Global Economy in 2008

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by kmguru, Jan 10, 2008.

  1. kmguru Staff Member

    Messages:
    11,757
    Here is an opinion by Senator Jim Webb

    Class Struggle
    American workers have a chance to be heard.

    BY JIM WEBB
    Wednesday, November 15, 2006 12:01 a.m.

    The most important--and unfortunately the least debated--issue in politics today is our society's steady drift toward a class-based system, the likes of which we have not seen since the 19th century. America's top tier has grown infinitely richer and more removed over the past 25 years. It is not unfair to say that they are literally living in a different country. Few among them send their children to public schools; fewer still send their loved ones to fight our wars. They own most of our stocks, making the stock market an unreliable indicator of the economic health of working people. The top 1% now takes in an astounding 16% of national income, up from 8% in 1980. The tax codes protect them, just as they protect corporate America, through a vast system of loopholes.
    Incestuous corporate boards regularly approve compensation packages for chief executives and others that are out of logic's range. As this newspaper has reported, the average CEO of a sizeable corporation makes more than $10 million a year, while the minimum wage for workers amounts to about $10,000 a year, and has not been raised in nearly a decade. When I graduated from college in the 1960s, the average CEO made 20 times what the average worker made. Today, that CEO makes 400 times as much.

    In the age of globalization and outsourcing, and with a vast underground labor pool from illegal immigration, the average American worker is seeing a different life and a troubling future. Trickle-down economics didn't happen. Despite the vaunted all-time highs of the stock market, wages and salaries are at all-time lows as a percentage of the national wealth. At the same time, medical costs have risen 73% in the last six years alone. Half of that increase comes from wage-earners' pockets rather than from insurance, and 47 million Americans have no medical insurance at all.

    Manufacturing jobs are disappearing. Many earned pension programs have collapsed in the wake of corporate "reorganization." And workers' ability to negotiate their futures has been eviscerated by the twin threats of modern corporate America: If they complain too loudly, their jobs might either be outsourced overseas or given to illegal immigrants.

    More...
     
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  3. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Thanks fo link. It is very good article but about a decade too late.

    GWB has screwed "Joe American" so much that dollar collapse, rapidly followed by worst ever depression, in US and EU is now unavoidable.

    I will vote for McCain as I do not want the first black president to get the blame for what GWB has made inevitable.
     
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  5. kmguru Staff Member

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  7. kmguru Staff Member

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    Searching for the naked truth

    The real problem with abusive short-selling


    FOR much of this financial crisis, America’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cut a pathetic figure, relegated to the sidelines as a hyperactive Federal Reserve tried a variety of creative measures to keep the system afloat. When the market watchdog finally did get in on the act, it was highly controversial: a temporary order restricting short-selling the shares of 19 financial firms deemed systemically important, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two troubled mortgage agencies.

    The ban on “naked” short-selling—the sale of shares one has not yet borrowed—was announced on July 15th and allowed to lapse on August 12th. Its stated aim was to aid “price discovery”, but many suspected it was a share-support operation. This week saw feverish analysis of what, exactly, it had achieved, and what role, if any, abusive short-selling and other forms of manipulation may have played in exacerbating banks’ woes.

    As regards the ban’s efficacy, arguments can be mustered on both sides, and no clear verdict has emerged. The value of the companies on the list rose sharply while it was in place, but the entire market was rallying. Short-sellers do not seem to have been deterred: for the nine American stocks on the list, short positions fell only slightly. And bid-ask spreads on the 19 stocks widened, suggesting the ban damaged market efficiency.

    More...
     
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Here is the complete list of Bloomberg's "Breaking News" links at 2:20PM EDT on 4Sept08:



    •Payrolls in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast; Jobless Rate at Five-Year High

    •Mortgage Foreclosures in U.S. Rise at Fastest Pace in Almost Three Decades

    •Oil Falls to Five-Month Low on Dollar Gain, Increase in U.S. Jobless Rate

    •HSBC's Green Predicts Financial Market Power Shift From New York to Asia

    •Nokia Slides the Most Since April After Forecasting a Drop in Market Share

    •Russian Stocks, Bonds Tumble; Central Bank Shores Up Ruble After Conflict

    •Continental Air Adds $15 Charge for First Checked Bag to Offset Fuel Costs

    •Highway Trust Fund Needs $8 Billion Bailout as U.S. Drivers Reduce Mileage

    •U.S. Navy Ship Arrives at Georgian Port Where Russian Soldiers Stationed

    It is too depressing to open any - I will have a beer and take a nap (who said I was dumb?)
     
