Global warming is it really happening

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by some_guy01, Oct 5, 2001.

  1. odin Registered Senior Member

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  3. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Yes, and it could continue melting for another 7000 years or it could dramatically speed up depending upon the effects of global warming. The scientists don't know if there will be any effect from global warming.
     
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  5. Clockwood You Forgot Poland Registered Senior Member

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    There are allready several big effects. Longer growing seasons, higher treelines, and all habatats are moving polewards.
     
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  7. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Effects of the current melting of the West Antartic Ice Sheet?? Do you have any references to this?
     
  8. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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    The Coming Ice Age!

    Then, why all frost lines (as reported by the US. Dept. of Agriculture) have been moving SOUTH in Florida?. Planters used to grow oranges (citrus) as north as Jackonsville. The frost lines have moved <b>100 miles south</b> to Orlando.

    How do you explain the tremendous colds being experienced in the northern Hemisphere right now? China is currently breaking cold and snow records, but this is not being reported by the western press.  Had it been the other way around - warm events - the media would have been salivating about global warming.

    Take a look at these links (press news from China, Vietnam, etc): Here is how the Chinese <I>People's Daily</I> is reporting it
    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200301/03/eng20030103_109468.shtml<B> &quot;Yellow River Frozen along 1,211 Kilometers&quot;</b> “China's 5,400-km Yellow River has frozen along a course of about 1,211 kilometers so far this winter, according to sources with the Yellow River Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters”.

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200212/29/eng20021229_109243.shtml <B>“Snow Hits Northern Guangdong”</b> Snow has been falling in the northern mountain areas of south China's Guangdong Province over the past few days, a rare sight in these areas.

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200212/24/eng20021224_109001.shtml<B> “Heavy Snow in Beijing Spells Joy And Trouble&quot;”</b> As streams of pedestrians and vehicles inched along Beijing's streets Monday, China's capital city has been blanketed by falling snow for six days in a row -- its longest consecutive snowfall for the last 128 years.

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200212/27/eng20021227_109141.shtml<B> “Taklimakan Covered with Thick Snow&quot;”</b> Taklimakan, the largest desert in China and one of the largest moving ones in the world, has got a 14-cm deposit of snow due to consecutive snowing since December 18.

    <CENTER><font size="5" color="#ff0000"><b>Asia Freezes</b></font></CENTER>

    The freezing weather in China reported above has also spread far beyond China. Anomalous cold weather is also being reported in http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030102/ap_wo_en_po/as_wea_south_asia_cold_snap_1 <B>India</b>, where upwards of 250 people are reported to have died from weather related causes.”

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030101/wl_nm/weather_bangladesh_cold_dc_1 Bangladesh has seen 119 such deaths. Japan has seen disruptions to transport services including up to 2,000 people being stranded on trains.

    http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2002/12/29/188987 <B>Taiwan</b> has seen wintry weather sufficient to threaten native wild life.

    Even tropical http://www.vov.org.vn/2002_12_30/english/xahoi.htm#Snowfall hits northern mountain <B>Vietnam</b> has not been spared where a cold spell has hit northern Vietnam with average temperatures dropping sharply from 13 to 4 degrees Celsius.

    <B><CENTER><font size="5" color="#ff0000">Power Crisis in Northern Europe</B></font> (7 Jan 03) <br></CENTER>

    It seems the whole Northern Hemisphere is being swept up in a deep freeze stretching all the way from the USA to Japan to China, India, Bangladesh, Russia, eastern Europe, and now northern Europe. Those countries which were wise enough not to degrade their regular power sources for the new `green' sources are well placed to ride through this period.  However, some countries have been foolish enough not to maintain their traditional sources and these are now paying the penalty with insufficient power to meet consumer needs for heating and the prospect of massive electricity bills for consumers.

    http://www.helsinki-hs.net/news.asp?id=20030103IE12 <B>Finland</B> finds itself with a shortfall of about 10% on power, making up the difference with imported power from Sweden and Russia.   Pity about all those windmills with blades hanging limp just when you need them most.

    Norway is similarly hit.  No new national power plant has been built for 10 years or so because of environmental politics. Plans for two new natural gas plants were also ditched a few years ago. Production is now to low to keep up with demand in a normal year. 

    http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article.jhtml?articleID=466191<B> Two elderly Oslo residents</b> died after they were found in unheated apartments. 

