How low will the Dow Go?

its like watching a game of limbo "how low can you go" before you crash onto the floor

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

To those who voted 1000+
I voted 9000+, so I'm already wrong.
I think you are being a bit pessimistic, but you could turn out to be right.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

What this thread is missing is an award. I suggest Asguard treat the winner and the 100runner-ups to a party at his house...since he is the one with all the money.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Dow dropped into 7000s on opening.
Sorry 8000ers. Youre out!
On current levels t's now the worst week since 1933.

You are sitting pretty River Ape.
I can't believe that it is going to drop into the 6000s.

Prize if you win. Party time at Asguard's house.
Second prize. A weekend at Asguard's House (old joke)

 

I said 6000, but that is obviously too high, from how fast we've hit 8000. It's going to drop even lower(than 5000)! That means, the stock market is actually in free fall right now. I think killing short selling might have hurt this more than anything. We would have had one massive 2-3000 point sell off(in one day) and then a slow recovery, as many investors would have assumed that would be a good starting point from a correction.

Now everyone is in full panic. Many are realizing, what I already knew 3-4 years ago. It's a huge house of cards, it's all bullshit and nearly meaningless. Get a deal on some good scales. Barter system, here we come.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

 

It will be between 6000 and 3000 depending on the Asian markets. I would say 5000 is a safe bet.

 

You are right. Some stocks you might as well keep. If say Microsoft fails, GE fails, etc. Then everything is going to be worth shit anyway.

My guess is there is a general sell off by brokers and the like, so they can turn around and buy it back cheaper - thus own even more of the company. They are scumbags like that and one more reason the stock market is really just a swindle, no matter what company you are talking about.

 

I tapped it hard a decade ago and i lost interest with it after six years.

 

Yes. People need to realize that brokers look out for No. 1. If they could be sure what to invest in they would do it to the limit of their ability and then perhaps tell you. I recieve at least 20 free financial advise news letters daily. The greater the gain they "promisse" the less I bother to even skim them. Many I do not even open except occasionally. I do not discontinue them however, as what areas they are pitching is another piece of information to factor in. Occasionally, I am stimulated to think about their recomendations and if I find it has promise, I may invest, sort of inspite of them.

I am sorry for your mother. I would like to see some regulations that first defines "churnning an account" and then if that is done and the customer has less than when starting the account (when compared to say changes in the S&P 500) then ALL COMMISION SHOULD BE REFUNDED, with interest of 10 year Treasury bonds. Too many brokers are frauds, IMHO. I never use them for advice. I can think and see things coming better than most.

 

re Brokers:
It reminds me of what a horse racing gambler once said to a tipster who was trying to sell him a cast iron certainty:

"No thanks, I can find my own losers"

 

China began cutting its orders right after the olympics.

WERE investing in Brazil.

My point being Brazil is not insulated from the global condition and will be impacted much more than you project in your posts regarding Brazil. As far as explotation, those are your words not mine. I thought the cane cutting was going for Brazils energy independence? So its the brazilian business/government exploiting its own people?

Just the facts?

Big deal on your soybean harvest. It looks like that in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, etc every year, for as long as I can remember, and you just saw something like this? Good thing you were able to import american ideas and dump the donkey/horse/llama carts.

Reminds me of a tee-shirt... Tourists go home.. but leave your daughters.

So you admit it. Brazil is DEPENDENT on foreign investment of 'wait for it' foreign money. Not as insulated as you present I guess.

Now.

Weak companies are desperate. Others are foregoing using credit and paying in ... wow... CASH.

So your still facing a loss? Is that why you are promoting Invest in Brazil so furiously?

SAM pointed nothing out. As far as owing no debt? The reason we are seeing what we are with the markets and plunging values is directly due to debt. I am not a part of this particular problem. I dont want my money going to china so they can build factories. I dont want my money going to Brazil so they can chop down more of the amazon. The very cause of MOST of the USA problems is investing in foreign markets.

I will save my money and pay CASH for my stuff. The only things that should be bought on credit are the big things, such as homes but not without at least 20% down. I would not have purchased a home in the last 8 years because they were overvalued THEN.

Nothing in the last 8 years has convinced me I am better off owing the bank my future. You're parroting the same words the local investment/financial/mortgage companies did when they were desperate to keep cashing in. Better invest in Brazil now or your gonna pay more later.

 

To milkweed:

I will not reply in detail until you give a few numercial facts with reference support your claims/ opinions of the last post. I am growing tired of refuting your opinions with facts. What is it that China is reducing in its imports? What specifically and by how much? etc lets have some quantative information like I give you.

