How high can Bitcoin go?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Saint, Nov 7, 2017.

  1. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    You're confusing crypto-currency with the far simpler notion of virtual-currency.
    Virtual currency IS simply a currency. And it is centralised. The value is determined by the game company, with items having value depending on either what the game-makers state or on what the free-market within the game state. The exchange rate for fiat currency is determined by the game-producers, and is in effect a loyalty reward: play the game long enough, generate sufficient in-game wealth and be rewarded with a real coffee etc.
    This is entirely different to crypto-currency - other than the fact that they are both effectively classes of asset. But then so is a share, so is a book, so is anything that one places value in.

    Method of batter? Is that for doughnuts, or for fish?

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    Yes, Bitcoin is an asset that is being traded in exchange for illicit goods. But it is also being exchanged for legal goods. Until recently the Steam game platform accepted BTC, as do many other legitimate companies. Unfortunately the vastly changing valuation has meant that these companies struggle to keep up with setting an exchange rate so have likely stopped accepting. Steam have stopped as they were finding that the value of the Bitcoin was changing so quickly that the price was out of date in the time they had processed a transaction, so were constantly having to do refunds or additional charges etc.
    The one thing Bitcoin has over a fiat currency is anonymity - hence the trade in illegal goods.

    But crypto-currencies are not a scam per se. Bitcoin certainly isn't. The valuation may well be going through a bubble at the moment, but that doesn't make it a scam.
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  3. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Thank you Sarkus for the info.
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  5. Saint Valued Senior Member

    But how can you sell it to get back your money with profit?
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  7. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    The easiest way is to go through an exchange: upload your coins to the exchange (i.e. transfer from your offline wallet to an on-line wallet in the exchange), sell to someone else for money. Your coin gets transferred to their account, their money gets transferred to your account... and then you can take your money out of the exchange and into your normal bank account etc.
  8. Saint Valued Senior Member

    I am an novice:
    1. How to store your BTC offline? Which app to use in Android phone? Can I store it in my PC's hard drive?
    2. Which Forex broker platform can I sell my BTC? Can it be Coinbase or Bitpay? How to upload my coins to them?
    3. How to get my money+profit back to my bank account or Visa card?
  9. someguy1 Registered Senior Member

    Do it before everyone else does. In a crash, nobody will be able to get their money out of the exchanges. Coinbase, for example, the biggest American exchange, is either running a fraud or is hopelessly incompetent. They take over a week to accept a bank transfer and over three weeks to send money back to your bank account. One possibility is that they're poorly capitalized and using new cash deposits to fund withdrawals. Either that or they're so backed up and disorganized they're just as dangerous as if they're committing outright fraud. You can go to /r/coinbase on Reddit to read dozens of these types of stories and I can confirm them with my own personal experience. No customer support whatsoever, totally unresponsive. Just a matter of time before the lawsuits start.

    So bottom line, if you have money in an exchange I would suggest taking a small amount out, ten bucks say, and see how long it actually takes. And when you are planning to sell a significant amount, do it before everyone else does. When bitcoin crashes -- and it will, it has fatal technical and governance problems -- a lot of people are going to lose their money.
  10. someguy1 Registered Senior Member

    ps -- General advice for anyone new to cryptos. Plan to invest some time educating yourself. Cryptos are complicated. The technology is complicated. Just buying and selling and protecting your cryptos is complicated. Everything about the space is complete wild west right now. Unregulated, scammers everywhere, and there are many traps for the novice. Do not spend any money on cryptos that you can't afford to lose.

    If you missed out on being a bitcoin millionaire, don't worry. It's like missing the Netscape IPO in 1995. That was the first time the world realized there was money in the newfangled Internet. But it definitely wasn't the last time to make a lot of money. The Amazons and Facebooks and Googles of the crypto space are a few years out still. The space is very young. There are over 1300 altcoins. Most of them are scams but a few of them are genuinely clever engineering solutions to the many technical issues that blockchains have.

    So right now just start slow and educate yourself. Deposit ten bucks in Coinbase (I don't think they're really crooks, just overwhelmed and not handling it well) and buy some bitcoin. Then start reading. There will indeed be many fortunes to be made in the coming years. Right now educate yourself so you can make good judgments going forward.
  11. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    Did a little research...
    According to an article in Forbes by Jay Adkisson ( src )

    "What these folks don't realize is that they might as well just take their money to the nearest casino and drop it all on red for a single spin of the roulette wheel. They'll either win or lose, just as Bitcoin is either going to go up or down. And (but), at least the casino will pay if you win."
    Pure speculation, gambling. It has no under pinning value other than what other gamblers grant it.