    Also in Norway, http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article.jhtml?articleID=464802<B> electricity prices have risen three-fold in only a few months as demand-driven consumption is forcing up prices in a recently deregulated market.</B>

    What makes this problem all the more serious is that these countries have very long nights at this time of year, making the freezing cold virtually permanent with little relief from higher daytime temperatures.

    A word of advice to our Nordic friends.  Forget Kyoto.  Forget the green delusions.  Forget the UN doomsayers and their `consensus'.   Go build a few coal or gas power plants and put this nightmare behind you.  If `global warming' were that real, this would not be happening.
     
  9. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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    Getting colder, and colder... and colder

    Excerpts from the links provided above:

    <b>In Finland:</b> By contrast, the icebreakers are hard at work, since the seas around Finland have frozen over at a brisk rate, <b>roughly a month ahead of schedule.</b> Harbour icebreakers barely have time to turn around after clearing a fairway for incoming and outgoing vessels <b>before it has frozen up again.</B>

    http://www.helsinki-hs.net/news.asp?id=20030102IE4

    <b><font size=4 color=#ff0000>Cold, cold, cold: New Year comes in with record low temperatures</font></b>

    Finland is known in the wider world as a country of extreme cold, but we tend to shrug these matters off, knowing that the nation's infrastructure is built to withstand climatic extremes, and that it takes more than a dip in the mercury to stop the trains or prevent the snowploughs from keeping the roads clear.

    All this being said, the last few days have tested Finnish resolve, as record winter lows were reached in many places and district heating systems hiccupped, leaving several thousand people without warmth when they would sorely have needed it.
    The winter's unofficial record low temperature now stands at -40.3°C, posted on New Year's Eve in Toholampi, in Central Ostrobothnia. This narrowly defeated a reading in the Lapland ski resort of Salla on Monday night. We are nevertheless a good 10 degrees short of the all-time record of -51.5°C set in 1999.

    Things are unlikely to get much better very fast. An area of very cold air is going to remain over central and northern districts of the country until the other side of the coming weekend. Things will thaw out a little in the south of Finland, but conditions even down here will remain decidedly Arctic, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

    Curiously enough, the very far north of the country has not had it quite so bad. In Utsjoki (about as far as you can go without hitting Norway and the Arctic Ocean) on New Year's Day it was only -10°C, while Helsinki shivered around 15 degrees below this. The cold was compounded by a light northerly wind that reduced the real temperature by a further several degrees.

    Electricity consumption has naturally peaked with the cold spell. On New Year's Eve at around 6pm, the all-time Finnish record for consumption was reached, at 13,650 MW. There were no problems despite the large drain on the system, as power was imported from Russia and also from the joint-Nordic electricity market via Sweden and Norway.

    However, pipe breakages and faults in the district heating network led to thousands going without warm radiators and hot water in Kerava (just outside Helsinki), Oulu, and Rovaniemi. In Kerava the indoor temperature in several homes dipped to around 10°C on Tuesday evening. By Wednesday the problem at the local heating plant had been fixed and people could take off their fur coats once more.

    This morning, local train services in the Greater Helsinki area were also badly hit as people returned to work after the New Year's break. A number of trains were taken out of service in the early morning as the extreme cold interfered with hydraulic braking systems, and this caused widespread cancellations and gave commuters a chilly wait on platforms. By around 9 am, schedules were returning to normal.

    <b>The unusually early arrival</b> of severe winter conditions has also caused the icebreaker fleet to move fast. On Thursday a sixth icebreaker, the Botnica, will head out from Helsinki's Katajanokka for the Gulf of Finland, where it will join the Voima in keeping sea-lanes open. The ice in the northern part of the Gulf of Bothnia is already around 50cm thick, and Kontio has been up there shepherding merchant shipping since mid-November. She was joined recently by Otso, Urho, and Fennica.

    <b>Late News:</b> This winter's minimum temperature figure has been rewritten, with the town of Kuhmo (famed for its Chamber Music Festival) moving into the lead on Wednesday night with an impressive score of -41.3°C. This is of course still well short of our all-time low, and positively balmy when set alongside the world record of -89.2°C set at the Vostok Research Station in Antarctica one July day in 1983.

    Just to give some balance, Finland's record high dates from July 1914, when Turku enjoyed 35.9°C, and the January maximum belongs to Mariehamn in the Åland Islands, where the temperature crept up to +10.9°C in January 1973.
    --------------------------------
    Look up there: <b>highest temp in 1973,
    coldest: 1914</b>

    Where is global warming?
     
