I would like to hear your opinion on how far will dollar fall? Is it possible to stop USA economic collapse, and if it is, how? Do those big international corporations have any interest to support falling US ecomony?
I have started seveal threads predicting this fall - now at 14 year low against the pound. This friday it will drop several percent more. Soon (2 or 3 years at most) rasing interest rates will not finance the US deficits as foreigners who now do so will recognize falling dollar is giving a negative return on their purchase of Treasury notes & bonds, in terms of purchasing power even with high teens interest rates. The only* solution for the US will then will be to run the presses at the Mint, 24/7 and forget about trying to control inflation. At that point dollar's purchasing power will be 20% of what it is today. Most of what I still have in dollar assets is now in inflation protected US bonds. More in ADRs as that also protects. ---------------------------------- *Should not make foreign wars etc, but US elected GWB so a reasonable solution was not taken. (See also thread: "How DUMB can US voters be?")
In a post of several months ago, which focused on the purchasing power of dollar in terms of commodities, I noted that if you had bought commodiities this a couple a years ago you your purchasing power for dollars by selling them now would have at least doubled. I have stared so many threads on this I am not sure, but perhaps that was in the thread with title somethink like: "Dow is NOT at all time high, dollar has dropped" (PS expect to see higher stock prices still by far, but that is not a very good form of protection. - ADRs are much better. - My ADR portfolio average has now nearly trippled and some have 600% gains.)
I have my funds in a Roth IRA, is that a good longterm investment for my retirement? I also use a 401K, but is that a good idea? Anyway the US dollar will continue to fall in value because the USA doesn't manufacter any goods, there isn't any reason to keep the value all that high if the nation produces nothing yet imports everything. The problem here is the US economy is built on a foundation that is flawed, and while other systems are equally limited the better would be to create an economy based not on currency but on acts. Thus if you are performing a function you will be provided a place to live, food, etc. When you want other stuff you get a 2nd job :-Z~
Buy Euros. Ruin the USA. The event is long overdue. Roll on the 2nd Civil War. Better they fight it out before the rest of the World is totally ruined.
The Euro masters do want a weak America, because Americans like to protect themselves, we may still like international borders, we export more Christian evangelism than any other country, by far, and we value the freedoms of speech and religion, which the Euro masters don't, so I too see the dollar dropping somemore. Rather miraculous that America has stayed this strong this long, despite the weak currency, wouldn't you say? Probably has to do with the fact that we are Israel's best friend.
I personally guess it will fall by 50%... Yes, it is. But it must start immediatly, before the debt is larger then 70% of the GDP. Well, 80% might be possible too... but it would be way to hard on americans... I guess they could move elsewhere... but the US market is pretty big. 80% of the world's wealth is concentrated in North America. So, obviously, most of their revenues would be from North America. So, yes, I think they would want to support the US economy...
How are Europeans handling the Islamic invasion of their land, do they feel safer than ever? And if America loses strength, will Europe feel and be safer?
American Depository Reciepts. I.e. stocks in foreign companies that are held, usually by a large NYC bank, for you and never delivered to you. For example, the water company of Sao Paulo (largest in world as covers the entire state and treats sewer flow also - a market growing now much faster than population as many citys are still not fully served.) has ADR with symbol SBS. I own quite a lot, bought at under US$5 less than four years ago, and it is now around US$30 / ADR share. If you look at the % gain on the Sao Paulo stock exchange it has only about 250%, (perhapse 300% - I do not deal there much as that would take the currency conversion hit.) not >600% up in these 4 years. This is because it now takes many more dollars to buy it, even locally, after converting to Brazilian Real. - Now you get only 2.15 Reals for a dollar, when I bought you got ~R$4 for the dollar. - I.e. I have been protected form the falling dollar and profited by the 250 to 300% rise in the local market. (Part of this local rise is caused by others with dollars now trying to get out of dollars as I did begining 4 years ago.) I stick to countries that publish their reports in English as I hope to do more than just protect against dollar losing it purchasing power by picking companies that will do well in their local market with out the "false" gain in dollars (I.e. get more dollars but they are not worth as much = "false gain." More on this at my thread "Stock Exchange is NOT at record high. - dollar has dropped.)
Hey, at least if the dollar falls, we will start getting our manufacturing jobs back! Woo-Hoooo! In-sourcing!
Not necessarily true, but surely will help exports. Many foreigners are so angry at US policy (perhaps I should say GWB's stupid policy) that they will buy higher priced goods in preference to US made ones. - My wife will not drink Coke, even if free at parties - I can not bring it in the house, so do drink it at parties!
Where does that come from? How come I hear this from Americans but never from anybody on the other side of the pond? What did I miss?
Sure it will. The poorer the country, the more they have to provide for themselves. What the out-source whiners never can grasp is that the fewer the manufacturing jobs, everything else being equal, the better that economy must be doing. What I don't get is why all the America-Haters pretend to be sad when they are relating their doom-and-gloom predictions. At least be intellectually honest and tell us how happy you are that things look bleak. Because you aren't fooling me one bit!
Unfortunately for your point, the Coke you're boycotting is not produced in America. It's produced in Brazil, and so it has no real effect on American jobs or exports. All you're doing is screwing over the Brazilians down the street who work out the local Coke factory. Which is unlikely to prove much of anything to George Bush. Moreover, consumer goods only account for around 15% of US exports, so global anti-American consumer sentiment (to the extent that it exists outside of rhetoric) does not have a big impact on American exports. Also, half of that 15% consists of medicines, which I can't see anyone foregoing in order to make a political point. Most of the stuff that America exports is industrial supplies, machine parts, airplanes, telecommunications equipment, computers, etc. In many of those categories, there is no real alternative to the American supply, even if you're willing to overpay (which 99.999% of people aren't). For example, Intel and AMD are your only real choices when it comes to PC processors.
Just because America has a large trade deficit doesn't mean America isn't producing anything. American exports total almost $1 Trillion per year, which is about the same as Germany (the #1 exporter). Also note that annual US exports exceed those of China by about 30%. This drives home the point that while China has lots of factories, they produce mainly cheap junk (toys, clothes). While America is building fewer factories, they produce much more valuable things (computer processors and other advanced electronics, airplanes, etc.). There's a tendency for people to think that America has been getting out of manufacturing, but this is a misconstrual of the decline in manufacturing *jobs*. As it happens, increased efficiency (robots, etc.) have more than made up for the decline in manufacturing employment. That is to say that, while America is employing fewer people in manufacturing jobs, the factories themselves are producing *more* than they ever have. And that's without counting US military production and exports.
It's quite selfish of me, but I hope it gets extremely bad, then next summer I'll be able to have a cheap trip to the states.