    That the scam element is in the talking up the real value of a crypto currency when in fact it's real value is actually infinitesimally small.
    For example the only reason Bitcoin has any value what so ever is because there is an illusion that there are a limited number of them (21 million or so)
    and that there are a very few outlets to exchange them for goods or services. ( who also take the extreme risk associated)

    Yet when stacked up against the possible number of crypto currency units available now and in the future the value becomes almost zero. It is just a number afterall.
  12. Q-reeus Valued Senior Member

    Meanwhile, coming up fast from the rear.... Hashgraph!!
    (suggest starting around 8:40 mark unless guest speaker intros fascinates you)
    And many other YT vids on that topic show there.
    Assuming current crop of cryptos are inextricably wedded to Blockchain, the reign of such already-it-seems dinosaurs may be pretty short.

    Add to that the imo strong liklihood of pump'n'dump destabilizing of BC by BIg Money Banksters intent on getting their planned 'stable' alternative crypto(s) into the lead position down the track. Sitting on the sidelines as observer looks a whole lot safer and saner at least for the short term. However short or long that is.
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
  13. someguy1 Registered Senior Member

    Hashgraph is a product of a company that does permissioned ledgers. That is, the network is private, and assumed to be cooperating and not adversarial. It's not clear this technology would work on a public ledger since they have no proof of work or proof of stake. That's my understanding.

    IOTA is a non-blockchain solution that I like a lot. Optimized for the Internet of Things. That's the bad but inevitable idea where your lightbulbs will talk to your refrigerator while all the world's spies and hackers listen in.

    What is the value of paper currency? See Weimer republic, Zimbabwe, Venezuela. What backs the US dollar after trillions of dollars of Fed money printing?
  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    It's an interesting question and one not going to be answered in this thread alone.
    A USA dollar is IMO effectively a share note.
    It offers the owner a share in the wealth of the USA. (Assets, liabilities, investments, mineral deposits, history, culture, trade contracts etc) and consistency of purchasing power.
    If the USA over prints then the share value drops even though it may remain 1 dollar. (less purchasing power)
    The BitCoin offers the owner a share in what?
    As far as I can see Bitcoin offers a share in a limited number system that people are currently promoting heavily to prop up it's purely imaginary value to prevent huge losses after converting hard currency into a token of a number system with out material support.

    Even comparing the bolĂ­var fuerte (Venezuela) with Bitcoin is like comparing oranges and apples. Venezuela does have some assets to support it's currency even if the Venezuela finance system is lacking the degree of integrity that others have.

    I'll repeat what I wrote earlier that Bit coin is about:

    Pure speculation, gambling. It has no under pinning value other than what other gamblers grant it.
    ...and as yet I have no reason to change my position...
  15. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    This is a typical quote from someone who really doesn't understand the underlying technology. You can find such quotes from almost any hedge-fund manager, any investment fund manager, any banker etc who also doesn't what it is that the crypto-currency facilitates.

    Just as some things appear random because we don't understand the underlying workings, so Bitcoin etc might appear like a pure speculative gamble, with no inherent value, when they don't understand what is going on underneath.

    There are certainly more people who don't know the detail than do, and so more opinion will undoubtedly be from those who don't. Most will be saying that if you don't understand something then best steer clear. Others will say that it is just a gamble, but unless they can actually show that they understand what the technology is all about... why listen to an uninformed opinion?
    Try to research what the actual technology is, and get some opinions from those who do understand what it is. I'm not saying that they'll all say it's wonderful and a sure-thing. If they do they're are lying. But it will/should help you get a more balanced opinion.

    Noone is saying that Bitcoin is, say, backed by gold, or is all that useful as an actual currency yet. What people are currently speculating on is still very much the potential for it to be so. IF Bitcoin becomes more established and more widely accepted then those holding Bitcoins at the moment will be rather well off. BUT there are hurdles along the way to overcome. It needs to be able to scale (which it currently struggles with, and transactions are taking quite a long time to validate), and importantly it needs to become stable compared to fiat currencies so that people can have more faith in it as an actual currency etc. The more stable it is the more faith people have in it and the more people will start to use it. The more people that start to use it the more widespread it becomes and the more faith people have etc... and eventually, so the hope goes, it becomes just another currency, but one that allows anonymous transactions.

