Implications of OPEC trading in Euros

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by hypewaders, Apr 10, 2004.

  1. kmguru Staff Member

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    With oil prices going up and up, how is Europe doing? I think the first few countries to have trouble is the most advanced countries like Germany, France and UK...as prices of everything go up.
     
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  3. Stryder Keeper of "good" ideas. Valued Senior Member

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    Well the prices are usually dependant on the Refining Plants. Simply if the US prices rise, The US starts purchasing abroad at cheaper prices, which of course increases demand, which decreases supply, which in turn increases prices.

    Simply put it's all a giant mathematical vector that can very easily be avoided, however such companies like profit therefore they don't like to avoid such problems.
     
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  5. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    "however such companies like profit therefore they don't like to avoid such problems."

    But these problems include losing goodwill. The petroleum industry is becoming unpopular, because they are not perceived as taking good care of their customers. That's just fundamentally bad business, and doesn't make rational sense.

    What makes rational sense is that there is an incipient crisis of supply that petroleum cartels fear and anticipate (but will not publicly discuss) and they are presently making a panicked grab for all they can while they can.
     
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  7. kmguru Staff Member

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    Oil and Gas market is a controlled market. There is no such thing as supply and demand. That only works in a free market economy. We know, because in the course of our business, we came across two suppliers who are willing to sell us diesel at lower than market price as they are small time producers who have signed long term contract with wholesellers before the oil price went up. Well, we contacted a few mid size buyers and they said - no deal, they will get into troble with their primary suppliers.
     
  8. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    "Oil and Gas market is a controlled market"

    True, but without control of supply, there is no control. Supply is slipping out of the control of corporations like Exxon-Mobil, and potentially beyond the control of cartels like OPEC if there comes a sea change- For example, mideast and S. American alliance shifts, leading to Euro trading, Yuan trading.
     
  9. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    Bro Can U Spare a Dime / See Change?

    You should, because it is accelerating now.
     
  10. kmguru Staff Member

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    I agree. But it will not be apparent till 2008. There comes a time when a single straw will break the camel's back. But a child, a lawyer or a politician would not know that - because they do not have the right education to understand the science behind it.

    In the world of very large compressors that compress gas to send it in the pipeline at high pressure, if the flow drops to below a certain level, then the compressor goes on a surge condition that can break appart these monster machines. That is called the region of instability. We are getting there....
     
  11. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    But the singularity (high-noon) of destructive resonance is unknown- Just to make it interesting.
     
  12. kmguru Staff Member

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    It can be known, if one has the time to model the scenario with say a thousand key parameters that interact with each other. A neural net may be the right tool for such a model. However to get the exact point (your high noon) one has to understand the psychological aspects of humans and add the neuro-economic model which is difficult to do.
     
  13. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    But like any disaster, at least we'll all see it in the instant that it first shockingly disrupts our personal and common plans, hopes, lives, etc. Somehow that's not such comforting thinking... which is what I increasingly find myself groping for when I think on the future of my country.
     
  14. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    You are "blowing smoke" "slinging jargon" etc. I began to recognize this when you claimed to be advising the Chinese, had the solution to the controlled fusion problem, were negotiating with the oil majors, etc.

    In this case you are recommending "neural networks" and they can do amazing things, BUT they are not programed. Instead they are provided with a large "training set" to learn on (and of course the "answers" to each of the training set problems.) The larger the parameter space (thousands you said) the larger your training set must be. I am not an expert on neural nets, but if the net is to cope with 1000 potentially different and independent parameters, then probably a minimum of 1,000,000 different examples of the parameter sets with the "out come" of each are required for training up the neural net to a reasonable performance level on a new input set of parameters (not one of the training sets) for the net to be reasonably good at predicting the "out come" for that set of parameter inputs it was not trained on.

    The basic nonsense and ignorance in your suggestion, your "smoke blowing" in this case, is the fact that the Earth and humans living on it have never been thru this global energy crisis type of situation before. You do not have a 1,000,000 example cases of known input parameter sets with associated known out comes to train the neural network on. You do not even have one! Neural networks are totally impossible to apply to this unique problem - nothing to train them on.

    Go back to saving the world by perfecting a next generation fusion reactor this weekend or jet off to India to help them with their nuclear reactor problems. I am not impressed by your many claims of expertise. I only see smoke.
     
  15. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    "PetroEuro" is being uttered again (only by Iran and Venezuela, we are told) and I think it's increasingly in a context I tried to touch on earlier in this thread:

    "Is the Dollar's hegemony not founded in international goodwill? Is the Dollar not a leading "brand" of money, facing new competition? And is monetary brand-loyalty not tied to geopolitics?"

