Just saw this on the arXiv: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.09369.pdf RJBeery, I think you'll find it vindicating. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Basically, the authors calculate gravitational collapse with Hawking radiation (or "pre-Hawking" radiation) for a spherical dust shell and two simple cases of spherical dust ball that admit analytic solutions. For all three cases, they find that the collapsing dust approaches the Schwarzchild radius, then stalls out under time dilation as it evaporates; an event horizon never forms. Not published yet, but based on the format it looks like they're going for Physical Review Letters.