So, to help me better benefit from your grand education - world population is still rising quickly. Will that ever be a threat to life here? And your assumptions that I don't consider myself part of the problem are arrogant and wrong. I'm quite aware of the consumption patterns I have as well. And never proclaimed innocence. I'm willing however to suffer some cost and inconvienience to help encourage a society and the technology to allow us all to live more sustainably, yet still let us reap the benefits of technology.
You, of course – or his spirit has taken over you – he was kind of devilish. David Mayes is (or was) a sciforums member from Australia, probably Perth or Adelaide, that used this kind of arguments, syntax and use of (… ) for separating parts of his paragraphs. He is an ardent proponent of GHG theory that he claims to be UNDISPUTED (always in capital letters), a fervent admirer of IPCC and its scientists, and in his last posts he claimed to be the biggest genius on the face of the Earth, so sciforums members shouldn’t discuss with him on any grounds. He was funny and we miss him a lot because his posts sent us rolling to the floor with laughter. “My interest is in the scientific details of climatology and whether AGW is plausible, and IMO it is, and it is currently UNDISPUTABLE - So... show me SUPERIOR explanation and prediction … but of course the IPCC is a mega-peer-review process.” The above paragraph was written by you, hez7, and they look extremely similar to those sent by David Mayes.
Thanks for your complimentary remark on my presumed grand education – but sarcasm will not help your arguments. Population is no longer rising “quickly” as before. World’s population increase has reached a plateau and it seems it will stabilize around 10 billion by 2100, or so. As you know (I am just guessing about your knowledge) in developing countries the birth rates have been dropping constantly (because as they reach higher levels of affluence and higher living standards, their birth rates go down), while in developed countries, as those in the G7, birth rates are now on the negative side – they are losing “native” population, and the observed increase there is due to immigration from less rich countries. It has become clear now that the best contraceptive measure for birth control and reduction of birth rates is a high living standard, and richer countries are a undisputed example of that. Development means better living conditions, better environemtal conditions, better health conditions, better everything. The only thing that worsen with development is the "green's" neurosis and hate for industry and technology. So, population does not seem to be a problem, and doesn’t seem to present a threat to survival for the rest of us. As the threat to survival stems from the fear of dearth and famine, we should take a look into history and see how famines were omnipresent since the earliest days. I am interested in learning how do you see this subject of dearth and famines, and what parallelism can you make with present and future years. What will happen with mankind relating famines?
With our consumption patterns you don't think even 10 billion people is a problem? Yikes! I think you are very wrong about this, and I think unfortunately the next couple of generations are going to find this out in a big way. You thinking 10 billions folks is no problem makes this a pointless exercise. However, I'm sure that you are *certain* of your rightousness - so please, I'll bow out and allow you to soak in those juices of smug superiority stud. ;-)
Global warming won't be a "hoax" in 1,000,000,000 years from now.........Start stocking up now on your sunscreen and get some darker shades too, you'll need them by then if you're still around! Yob Atta
Not just me. Thousands of serious scientists think the same. I am not alone – as you are not alone in your thinking too, ie.: Paul Ehrlich, Lester Brown, and similar authors that history and reality have proven them utterly wrong. If you think so, I’ll be glad to hear your reasons for such a claim. <b>It is not</b>, of course, given present data, and statistics from the UN, FAO, WHO, World Bank, etc. Instead of bowing out, you should sink into some good information source and get a touch with the real world. Chickening out? How nice… an easy way out when you have no solid and sound arguments.
In one billion years or maybe a little sooner than that, the sun's diameter will have swelled to about the diameter of Mercury's orbit. After that it's all down hill. If you're still around enjoying those sunny earth temperatures of approx. 170/180 deg. F or hotter, we'd appreciate a daily weather update during the periods you're not applying sun screen.........10 billion people? Yob Atta
I suspect the irony of the above escapes you! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! You think this is such a subtle and debatable point that we must each scramble for sources? Huh? History and comparison with the current reality demonstrates right now how things are going with just 6.4 billion humans on the planet. This may already be too much long term. 10 billion people? Good grief, its amazing to me that you think this is no problem!
