If Trump wins. Or loses

Discussion in 'World Events' started by rcscwc, Aug 25, 2016.

  1. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Does he have to "win" the election to do that?

    Actual question.
     
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  3. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Wiki has a different take on the subject:
    In 1995, CDL Hotels International and Saudi prince Al-Waleed bin Talal purchased a controlling stake in the Plaza in a deal that valued it at $325 million ...
    And
    Trump ain't the first to lose money on that hotel;
    ..........................
    THe federal gvmt takes in about 3.3 trillion per year and owes 20 trillion.
    The federal reserve has helped by keeping the interest rates low. If the government had to sell treasuries at 10%, then 2/3 of their income would go for debt servicing.

    Maybe, we are already bankrupt if the rates change?
    Even with low interest rates, we borrow more every year. The current deficit is estimated to be 616 billion.

    Congress and the president have little incentive to balance the budget or pay off the debt.

    How long can such spendthrift ways continue?
     
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  5. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Except, as has been repeatedly pointed out the government doesn't own 20 trillion dollars. It actually owes about 11 trillion dollars. Additionally, if the government sold treasuries offering a 10% interest rate,the bonds would sell at auction for a huge premium, meaning they would be worth much more than face value. Additionally, the interest rates on treasuries (TIPS excluded) don't change. So if interest rates would increase to 10% the interest rates the government pays on existing debt would not change and there is no reason anyone should expect interest rates to hit 10%.

    If Congress and the president have little interest in balancing the budget then why did the do so during the Clinton administration? Government spending should never be profligate. There are times when government should deficit spend and there are times when it shouldn't deficit spend and pay down its debts. The spending we saw under the Baby Bush administration was profligate. The spending we have seen under the Obama administration has not been profligate. But it has been too restrained.
     
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  7. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Joe
    I have lived through times when bond yields went as high as 16%.(maybe higher)
    And, I held us savings bonds at 7 1/2%. Now, the interest on treasuries is less than the official inflation numbers---------------a penny saved is 1/10 of a penny lost.

    You know about spending OPM ?
     
  8. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,882
    And so have I, but that doesn't change a thing. Those times were very different from today. That's one of the major problems affecting the Republican Party. They keep thinking the problems we face to day are those we faced during the 70's and 80's. They aren't. Things have changed. Instead of oil embargoes we have a oil glut. We don't have double digit inflation as we did then when the Fed monetized the oil embargoes in order mitigate their deflationary impacts on the economy. This is not then. This is very different. I don't foresee another Arab oil embargo.

    Do you have a point?
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
  9. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  10. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,882
    And?
     
  11. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,081
    And federal debt is now over 6x receipts/earnings, with constant borrowing.

    I would not buy stock in a company whose debt to earnings ratio were 6:1 (but then again, I'm fiscally conservative.)
    Today’s Federal Debt is $19,481,571,141,221.67.
    from:
    http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/
     
  12. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,882
    No, it's about 3x receipts, but how is that metric even relevant? It isn't. That's why it's not used.

    Well I guess you won't be buying any stock in banks or buying any growth stocks. It's a meaningless metric. The usual metric to measure how levered or indebted a business is, is the debt to equity ratio, that's how leverage is usually measured in the business community. Add to that the fact the government isn't a business. Businesses don't have the responsibilities of a government nor does it have the abilities of government. Businesses can't print money for example. Governments can make laws. Businesses can't. It's always wrong to compare a business to government. They are two very different entities.

    PS:
    One of my first jobs out of college was to examine the books of companies and establish credit lines for them. So I do have some experience in this regard.
     
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  13. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    5,081
    You're right
    Based on growth expectations
    ....................
    OK I have actually invested in companies with higher ratios---------
    and hold one with 20b revenue and 9b debt, with pe 22 and pb 3
    (mostly for the dividend yield of 3%)(steady income with principle reasonably safe--and steady gains-even better when spin offs are included)
     
  14. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    26,316
    Until white men aged 30 - 65 learn not to vote for people like Reagan, W, and the current batch of Republican Congressmen, or the economy crashes again and can't be bailed out this time.

    Maybe Trump is the wakeup call?
     
  15. Dr_Toad It's green! Valued Senior Member

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    God. I picture an alarm clock with a bouffant going off, screaming, "Uuuge!" or, "Only Rosie O'Donnell."

    Let me go back to my nightmares...

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    Edit: I have to admit that the Rosie O'Donnell comment was the best thing he's ever said. Staged or not, it was priceless.
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
  16. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    As an outsider watching the US pre-election debacle, and speaking to many friends of mine both left and right of the political spectrum, no one has yet said anything complimentary about Trump.
    He is viewed as somewhat of a clown, a loud mouthed brash, apparently devious lying clown, and a dangerous clown to boot.
    I certainly hope that America [USA] as the recognised leader of the free world, will tell this dangerous clown exactly what they think of him when the time comes.
     
  17. Dr_Toad It's green! Valued Senior Member

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    Don't forget the Hillabeast, who would almost certainly start another war or two. Or three, just to pay off her oil-fat banker buddies.

    I don't know if we have anyone to vote for this time. I'm throwing my vote at Gary Johnson, but I might as well just piss into the wind...
     
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    I agree, and I don't think America has gone that berserk. Remember, Trump represents a minority party. I doubt he will be elected. I think most Americans share your opinions about The Donald.
     
  19. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    How does any of that make the least bit of sense? It doesn't. I get it, it's the red meat nonsense Republicans so love. But not only is it not rooted in reality, it doesn't make any kind of sense.
     
  20. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  21. Dr_Toad It's green! Valued Senior Member

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    It probably doesn't, any more than any of the other (pardon me for this) trumped-up politicrap we've had to endure for years now. I'm as disgusted with "the election cycle" as I am the "news cycle".

    I was a yellow-dog democrat for many years: That hope has proven vain.

    I'm not a republican either, just disgusted.

    @sculptor: That lead, and food are two of the things the Chinese and I agree on. Pork stir-fry, anyone?
     
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  22. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    anytime
     
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  23. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    She would also be the single most hated woman in America - depending on when you time the poll (for a couple weeks after Jane Fonda takes a tour of the enemy du jour's capital, the Dixie Chicks tell an uncomfortable truth in public, , or Nancy Pelosi demonstrates once again what actual governance via an elected Congress might look like, you may get get aberrant results - but these people have the attention span of fruit flies, and the steady stroking of Hillaryhate from their sugar sources will bring their beaks back to True Wingnut North. https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mh4WmXKT...AMfE/XrNyOVy3hKY/s1600/hypnotized-chicken.jpg )

    btw: Here's a quote from the link:
    Just speculating here, but if I put money on that being bullshit - a deception of some kind, mistranslation, a misrepresentation, a flat out lie, something like that - what odds would I get? Because if they are anything close to even, my money's ready.

    If you listen to the interview, I. S. Fish describes the source of the quote quite differently - it isn't from him.

    Here's what Mr. Fish thinks of Trump and China: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/12/a-vote-for-trump-is-a-vote-for-china/
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016

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