How low will the Dow Go?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by joepistole, Oct 6, 2008.

?

How low will the Dow go before recovering?

Poll closed Feb 3, 2009.
  1. 9,000

    15.6%
  2. 8.000

    9.4%
  3. 7,000

    12.5%
  4. 6,000

    15.6%
  5. 5,000

    25.0%
  6. 4,000

    3.1%
  7. 3,000

    9.4%
  8. 2,000

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 1,000

    9.4%
  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,882
    I would be interested to know how low the knowledgable folks in Sciforums think the Dow will go before a recovery begins...gotta an opinion? I am thinking 8,000.
     
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  3. John99 Banned Banned

    Messages:
    22,046
    -2,000
     
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  5. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,882
    Stone Age revisited!
     
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  7. Baron Max Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,053
    The number doesn't matter as long as it doesn't stay there for long. The DOW goes up and down all the time, all day long. People who play the market consistently buy low and sell high ...or didn't you know that?

    A one day turn doesn't matter in the long run of things.

    Baron Max
     
  8. Read-Only Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,296
    It's already about as low as it's going to go. It will always yo-yo a LOT before it starts back on a steady rise which will most likely be after the first or second quarter of next year.
     
  9. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    33,264
    Here is a graph for the Dow Jones over 100 years. Notice that it has gone up and down many times. Notice also that for the last 30 years it has been up, way up.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  10. kmguru Staff Member

    Messages:
    11,757
    Going down...down...

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    Without trade deficit solution....it will keep going down....even though a lot of people will make a lot of money....from cheap imports...
     
  11. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    20,285
    I simply think that the fundamentals of the US economy are weak. Little to no investment in education, rotten disgusting inner cities, apathetic youth and the baby boomers trying to squeeze the last bit of sap out of the tree on their way out. I think it'll take a decade to fix the mess we're in. So, I'm guessing 3000
     
  12. 15ofthe19 35 year old virgin Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,588
    Japan lost a decade over this type of situation, so to answer the question: There's no way to know at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow at 8,000 on election day, and depending on how the market views the results, we could see a bear market that lasts several years.

    Bonds are looking better all the time right now.
     
  13. Read-Only Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,296
    The trade deficit is a TOTAL red herring with respect to the stock market. Sorry to point it out but your personal version of economics stinks worse than a 10-day-old fish.:bugeye:
     
  14. kmguru Staff Member

    Messages:
    11,757
    Never said trade deficit is responsible for stock market crash....you need to read more....

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  15. Read-Only Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    10,296
    I read just fine, thank you. I was commenting on this rather silly statement of yours: "Without trade deficit solution....it will keep going down.."
     
  16. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    Hi B.M. - It can if it is the "right day" at least for long time.

    Glad to see your still here. It was you who forced me to set definite date on my doom prediction do you remember back that far? (About three years ago.) Basically by trend line extension and noting that the baby boomers retiring would be significant and (might surge up in October to retire in Florida for the winter) and that the election would surely focus attention on the cost of GWB's wars, I picked 1Oct2008 as the earliest date for the run on the dollar to happen (and Oct2014 as the latest possible date) with quick (few months) transition into deep depression after that run.

    What do you think of my predictions now?

    On thread, I sure hope this was near the near term bottom. As businessmen with profits in Brazil have been selling (Main market down >5% today alone)* the dollar buys more than 1/3 more local money than only a two months ago (The US banks will not lend to them - they really have not any other choice if they must replace essential machine etc.) This and fact Aracruz had big hedge against continued fall of dollar (they sell for dollars paper pulp) which is well under water now and had to be marked to current market value for their 3Q08 report (but it is only a paper loss, which will probably be a profit in the 12 months still left on their hedge). Their ADR shares were badly beaten up (down 20% today alone when I bought.) and by 70% in last couple of months.

    ARA is very solid company and even in the depression people buy paper to wipe their asses. ARA is the worlds cheapest and may be the worlds largest producer of pulp So I bought a lot today at $18.18 / ADR share. Today and Friday I put almost a $100,000 bet that we are near the bottom - all into Brazilian ADRs (including VCP which is in the processes of taking over ARA.) and RIO (Vale do Rio Dolce) world’s largest exporter of enriched iron ore pellets. (Their huge open pit, fully owned, owned mine is essentially a pure Fe2O3 deposit.) My "I don't care if I lose it all" liquid reserves are nearly gone now. Hope I was not very much too soon.
    --------------
    *See recent posts of mine in “BRICK news” thread as to why this (and not the soundness of US economy) has forced the value of the dollar up in last couple of months – Most wrongly think dollar going up indicates growing US economic strength. – It actually is signaling exactly the opposite, IMHO. Namely US financial system is totally non-functional now, so if you need funds, you must get them from foreign financial sources that still work. (Selling there gives you local currency and converting it into dollars is what is making the demand for dollars, which is making them briefly more valuable than two months ago.)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 7, 2008
  17. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,882
    I am suprised that so many thing 9,000 will be the low.
     
  18. nietzschefan Thread Killer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    7,721
    I'm certain 6000 is the nearly true "value" of everything industrially. It might drop below that.
     
  19. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    20,285
    That's a worry... .... .... people who don't pay their gas bill are NOT going to pay their credit card bill for sure.


    ... many Asian's here are talking economic "tsunami" .... ... that means Chinese whispers are in full swing
     
  20. milkweed Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    1,654
    I am thinking somewhere in the 7,000 area.

    Looking back over the history, theres been an up up up turn for almost 30 years. Figuring in growth in other countries as a part, the rest is based on speculation.

    Speculation needs confidence that things will grow. Thats gone and will be gone for a while. Add in the losses and time to recoup them, combined with a stagnant growth period as the very consumers the speculators depend on pay down their debt and the obvious job loss.

    I wonder when the backlash starts as developing countries loose the gains and their people are hurting even worse. China as it gazes out over its idle factories as demand for extra products slumps.

    Lending money to poor people doesn't make you poor. Lending money poorly to rich people does:

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/162789

    Yes this is going to be a rough and slow recovery.
     
  21. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,882
    That is a very good explanation Milkweed...one that I don't think a lot of folks understand.
     
  22. Syzygys As a mother, I am telling you Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,671
    Incorrect. lending money to insolvent people or people with bad credit makes you poor...
     
  23. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    That, especially part I made bold, is simply not true. It is based on ill informed opinion. Here are some facts:
    From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2036536&postcount=26
    That posts has many more facts, such as Brazil has no dollar debt and $207 billion dollars of reserves and can pay off all its internal debt in 4 months of its GDP. Brazil is liquid energy self sufficient and recently discovered huge new oil field, is world’s largest food producer, especially grains, with largest cattle herd, and very rich in minerals (No 1 exporter of many) . See link to understanding why Brazil’s stock are also down. I.e. that it is the unavailability of loans in US forcing some desperate for cash to replace essential equipment etc. to now take their accumulated profits out of Brazil.

    As for China:
    Original From:
    http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/articles.asp?aid=GURU-15397&iid=GURU&scode=011415

    Indian and Russian stocks markets are also being depressed by the current panic as foreigners remove funds and some scared locals do too, but their real economies are rapidly growing. Russian advances built on oil and natural gas and Indians on democracy, IT, and better education and foreign capital influx. Chinese factories will be "humming" at near capacity for decades to met the internal demand and to make the payments for food stocks, energy, and raw materials it is obligated to in Africa and South America under long term contract it has signed for these supplies.

    SUMMARY: On this point, you could not be more wrong if you tried.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 8, 2008

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