  10. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Re: Getting colder, and colder... and colder

    Now, now. If you're going to scan the news reports, you can also find a lot of news reports talking about record high temperatures in the last year (as recently as in the last month).

    http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=record high temperature 2002

    You haven't proven anything.
     
  11. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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  12. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Re: Re: Re: Getting colder, and colder... and colder

    Point was that anomalies fall in both directions. Just as record highs don't necessarily prove global warming, neither does record lows necessarily disprove it.

    The overall trend still appears to be up:

    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs/

    (and this data has been adjusted for UHI)
     
  13. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

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    Trend up?

    This is the IPCC temperature chart, as shown in its 2000 Report on climate change.
    <center>
    <img src=http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/images-2/giss2000.gif>
    </center>
    Nice upward trend! Now take a look at the US record (1880-1999):
    <center>
    <font color=red size=5><b>The U.S. Record</b></font>

    <img src=http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/images-2/usa-1999.gif>
    </center>
    This is the composite record from hundreds of weather stations in the 48 states of the contiguous USA., the early 1930s being the hottest years of the 20th century. This is completely at variance with the GISS global record shown above.

    Is the US record a better reflection of the global picture? Urbanisation has been more successfully corrected for in the US than in the rest of the world.

    The US has the best maintained network of weather stations in the world, and this must surely be a better representation of the global picture too. The US record also agrees with the satellites

    Judge yourself. Show me any warming trend.

    Then I'll show you a down trend from 1932 to 1999. Can you see it?
     
  14. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    I'm going to disappoint you a little here in that I am not going to disagree with you.

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    I'll note that both graphs were in the URL I posted. You should note that your second graph is (I think) a little out of date in that the data has been adjusted for homogeneity (Hansen, et.al., describe why here -- so much for your point on US data being a better reflection of the world

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    ). However, while the new data does show a slight warming trend since the 1970s, I don't think the difference is all that great and Hansen (et.al.) point to the need for further analysis (but you should probably look at their PDF paper). Both graphs now show a strong warming from 1880 to 1940, a cooling from 1940 to 1970, and a warming from 1970 to now (stronger globally than in the US).

    One note of disagreement. The US represents 2% of the world's surface, so local weather anomalies could be accounting for the differences and, thus, make it less of an indicator of what is going on worldwide. So, until we have more study, your second graph doesn't necessarily discount your first.

    Do you have a regional graph for Asia over the same time period?
     
  15. pumpkinsaren'torange Registered Senior Member

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    well, either that or El Nino is up to no good again...

    here in Iowa a typical january day is around 10-20 degrees. this past week we broke a record with a 65 degree high.
     
  16. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Re: More graphs

    Of course, I am not a climatologist to analyze this data and determine how significant each is. The problem with looking at individual items is that you can miss the forest through all the trees (

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    ). The Goddard Institute for Space Studies, though, produced the data and have analyzed the data. The results of their analysis is shown in this URL (note appendix 1 and 2). You can also click on the GIS map link on that page (under appendix 2) and try your own analysis.

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  17. hotsexyangelprincess WMD Registered Senior Member

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    I do believe that Global warming will happen, no matter how we try to stop it. I believe the solution is to find a way off this planet, and terraform Mars or some place like that. Change is Inevitable.:m:
     
  18. odin Registered Senior Member

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    and terraform Mars or some place like that

    Don't think you could that unless you could move Mars closer to the Sun.

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  19. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Or move (the equivalent of) the Sun closer to Mars. :bugeye:

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  20. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Why? As you're about to point out, solar radiation may been a part of the rise and fall in temperature over the last century. However, would the fall have been greater had there not been anthropogenic influences keeping it somewhat inflated? :bugeye:

    You'll note that the changes in the Pleistocene occurred over thousands of years. You'll also note that the CO2 concentration levels are quite a bit higher than they were during the Pleistocene (and the change occurred in a century). How quickly does the environment respond to the changes?

    http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/icecore.html

    Perhaps, but how much?

    http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/causes.htm#solarcause
     
  21. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Yeah, you went too deep ( :bugeye: ) here for me. Can you break it down better?

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  22. odin Registered Senior Member

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    Or move (the equivalent of) the Sun closer to Mars.

    & which do you think would be easer?

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  23. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    Moving the equivalent of the Sun to Mars, of course.

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    Remember, for the terraforming project, we'd only be talking about providing enough candle power to light up (a portion of) Mars -- not the whole solar system.

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