  9. kmguru Staff Member

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  10. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    I did. It is a good start but only did quick skim. One thing I noticed is some statements about "services" do not apply to many services. I.e. accounting, etc. services easily go thru the internet - no need to do locally. Even reading routine X-rays taken in US is now sometimes done by Indian doctors who write the report, while US is asleep and deliver it back to US early the next day.

    Thus you need to separate "services" into those that must be local (cutting hair, flipping Big Macs, etc) from more knowledge based services, which can be non-local, via the internet.* This will tie in well with your basic point: US is converting to local service economy - Everyone will try to live by trading sex for haircuts etc.
    -----------------
    *One hears a lot about how "telecommuting will reduce oil demand, save the US" etc. - but that is nonsense. The telecommuter will be in India. Your link in post 126 shows many already are (and not just the "call center" workers.)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 13, 2008
  12. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    Like most economists, they find out the root cause, but not necessarily solutions. That requires engineering expertise. I sent this to the Obama campaign, let us see if they are smart enough to pick it up and run with it....
     
  13. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Here is the text of plan to stick Joe American with the toxic trash the banks had:

    Sec. 2. Purchases of Mortgage-Related Assets.

    (a) Authority to Purchase.
    The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States.
    {Billy T comment:
    This limitation to US institutions is "window dressing." UBS, etc. will just sell their trash to an American firm who will then dump it on Joe American. I.e. it is a Global bail out of the institutions who had no fear of risk, if a profit was to made. - And their courage has now been justified, by the "too big to fail" argument of a government that has been favoring the already rich and screwing Joe for 8 years. Who was in command, facilitating merger, deregulating, reducing corportate and capital gains taxes, etc. when they got so big? This captain will not go down with the ship - The Saudis have made him rich. (and well they should as GWB expanded oil demands and distracted Joe with the silly alcohol from corn idea that only increases Joe taxes and food cost without reducing the Saudi profits.)}


    (b) Necessary Actions.
    The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation:

    (1) appointing such employees as may be required to carry out the authorities in this Act and defining their duties;

    (2) entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code, without regard to any other
    provision of law regarding public contracts;

    (3) designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Government, and they shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Government as may be required of them;

    (4) establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase mortgage-related assets and issue obligations; and

    (5) issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities of this Act.

    ---------
    READ it all at:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aS7kIVsK77hs&refer=home

    Come on Joe lets give a cheer for GWB. Not only did he lower your salary's purchasing power, start needless war under his Bush Doctrine (strike first, and jail "enemies" without bothering the courts)* but GWB even gives you kids ~800 billion dollars more** of debt, while making historic transfer of your wealth to the rich, who really support him. That would be a "Bronx cheer" of course.
    *GWB knows who they are, trials not needed.
    ** George's "leaving Office" present, in addtion to having already doubled the national debt. With a trillion and a half, spent in 30 days, you can really grow "big government," creating new federal administration branch offices all over DC - that should help the local real estate market.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 20, 2008
  14. Michelle Redford Registered Member

    Messages:
    40
    Oh, the economy is struggling. Here in Europe all the stock markets are trading low, it's just not how it used to be. I assume it's got to do with the "dollar fall" and several other factors.
     
  15. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    Perhaps that is because, the Europeans followed American highly levaraged business model- Greed is contagious....

