can't even be certain we know every mundane explanation.
     
  17. Gawdzilla Sama Valued Senior Member

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    Just another bald assertion in a long string of bald assertions.
     
  18. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    Don Berliner, UFO researcher, author, FUFOR (Fund for UFO Research), “Is There a Case for UFO’s?”

    http://www.ufoevidence.org/NewSite/Papers/UFOQuotes.htm


    ”If every UFO report could be convincingly credited to some conventional astronomical or atmospheric phenomenon, there would be no UFO mystery. It is precisely because so many UFO reports cannot logically be blamed on stars, planets, satellites, airplanes, balloons, etc., that a UFO mystery has existed since at least the mid-1940s.


    The most convincing UFO reports were produced in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s by airline pilots, military pilots and ex-military pilots. These men had the training and the experience to be able to distinguish between normal sky sights and highly abnormal sights. They knew what airplanes looked like, and what meteors looked like, having seen them many times. Their visual observations were frequently supported by radar data which showed essentially the same thing. They were therefore able, on many occasions, to methodically eliminate conventional phenomena from consideration when trying to identify UFOs.


    In those same decades, most UFO sightings were made in the daytime and frequently at close range, when shapes and surface features could be distinguished, thus making positive identification of normal sights easier and the descriptions of unusual sights more detailed. When all normal explanations had been eliminated, the witnesses could concentrate on those aspects of the experience which were most abnormal.


    These abnormal aspects included the shapes of UFOs and their behavior. Most of the UFOs seen in the daytime were said to have had simple geometric shapes--discs, ovals, spheres, cylinders--and surfaces that looked like metal. Such shapes are not only nonexistent among known aircraft, but contrary to all known theories of flight, in most cases offering control and performance disadvantages rather than advantages.


    Even more unusual were the specifics of their flight performance: silent hovering, silent high-speed flight, extreme acceleration, supersonic flight at low altitude without sonic booms, and violent, very high-g maneuvers. The actions of many UFOs have suggested that they fly independently of the air and even of the force of gravity. The accomplishment of these maneuvers has been among the major goals of the world's aerospace industry for decades.

    On the basis of their appearance, behavior and frequent well-kept, tight formation flights, we must face the possibility that some UFOs may be manufactured, high-tech vehicles….


    At first glance, the idea that some UFOs may be vehicles from outside the Earth seems utterly preposterous, the baseless result of wishful thinking by highly unscientific minds.


    When authoritative reports of radical-design craft having spectacular performance are viewed in the light of a stream of astrobiological discoveries, the possibility that some UFOs are alien does not seem quite so farfetched. Serious-minded scientists in astronomy and other disciplines estimate there could be billions of planets in the universe, and millions that could harbor life. If even a few of those planets were occupied by technological civilizations, their ability (if not desire) to explore other worlds, such as ours, must be a possibility.


    Hundreds of thousands of UFO sightings have been made by persons in all walks of life, in all parts of the world. Tens of thousands of UFO reports have been made to governmental and private agencies in the past 55+ years. Thousands of these reports have withstood careful scrutiny and appear to represent real objects having a novel nature.


    Patterns of these UFOs' appearance and behavior suggest a limited range of sizes and shapes of unidentified craft, despite the often-desperate efforts on the part of the American and other governments to discount them as nothing more substantial than mistakes made by naïve individuals. Their performance, observed repeatedly by expert witnesses, remains as far off the scale today as it was in the 1940s.


    If even one of these unidentified UFOs turns out to be an alien craft, the impact on all aspects of our nation's culture--economic, political, personal--will be limited only by what is learned from an open, serious, objective study of the subject.”
     
  19. Gawdzilla Sama Valued Senior Member

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    How many of them can't be explained by mundane physical phenomena because they just weren't there? The world wonders.
     
  20. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

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    The eyewitnesses were there..
     
  21. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    And those eyewitnesses had access to radar, ladar, and magnetometric scanners available to them, had an astronomy background to rule out potential mundane light-sources, have access to military deployment records of all major nations, and are all sober, I'm sure.
     
  22. Gawdzilla Sama Valued Senior Member

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    And once again, why do you believe they saw what they claimed they saw?
     
  23. Gawdzilla Sama Valued Senior Member

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    YEHAWWWWWWW!!!!!!
     

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