Has Tiangong 1 gone rogue ?

Discussion in 'Astronomy, Exobiology, & Cosmology' started by paddoboy, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    Has Tiangong 1 gone rogue
    by Morris Jones
    Sydney, Australia (SPX) Mar 30, 2016

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    Nobody will be able to say when or where it will come back. Nobody can really be sure if fragments will reach the surface of the Earth, whether it is land or sea.

    China's announcement in late March that telemetry to the Tiangong 1 space laboratory had ceased is disturbing. The language used in the original Xinhua story was vague, but strongly suggested that Tiangong 1 had malfunctioned. This analyst has waited more than a week for a correction, clarification, or resumption of telemetry to be announced by China. That hasn't happened. We can safely conclude that Tiangong 1 has truly fallen silent.

    Without telemetry, China will be unable to receive data from Tiangong's scientific instruments. More disturbingly, it seems highly probable that China will be unable to control the laboratory. Tiangong 1 is now a rogue spacecraft. That's no problem in the short term, but it could become a matter of concern when its orbit finally decays.
    more at link........................
     
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  3. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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  5. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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  7. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Lessons_from_Tiangong_1_999.html


    Lessons from Tiangong 1by Morris Jones for SpaceDailySydney, Australia (SPX) Apr 08, 2016
    The recent telemetry failure from China's Tiangong 1 space laboratory has lessons for the whole space community. This analyst has previously reported on the issue of Tiangong 1's eventual uncontrolled re-entry, which will happen at a time and a place that cannot be exactly predicted right now. Tiangong 1's return is another hard lesson in the broader issue of re-entering spacecraft. Putting it bluntly, the whole space community needs to take this problem more seriously before we experience real tragedy.
     
  8. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Experts_Fear_Chinese_Space_Station_Could_Crash_Into_Earth_999.html

    Experts Fear Chinese Space Station Could Crash Into Earth

    by Staff Writers
    Beijing (Sputnik) Jun 13, 2016

    extract:

    "It seems it may be much ado about nothing," TS Kelso of the Center for Space Standards and Innovation (CSSI) argued, citing a recent boost in Tiangong-1's orbit altitude. "That reboost put it higher than it had been any time prior to that in its mission."

    Still, if the Heavenly Palace is tumbling out of control, the results could be catastrophic.

    "It could be a real bad day if pieces of this came down in a populated area...but odds are, it will land in the ocean or in an unpopulated area," Dorman said
     
  9. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    It has finally been confirmed.

    http://www.space.com/34089-tiangong-1-fall-earth-2017.html
     
  10. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    Unless you, your home or your children's school is at the point where this thing decides to hit. It's certainly large enough that large fragments of it might reach the Earth's surface.

    Ideally, large orbiting objects like this, including the rocket boosters that put them up there, are deorbited so as to impact in the ocean somewhere. But that requires some degree of control over the object.
     
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  11. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    Reentry on Sunday, 18 Mar 2018 at 17:48 UTC is the latest. The forecast has dropped 10 days in 1 day so it could even be as early as later this year.

    http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=37820U
     
  12. Gawdzilla Sama Registered Senior Member

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    Space people are so controlling! Don't explode on launch. Don't burn up on re-entry. Etc. Sheesh.
     
  13. Walter L. Wagner Cosmic Truth Seeker Valued Senior Member

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    chance of getting hit on the head about the same as being hit by a meteorite, or thereabouts.
     
  14. Gawdzilla Sama Registered Senior Member

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    Seems to me they'd be equal, given the circumstances.
     
  15. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    So you think the amount of stuff falling from space has doubled (equal probability) since we started adding our own space junk into the mix?
     
  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Given that about 20,000 meteors bigger than 10 grams hit the Earth every year, and you get a big one (i.e. Tunguska or Chelyabinsk size) about once every 30 years, your odds of being hit by a meteor are way, way higher.
     
  17. Walter L. Wagner Cosmic Truth Seeker Valued Senior Member

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    most of the small ones never hit earth. the meteorites the size of the pieces of this satellite hitting earth are far fewer, but likely still larger in total number than the number of pieces of this satellite that will hit earth. i only roughly equated them to show it is small likelihood of being hit. there are actually extensive numbers of satellites that have done the same thing, and will continue to do so. this rogue satellite will simply be added to the list. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reentering_space_debris
     

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