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  16. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Yes and wide spread:

    SUMMARY (of CEO miss-management rewards):

    $361.7 million – Country Wide.
    $11.6 million – Fanny May
    $12.9Million – Freddy Mac
    $42.3 million – Bear Sterns
    $186.5 million – Lehman Bros.
    $25.4 million – AIG
    $66.0 million – Merrill Lynch
    $36 million – Washington Mutual
    $16 million - Wachovia
    $35.6 million – Citigroup
    Total of only the CEOs at 10 financial firms = 794 million dollars, OR: About a hundred million each, on average, when side benefits like the corporate jet, private estate in the Caribbean* for meetings, etc. are included.
    ------------------------
    *You would think they could have at least sent Joe American a “Wish you were here.” post card now that they expect him to bail their firms out, instead of send them to jail. Why some (along with many others at lower levels in smaller firms) SHOULD go to Jail, see blue text at:
    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2028165&postcount=24
    ------------------------

    I forget the exact number, but Home Depot’s CEO of has the record with his golden parachute alone bringing the total for 11 men to more than a billion dollars, not counting the fringe benefits! Below are their names and a few details. See more at:
    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...msnnl_6009.13.5.47&REFCD=emmsnnl_6009.13.5.47

    A spike in bad loans hammered Countrywide in 2007, and in January it agreed to be purchased by Bank of America. CEO Mozilo's total take-home pay for 2005-07 was $361.7 million, most of it from options.

    Fannie Mae fueled the housing bubble by guaranteeing more and more risky loans and purchasing too much subprime debt. Shareholders got wiped out, and CEO Daniel Mudd still took home $11.6 million during the boom years of 2005-07, including $8.3 million in bonus pay.

    Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron did just fine. He took home $12.9 million from 2005-07, including $8 million in bonuses. But regulators did snag his golden parachute, worth an estimated $9.8 million.

    Bear Stearns CEO James Cayne cashed out millions in stock before the fall. He took home $42.3 million in his final three years on the job, 2005-07, including $29.8 million in bonus pay

    Lehman Bros. CEO Richard Fuld. walked away with $186.5 million from the prior three years. Fuld got most of that by cashing out options. But he also took home $36.8 million in bonus and incentive pay.

    AIG shareholders were virtually wiped out in the deal, but CEO Martin Sullivan, who got the boot in June, came out of it a multimillionaire. He raked in $25.4 million in take-home pay over three years.

    Merrill Lynch CEO Stan O'Neal left with $66 million for 2005-07, including $32.6 million in bonuses

    Under Kerry Killinger, Washington Mutual the largest U.S. savings and loan lost $19 billion but Killinger took home $36 million in 2005-07 including $11 million in bonus pay for his performance.

    Wachovia’s CEO G. Kennedy Thompson, who left in June, did well during his tenure. He took home $16 million during 2005-07, including $10 million in bonus pay.

    Citigroup wrote down > $57 billion in losses. CEO while the mess developed, Charles Prince, earned $35.6 million in bonus pay during the boom years of 2005-07 and took home a total of $41.5 million.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 30, 2008
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Here are Bloomberg's News Stories at 14:35 ET (too scary a list for me to open any):

    •GE Gets $3 Billion Buffett Investment, Plans $12 Billion Common Stock Sale
    •Manufacturing in U.S. Contracts at Faster Pace Since Last Recession in '01
    •Senate Votes Tonight on $700 Billion Bank Rescue; House May Decide Friday ....*
    •Lehman's Hedge-Fund Clients Left in Lurch as Prime-Brokerage Assets Frozen
    •Ford Motor's, Honda's September U.S. Auto Sales Tumble as Credit Tightens
    •Libor One-Month Rates Rise on Rescue Speculation; Overnight Costs Decline
    •Fed Emergency Rate-Cut Odds Rise as Index Signals Recession, Analysts Say
    •Bush, Paulson Lobby Industry, Congress in Bid to Salvage Bank Rescue Plan ......*
    •More American Troops Needed `Quickly' in Afghanistan, U.S. Commander Says

    --------------------
    *Bad news too as some version of Paulson's plan will probably pass and be signed into law, but it does not even consider the basic cause and only makes sure that this mess will all repeat again soon as none of those responsible for it are punished; they are rewarded instead. (See adjacent post 133 for some of the biggests winners)

    For what is needed (Five things) and Plan that might work, See:
    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2025940&postcount=1
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 1, 2008
  18. madanthonywayne Morning in America Registered Senior Member

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    12,461
    Is there any kind of sunset on all this additional power we're granting the government to deal with this crisis?
     
  19. Roman Banned Banned

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    11,560
    Are you kidding?
    Of course not! This is America!
    Granting additional power to the government in times of crises is what we do, despite their repeated demonstration that they won't give it up!