    Ultimately if you don't know much or anything about the tech then it will appear to be a pure gamble... and you should rightly treat it as such in your consideration of whether to "invest" or not.
    If you know more then you can start to have a more informed view of the risks. In my view it is still highly risky at present, but not a pure gamble any more than someone who gambles at the races after studying form: the better your understanding of the racehorses involved, the going, the distance etc, the more likely you are to pick the winner.

    But be careful of uninformed views masquerading as informed ones.
    Just because someone is an "expert" in stocks and shares does not make them an expert in the valuation of blockchain technology, even if the assets are traded in a similar manner.
  16. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    When you buy Bitcoin, the blockchain will effectively record a certain amount of bitcoin (BTC) as belonging to your unique address. This unique address is your "wallet". You can only access your wallet and move assets in or out of your wallet if you have passwords etc.
    There is no actual storing of assets (e.g. BTC) off-line. The location/address of all BTC everywhere is constantly maintained in the block-chain. As is the history of all transactions. That is why it gets increasingly large and more difficult to process.
    If your wallet is located at one of the exchanges then if the exchange gets hacked they might get your wallet's address but also your passwords etc, and thus could empty your wallet (i.e. move all BTC assigned to your wallet to their own wallet).
    The safest way to store your wallet's details is off-line - either electronically in an off-line device, or on paper and kept in a safe. Passwords should of course be kept separately.
    You can keep it on your PC, or on a phone etc, but these can be hacked just as any PC or phone can be. Also, if you lose your phone, or your HDD on your PC gets corrupted, you would lose your wallet's details and thus lose any BTC assigned to it.
    I format my HDD quite frequently and know I would accidentally wipe my wallet's details, so wouldn't store them on PC. And since I've lost a phone before, I wouldn't store it on that.
    There are a number of reputable brokers/exchanges, some better than others depending on your country, and each likely offering different costs for transacting. Some might be safer than others. Some might simply be an exchange (so facilitating customer to customer transactions) while others might (but I don't know for sure) allow you to sell/buy directly to the broker.
    As has been said, exchanges have different reputations as to how quickly you might be able to get at your money once you sell your BTC, and even selling might take longer than you would think it should. Also, be aware that some exchanges might "experience technical issues" if too many people want to sell BTC (e.g. if the price crashes too much). But there should be some good exchanges that have reasonable liquidity to handle that sort of thing, although they might charge slightly more.

    An alternative to buying BTC or Ethereum directly is to buy a legitimately traded and regulated fund that aims to track the value of the coins.
    There is one company in Sweden (XBT Provider AB) that has a fund to track Bitcoin and a fund to track Ethereum. So you could invest in these like you would invest in any other tracker fund etc. There may be others in the US, but I think Europe is slightly ahead in allowing regulated trading instruments.
    But if such exist then there should be any number of highly reputable companies that provide on-line share/fund dealing activity that make buying and selling so much easier and the actual transactions less risky (although the risk of the investment remains the same).

    The one downside is that the funds are treated like any other financial investment - so gains are subject to tax (in the UK at least) etc - and there is no anonymity. You're not buying the crypto-currency but a fund that aims to track the currency. (You invest in the fund, the fund buys the crypto-currency, so the fund's value will/should flutcuate with the value of the underlying crypto).

    But it is soooo much easier to do and the risk of getting hacked, losing your wallet, not getting paid when you sell etc, are all massively reduced - not to mention probably regulated under your country's financial regulations.

    So if you're not after anonymity, prepared to pay tax, and want far safer transactions, then I do recommend this route.
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    or any one that requires real value to underpin their purchases perhaps?
    Why would I as a consumer be interested in the underlying technology?
    Would you pay $10000 per coin just for the technology of it or for real purchasing power?
    When it comes to currency why buy a currency that has extremely limited purchasing power?
    Not only can I not buy goods and services generally with it, I can not even be certain of having the ability to exchange it for currency that does offer purchasing power?