True during the olymics China did close some factories that were making air polution but not the ports so a small dip in inports may have occurred for that reason, but not because of economic problems. China is growing at least at 10% still. Like Brazil, China has lots of room to cut interest rates or obigated bank deposits (or raise them as it did five times last year to control the economy.) The US has at most a percent more it can cut rates and soon a huge inflation problem to fight with all the new money being made.

Can you say "stagflation" or "in-de-flation" ? If not, start practicing - you will need those terms soon.

 

Bonuses for some dealers this year will be bigger than ever.

Any dealer yesterday who realised that the initial fall in DOW market prices was due to a technical glitch, will have made his company a fortune.

Yesterday morning, for a short time only two stocks were open, and the market fell by 700 points in a short time.
Any dealer who was savvy enough, and who was buying while the others were selling will make a huge sum this year in bonuses.

The whole thing only took minutes.
Is that dealer worth his bonus or not?

 

He was worth the bonus if the dealers who lost money paid it -- but that, of course, is not what happens.
Dealers' bonuses arise from their good fortune in being able to gamble with other people's money -- and when everything in the system goes pear-shaped we all pay.

 

The economy is still here. Its not like many people have died off or infrastructure has been damaged by war. This massive stock sell off is nothing but mass hysteria. Its time to go garage sailing in the stock market.

 

There are still weasels appearing on the Money channels saying it's a good time to buy. Some of them will be the same weasels who were predicting Oil at $500 a barrel a couple of weeks ago.
Weasels I tells yer, Weasels!

Can anyone explain to me why Gold and Platinum aren't going through the roof? People are buying safes to put money into, but isn't Gold better.
You can get it out and count it, and it looks nice.

 

Just my POV, do not claim to know or be correct as too much psychology controlling:

Platinum has some nearly unique industral (and even medical) uses and there are NOT litterally tons of it sitting un-used in vaults as is the case for gold. Thus if I were to own one, it would be Platinum. If governments (main owner of gold in valuts) wanted to, they could dump gold and destroy it as an investment. Gold is very popular in China and India, almost an obligation at wedding time, even in the middle classes. I do not know (hope someone will tell) how much gold is litterally in the jewery of ladies (and men too) in India, but think it is a lot.

I do think it safer than dollars, but do not own any directly. I do have shares in NEM, world's largest producer of gold, and BVN but only a minor part of my holdings. Most in the US still is in TIPs, then in about 40 earily stage drug developers* and a little in ocean transport (dry bulk, not oil) dredging and in oil industry needs, especailly deep water drilling. I have not looked at my TIPs for a few months - they may be up but like every one else on paper I am hurting on most of the shares. One thing I did not consider, when tinking that there was so much risk already factored in to the early stage drug developers (2/3 or more will fail to ever get their drug to market) is that almost all need to raise capital to keep their pipelines progressing, and do the clinical tests. So despite the correct idea that the rich will buy the drugs they need even in depression, (and political action will force the tax payers to for the middle class at least) these early stage companies are hurting like everyone else.

Probably, the way thing are going, even Paulson is beginning to realize it is a bad idea to transfer money to the holders of toxic trash as they will not make loans with it. (Either they just hold it to improve their balance sheets or invest it in China or Dubai high rises and resorts etc. to gain more than in the US.) He is leaning towards the English plan. - I.e. buy equity or ownership, but with out some control that too may not work. My plan is better still as it helps the US economy, is cheaper, treats the cause, not the symptom, and will prevent repetition, not guarantee it soon repeats. (Paulson rewards the guilty. - I send some of them to jail as con-men and makers of world's greatest Ponzi scam - both against current laws.)

It is ironic but the Republicans have so screwed up the US economy that they now have no choice but to be the drivers of greatest govenment interventions in US history - making a big steps towards state socialism with government ownership of the banking and insurance industries.
--------------
*They are constantly coming to meetings to make their pitch for more funds. Many of these meeting are live on the internet. I have learned a lot - it is facinating all the Magic bullets that are being developed now. Even if I make no money on them, I will be happy to have been motivated to learn a whole new area for me. Understanding the details of cells, especially the selective transfer thru their walls and how what is attacthed to their walls controls them (plus how the information in DNA is used to make these cells and their selective wall and controll their inner activities) is the "physic" of this century - where it is at intellectually. Physics is not "dead" as it was thought to be at the start of the just past century, but it is not nearly as relivant to humans now as cell biology is.