How low will the Dow Go?

I'm holding out for 3000... is this too low?

 

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4000 is virgin territory.

 

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I am not that pessimestic. I see a strong leader on the horizon. The key issue is confidence. No one has any confidence in the markets or the economy. And George II and company have undermined confidence at about every turn.

Examples:
1) Need to buy up the bad debt instruments...gotta do it now.
2) Changed my mind, not going to do that....going to inject capital.

3) Going to do whatever it takes to bail out the economy.
4) Not going to bail out the auto industry with a bridge loan.

They get you thinking they are going to do something and then they don't.

 

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Bailing out unsuccessful corporations with IOUs doesnt 'do' anything...except shift the problem forward in time.

Why would we expect Obama to be any different?

 

Even if what you say is true. It is not about the auto companies wither they survive or fail. It is about confidence. Maybe Obama will fail, but he has yet to do so. So now we have hope and a little history, not much more.

 

That was my problem with Obama's book...problems arent solved by hoping.

 

he said 'virgin' ... *makes Beavis and Butt-head like laugh*

My problem is just how deep in the hole we are. I mean, deep. Also, I think there is a lot more corporate incompetence than people believe. This is just the tip of the iceberg and I feel we are on the titanic.

 

Well I don't think we are going back to the dark ages. But I could be wrong.

 

Not always. A lot of people "bet" money that certain stocks will go down and somehow they've got some backwards way of making money from that. It's called "Put Options" or something like that.

This may help the market.... who knows?

 

Desperate diseases require desperate remedies.
It can't be allowed to happen.

btw
I hear that Homer Simpson has been day trading.
Dow!

 

At least someone has got some money left.
The bidding on a Beatles White Album is now at £10,000 on ebay.

One sold earlier this year for £5,000, but that was printed number 7.
This one is printed number five. Much better.

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I vote up then down

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Never forget that it is when the pessimism index reaches 100% that it is time to buy.
I voted 7000 and I think we are getting close to that time.
Then, as soon as the first optimist reappears, the market recovery can begin.

 

Citi dropped below 5.

 

Like when a stock reaches zero?

The Japanese market was pessimistic for over a decade...1990-2003.

 

The pessimism index may not even have reached 50%.
Not if Good and/or Old and Loved companies start to fold.

Retailers for example, are protected at the moment because they are at the most profitable part of their yearly cycle, but come February, some well known names could go under.

I don't think that the US will allow the giant car companies to fold, because a loss of 10% of jobs would be too great a blow, but on purely economic terms they might not survive, and not be worth protecting.
Just how many businesses can be protected like this?

People keep on predicting the low point, but with less and less conviction.

What you can predict is that people will regret not buying at the bottom,
but where that is no-one knows.

 

Wow, gotta move the cash!

Lets just say, it hasn't hit the common market yet.

 

here is a "MoneyShow" video interview with Dr. Martin Weiss, who is the first authority I have heard to clearly state, as I have been for a nearly three years now, that depression is coming and governments can not stop it now:

http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=2798&t=3&scode=011415

He appeared on the Money Show earlier this year, but did not predict a depression then; however, he more accurately than me he did advise all to sell all types of assets and buy only short term bonds back then. He explains his POV in the short video.

My error was thinking people would realize that the US paper was not really worth much - China could destroy it anytime they chose, etc. and thus I expected the dollar would fall in value.

It will fall in value, but I am not very good at timing. When it falls, probably in a "run" on the dollar, the nominal value of stocks (in dollar terms) will dramatically rise, but that rise will not cover the loss of purchasing power of the dollar.

Few realize still what a disaster for the world GWB's weak enforcement of SEC etc regulations and tax rebates for the already rich to invest in China and other high return areas was. The modern factories those investments made will keep closing US and EU factories. - This destruction of the purchasing power and wealth of the middle class is a vicious cycle, ending in depression and in EU, with luck, only a little social violence.

In the US, too many have guns to avoid a significant amount of that as hungry mobs seek food stored in suburban basements. - This I also noted some years ago and it is become ever more certain.

 

You've been singing the same old tired gloom-and-doom song about the U.S. for years, Billy. It's never, ever going to become as bad you predict (want?) it to be. "Guns and hungry mobs?" Wow - you've finally crossed the line into pure insanity!!!!! Sure, things will become tougher before they get better - but that bit is pure nonsense!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:bugeye: (Have you been dating S.A.M.on the side? You're starting to sound a lot like her - which would be a compliment to nobody!)