    ...again I am not, as a consumer, interested in the technology of it... I am interested in only securing, maintaining or increasing the purchasing value of my moooneey!!!!

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    As an aside,
    The interesting thing about all this is that presently the world is moving towards a cashless system and cash is indeed becoming just a few digits on a computer file somewhere. However the values of those digits are still underpinned by the national value ( GDP, assets, historical performance etc etc)
    So still even with the loss of cash you are still owning shares in a nations financial value and not JUST the value granted to it by other gamblers.

    If you study how people play the money exchange markets, you would get a better and more informed opinion of Bitcoin.

    "Betting on the horses using a form guide" is more akin to FOREX where market history and national performance are seriously considered. BitCoin from a consumer perspective is a scam. One that has profited the original holders that used it to deal in illegal goods and services. They must be laughing at their reward...

    example: Some teenager who did hacking for BC collects a couple of hundred of them at about 100 each and now due to some marketing innovation they are worth in excess of 10k each... hee hee... what a hoot... If he was smart he would have already sold for hard currency to some sucker who thinks he can get better returns.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2018
  18. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    I think one of the main problems faced by holders of BC on the dark web was how to convert to cash.. well now we can see that not only have they managed to pseudo legitimize their currency of choice, they have even blown it's value out of the water...
  19. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

    QQ, if you have no view of the technology behind Bitcoin then, for you, there will never be any value in Bitcoin as you will be happy enough with fiat currencies. That's fine. But not seeing any worth in it for you is not the same as it therefore being a scam, or a pure gamble per se.

    The same is true of art. I, for one, see no intrinsic value in the brush-strokes of a painter, nor rarely in the original work itself. I value a piece of art simply in how it makes me feel. The Mona Lisa certainly isn't worth hundreds of millions of dollars to me. But as an investment it might be worth that, hoping that to someone else it appreciate in value.
    Is the art world therefore a scam, because the intrinsic value of a bit of canvas and some paints are being sold for astronomical sums? That an unmade bed can attract a small fortune? I have no interest in them, they are of no worth to me. But that doesn't make it a scam. It has worth to someone. That is the important thing.

    And at the moment people are speculating on just what that worth will ultimately be. It is a very risky bet at the moment, but anonymity within and decentralisation of a payment system does have value to some people, and maybe eventually to everyone.

    But to equate lack of interest in what it offers to it therefore being a scam, as you are doing... seems rather a naive position to take.
    And even if it does collapse and ultimately fail, that also wouldn't confirm it to have been a scam.
  20. someguy1 Registered Senior Member

    If you could point me to the relevant legal statute I'd be grateful.

    Actually ... you just made that up, right? It's a share of stock that gives its owner legal rights to a share of the corporation's profits and a vote at the annual meeting of the corporation. A dollar's intrinsic value is the paper it's printed on. A digital dollar, which most are these days, isn't intrinsically worth anything at all.

    I'd certainly stipulate that the US dollar is backed by the taxing authority and military power of the US government. That's a fact. Yet the dollar has lost, what's the stat, 98% or so of its purchasing power since the creation of the Fed in 1913.

    Bitcoin's not backed by anything. Its price is purely a function of people's belief in it. Just like the dollar, at the end of the day.
  21. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    uhm... more or less... although I am sure the idea has been on the table for eons in some form or another.
    Essentially it was a thought bubble that had the main goal of changing peoples attitudes to their money/nation relationship and to set up a system of income for all citizens, especially the people made redundant to the work force due to increases in the nations technological efficiency.
    To promote greater participation in the nations wealth maintenance and building.

    As you know the world is facing a major issue regarding gainful employment opportunities due to technological advances. The use of AI, robotics, for example, means that there is a need to develop a way to disperse the profits equitably.

    Simply changing the currency label from dollar to share would be a terrific start.
    Example: $
    10 usd would become $10 uss
    If I wanted profit earning shares in the USA economy I could buy USS using my AUS ( aud) and vice versa.

    any ways as thought bubbles go I reckon it's a dooozie

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  22. someguy1 Registered Senior Member

    So a dollar represents a share of the wars and the debt? In that case I'm buying bitcoin!
  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

    How would you handle the issue of workforce redundancy? Any ideas would be welcome...
    I don't think Bitcoin is going to help...especially if you are buying only as a protest...

    BTW what currency would you buy and value it with any how?

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