    Along these lines, I'm concerned that the most staunch OPEC defenders of PetroDollars (mot notably the Sa'ud dynasty) may be going further and further out on a perilous political limb over this. Kuwait and the Emirates are already slipping out of Dollar orbit. Maybe it's not just cold economics, but also political self-preservation, as identification with the USA is smelling more and more like old fish in Mideast perceptions.

    Major US media desperately plays this issue down, but it stills seems one of the largest and wobblyest elephants in the room.
     
  16. S.A.M. uniquely dreadful Valued Senior Member

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    Don't the Sauds have a lot of investments in dollars? They won't do anything until they've covered their asses.
     
  17. kmguru Staff Member

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    The pressure on Dollar really comes from the Germans who have not forgotten the WWII and their dream of the Master of Europe. If you can not win via Sword, win via the Money.
     
  18. S.A.M. uniquely dreadful Valued Senior Member

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    Whats the role of the Germans? I would have thought the Japanese to be a more likely candidate, Asians are more entrenched with notions of honor and revenge.
     
  19. kmguru Staff Member

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    The euro's origins lay in the Maastricht Treaty (1991), an agreement among the then 12 member countries of the European Community (now the European Union)—United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, The Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Luxembourg—that included the creation of an economic and monetary union (EMU).

    Behind the scence, it is the Germans who pushed it, not the United Kingdom. UK is fine with their Pound and well connected with USA. They would not do anything to undermine Dollars or USA.
     
  20. S.A.M. uniquely dreadful Valued Senior Member

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    Sounds more like common business sense, the Germans are always pragmatic about financial matters and possibly saw no reason why they should not promote a currency that would give them something for nothing.

    After all, their economy was in greater need of assistance, what with war debts and recompense, not to mention consolidation of East and West Germany.
     
  21. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    I can understand your problem. You want to be the "all knowing" person in this forum. I have no problem with that. But accusing someone you do not know as "blowing smoke" just shows your ignorance. Rather than thinking in the negative terms, why not think all the statements are true and ask questions for things you do not understand?

    I was in China during the early 80's on behalf of a large US multinational. At the time the Chinese just opening up their market. It was not difficult to advise them as that was what they asked for. What is so impossible about that? May be for the Brazillian companies?

    As to controlled fusion, I happen to be a part of the advisory team at University of Utah. Again, in America, we do have the education and technology to think ahead.

    Again, I worked for Exxon, have done projects for Chevron, Phillips66, Amoco, because I am an engineer. What is wrong with that...it is not as if it is rocket science! And I have done rocket science for NASA. Since the inception of Sciforum, I have been consistent in what my avatar is and is not. If you can only read!

    Attacking my avatar in this respect is not only bad manners but plain stupidity.


    I do not really want to write a book here. If you would have read most of my posts, you would know that I suggested for members to read both "A new kind of science" and "On Intelligence". If you would have read at least those two books, you would deduce how to design a proper neural network. It is not really that difficult.

    This would not be your classic neural net. The word is used liberally since using the word "Artifical Intelligence" will create the vision of robots going haywire. I really do not want to insult your intelligence, but if you have done any programming in Prolog in the past, and understand how the brain works - even the basics, you will understand. And if not, ask questions rather than blaming others for your lack of understanding. It is hard to teach old dogs new tricks, perhaps because the neural networks are fixed/satic by your present age?

    In a forum like this, in case you have no idea how to interact, the Avatar can be a separate entity from self with its own claims of expetise. The expertise can be easily vetted by other experts in those fields. An avatar can manifest multiple expertise, simply because, behind a single avatar there can be multiple persons that do have those expertise. My avatar can be a doctor and an engineer at the same time, because behind that avatar there can be my brother taking part who is a doctor. and so on....

    If you do not know that, you are behind...way behind!
     
  22. hypewaders Save Changes Registered Senior Member

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    12,061
    Mideast Dollar divestment is on the agenda for discussion at the Doha Gulf Cooperation Council Summit next month. Saudi financiers seem to hold controlling shares in the US Dollar and economy. US leadership will have limited options in forestalling a collapse if they are double-crossed by them. The Saudi regime could be better off to make a break for it now, even while their public signals are saying the opposite.
     
  23. S.A.M. uniquely dreadful Valued Senior Member

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    I can't imagine the US would just sit back if they did revalue their currency.
     

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