That’s a good starting point. Comparing what’s going on with 6.4 billion people with what went on when there were from 100 million to 2 billion. So let’s see a small and very incomplete summary of famines occurred in the past, according to Ralph Graves, in an article ttitled <b>“Fearful Famines of the Past”</b>, published in the <b>National Geographic Magazine</b>, issue of July 1917 – (long before the magazine had joined forces with the greens): <TABLE width="60%" border="2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4" bgcolor="#eeeeee" bordercolor="#ff0000"> <TR><TD align="center"><B>YEAR</B></TD><TD align="center"><B>COUNTRY</B></TD><TD align="center"><B>DEATH TOLL</B></TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>79-88 AD</B></TD><TD align="center">Rome</TD><TD align="center">100,000 (in one day)</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>168</B></TD><TD align="center">Rome</TD><TD align="center">5,000 daily</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>967-972 AD</B></TD><TD align="center">Fustat, Egypt</TD><TD align="center">500,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1025-1027 AD</B></TD><TD align="center">Cairo Egypt</TD><TD align="center">unknown</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1097</B></TD><TD align="center">Palestine</TD><TD align="center">100,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1218</B></TD><TD align="center">Damietta, Egypt</TD><TD align="center">70,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1235</B></TD><TD align="center"> London</TD><TD align="center">20,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1257-1259</B></TD><TD align="center">London</TD><TD align="center">50,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1333-1337</B></TD><TD align="center">Kian, China</TD><TD align="center">4,000,000 </TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1437-1439</B></TD><TD align="center">France</TD><TD align="center">---</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1600</B></TD><TD align="center">Russia</TD><TD align="center">500,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1769-1790</B></TD><TD align="center">Bengal India</TD><TD align="center">10,000,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1810-1811</B></TD><TD align="center">China</TD><TD align="center">see box below</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1846-1849</B></TD><TD align="center">China</TD><TD align="center">45,000,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1876-1890</B></TD><TD align="center">India</TD><TD align="center">5,200,000 </TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1845-1847</B></TD><TD align="center">Ireland</TD><TD align="center">300,000</TD></TR><TR><TD align="center"><B>1906-1910</B></TD><TD align="center">China</TD><TD align="center">10,000,000</TD></TR></TABLE> And here are some nice excerpts from the 23 page article that I am in the process of scanning and converting into a .pdf file – if someone is interested. <dir>“A peculiar feature of the famine and pestilence which visited the Roman province of Apulia about 188 AD was the amazing swarm of locusts which filled the air and covered the ground. Sicinius was dispatched with an army to try to battle with the winged pests. Thousand of peasants lay down to die on the highroads, and so dire was the pestilence which accompanied the famine that even the vultures refused to feed upon the fallen.” This scourge of starvation and pestilence extended as far west as England. During a brief period <b>5,000 people died daily in Rome</b>, where the only method of combating disease was the practice of “filling noses and ears with sweet-smelling ointments to keep out the contagion.” “Rich and poor suffered on equal terms. <b>Finally the desperate people resorted to revolting cannibalism</b>. Human flesh, which was sold in the open market, was obtained in the most horrible manner. Butchers concealed themselves behind latticed windows in the upper stories of houses which looked out upon busy thoroughfares. Letting down ropes to which were attached great meat hooks, these anglers for human flesh snared the unwary pedestrians, drew their shrieking victims through the air, and then prepared and cooked the food before presenting it for sale in the stalls on the street level.” “This seven years’ reversion to savagery induced by starvation had its companion period of suffering and degradation in the same country during the years 1201 and 1202. Whole quarters and villages became deserted during the famine which followed the low Nile of 1200 and 1201, according to chroniclers, who maintain that the starving populace ate human flesh habitually.” “The first of the Indian famines to attract widespread interest in the western world was the great catastrophe of 1769-1770, during which it is estimated that a <b>fully 15,000,000 souls, a full third of the population of Bengal, perished.</b> Like all the famines, it resulted from a failure of rain, supplemented by bad administration by the East India Company.” “The famines which occurred between 1780 to 1790 are worthy of note because it was during this period that the British began to organize relief for the destitute. In the twenty-two famines which occurred in India between 1770 and 1900, more than <b>15,000,000 natives perished,</b> and some of the most terrible years – notably the famine in southern India 1876-1878, when <b>5,200,000 starved to death</b> in British territory alone – have befallen the empire just when the government believed it had almost mastered the problem of relief. ”The four years between 1333 and 1337 were a period of unimagined suffering throughout China, and it is highly probable that it was in this era that the seeds of disaster were sown for Europe’s Black Death, which appeared in the following decade. Famine and pestilence laid the whole country waste. Excessive rains caused destructive flooding, and according to Chinese records <b>4,000,000 people perished from starvation</b> in the neighbourhood of Kiang alone.” “The four famines of 1810, 1811, 1846, and 1849 are said to have taken a toll of <b>not less than 45,000,000 lives.</b> In 1875-1878 four provinces in northern China, the district known as the “Garden of China,” suffered a failure of crops owing to lack of rain, in an area about the size or France, 9,000,000 people perished.”</dir> All these terrible dearth, shortage of food, etc, occurred when there were no more than 1 billion people on Earth. Do you seriously believe that these kind of famines and horrible episodes can ever happen again? Tell me of the last episode (not in the Russian Eastern front, 1943) where people had to eat their own children in order to survive, or sell themselves to slavery for being fed by their masters. What have been doing we human bipeds so well that famines are almost disappeared from the face of the planet? Present famines are found only in two or three countries in Africa as Chad, Ethiopia, etc, and are the result of cultural, political and economic (neocolonial) factors and problems rather than excess of population. In my next post I will give you some statistics from official sources as the UN, WHO, World bank, FAO, etc, that will show you (although they might not convince a blind that refuses to see), that world resources and food are far from being depleted, are far from being scarce, are going down in prices, and are increasing in supply. Hard to believe? You bet! Especially if you have reading too much Lester Brown’s Worldwatch Institute press releases and brochures.
Sounds like "Starvation" is the key in reaching the 10 billion mark! Better start stocking up on McDonalds hamburgers now in order to avoid the rush later on.......McDonald's signs say over "10 Billion Sold" Yob Atta
Nah! Forget hamburgers, either from Mcdonalds or Burger King. I always go for those juicy 2-inch tenderloin steaks we are so used here in Argentina. Or those crispy and delicious baby goats from the salt flats in northen Córdoba, my province. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Im sorry to burst your bubble but im not thee, i also do not come from Oz. Infact i havent even heard of this alleged member. Now where were we.....or have you given up Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
