How to rate predictions

Discussion in 'Physics & Math' started by Jennifer Murphy, Jan 9, 2016.

  1. Jennifer Murphy Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    239
    What's a good way to rate or compare different predictions for the same event?

    Suppose I have predictions from 3 sources for the 4 NFL playoff games this weekend. After the games are over and I know who won, what's a good formula for rating each of these sources on the accuracy of the predictions?
     
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  3. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,051
    Percent deviation.
     
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  5. Jennifer Murphy Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    239
    Deviation from what?

    If I understand percent deviation correctly, it's

    percent deviation = (observation - standard)/standard​

    But what is the standard? For that matter, what is the observation?

    Suppose Team A plays Team B. Jack gives A 75% odds. Jill gives them 50% odds. Team A wins the game. What is the percent deviation for Jack and Jill?
     
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.

Share This Page