    Goddamn plebs.
     
  20. kmguru Staff Member

    Messages:
    11,757
    I had the following concept that no one is talking about. I checked this with several of my engineering firends who think my concept is sound. I would love to hear anyones view. I could be totally offbase....:bawl:

    Since 2001, America has been losing Trillions in economy and hence the financial crisis. No one is talking about it.

    YEAR.............Trade Deficit..............Equivalent loss in economy (Conservative)
    ...................Billions....................Billions (due to circulation of money)

    2001............... 410...............2460
    2002............... 470 ............2820
    2003............... 535.............3210
    2004...............651..............3906
    2005...............766..............4596
    2006...............817..............4902
    2007.............. 790..............4740

    This resulted in severe unemployment and underemployment. People are living from their 401(k) or parents savings.

    Yet no one talks about it
     
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    Here is oxford analyitic's list of global stress points (No. 1 is highest danger times probability) See:
    http://www.oxan.com/oxweb/GlobalStressPoints.aspx?
    for display of danger and probability separately on 2D plot.

    1 SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Internet collapse (x)
    2 CHINA/TAIWAN: Armed hostilities (x)
    3 US/IRAN: US strike on Iran (x)
    4 INTERNATIONAL: Human avian flu pandemic (x)
    5 UNITED STATES: Deep recession (x)
    6 INTERNATIONAL: Oil price collapse (x)
    7 INTERNATIONAL: Return to protectionism (x)
    8 INTERNATIONAL: Terrorist dirty bomb (x)
    9 LATIN AMERICA: Disruption to hydrocarbons sector (x)
    10 IRAQ: Collapse of state institutions (x)
    11 INTERNATIONAL: Chemical/biological attack (x)
    12 RUSSIA: Cross-border military aggression (x)
    13 NIGERIA: Unrest curtails onshore oil production (x)
    14 INDIA/PAKISTAN: Armed hostilities (x)
    15 PAKISTAN: State collapse (x)
    16 INTERNATIONAL: Commodity price bust (x)
    17 SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Increasing climate regulation (x)
    18 LEBANON: Civil war (x)
    19 ARGENTINA: New sovereign debt default (x)
    20 NORTH KOREA: Military conflict (x)
    21 HORN OF AFRICA: Return to 'hot' wars (x)
    22 CENTRAL ASIA: Risk of major disorder (x)
    23 BALKANS: Return to serious disruption (x)

    They do not even mention "dollar collapse" - That was interesting to me as that would be No1 in my list. - I must be "way outside the box" again; thinking the un-thinkable. :shrug:
     
  22. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    I sent the post no. 137 to both Obama and McCain Campaign. Replies:

    Obama:

    "Thank you for contacting us, and for sharing your policy ideas for Senator Obama and Senator Biden. Barack and Joe know well that Washington does not have a monopoly on good ideas, and neither do they. That is why it's important to hear from everyone, and we will take your solutions under consideration."

    McCain:

    No reply
     
  23. kmguru Staff Member

    Messages:
    11,757
    Interesting item:

    The growth of U.S. trade with China since China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001 has had a devastating effect on U.S. workers and the domestic economy. Between 2001 and 2007 2.3 million jobs were lost or displaced, including 366,000 in 2007 alone. New demographic research shows that, even when re-employed in non-traded industries, the 2.3 million workers displaced by the increase in China trade deficits in this period have lost an average $8,146 per worker/year. In 2007, these losses totalled $19.4 billion.1

    The impacts of the China trade deficit are not limited to its direct effects on the jobs and wages of those displaced. It is also critical to recognize that the indirect impact of trade on other workers is significant as well. Trade with less-developed countries has reduced the bargaining power of all workers in the U.S. economy who resemble the import-displaced in terms of education, credentials, and skills. Annual earnings for all workers without a four-year college degree are roughly $1,400 lower today because of this competition, and this group constitutes a large majority of the entire U.S. workforce (roughly 100 million workers or about 70% of all workers, Bivens (2008a)). China, with nearly 40% of our non-oil imports from less-developed countries, is a chief contributor to this wage pressure.

    http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/bp219
     

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