Exposure of Aliens

Discussion in 'Pseudoscience Archive' started by Awaranowski, Aug 15, 2002.

  1. Awaranowski Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    32
    I believe that aliens exist because it's plausible. But there's still doubt in my head. And I'm tired of having to ask myself, "Who do I listen to?" "Which person is out of their mind?" I'm tired of all of that shit. I want proof. What are they waiting for? When is it going to be known to everyone about their existence? I'm starting to think that maybe we should close the books. Maybe they exist, maybe they don't. But they're definitely not doing anything, so who cares?
     
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  3. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

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    835
    Wether aliens exist remains speculation, but we can make some qualified guesses. You can figure out an estimate on:

    1) How many stars are stable enough for life to evolve on their planets (if they have planets)?

    2) How many of these stars have planets?

    3) How many of those planets have a suitable size, composition and distance from their star?

    4) What are the chances that life actually will evolve on a suitable planet?

    5) What are the chances that life evolves into sentient beings?

    6) What are the chances that sentient beings will develope space travel?

    As you can see, some of these parameters will have to be pure guesswork, while we can get good estimates of others. I'll supply some fairly widely recognized answers that I personally also find sensible:

    1): Dont remember the figure, but we're talking hundres of millions.

    2): This has been in deep doubt, but recent discoveries seem to indicate that planet systems are common.

    3): If planet systems are commonplace, there is little reason to think that our Solar System in unique; probably a large fraction of planet systems hold at least one potentially life-bearing planet.

    4): As we have no sure knowledge of how life evolves, this is pure guesswork. The only thing we know is that it did evolve very efficiently on Earth.

    5): We are on a little more secure ground here; Earth has fostered several candidates for that (only we are left), and a number of other species have developed quite large brains, even if they are not commonly regarded as sentient beings.

    6): While it has been pointed out that intelligence does not necessarily imply technology, it seems logical that an intelligent species will get most benefit from their brain if they develope some level of technology. After having done this, the next challenge is to survive your own technology. We are not yet sure we'll accomplish this, but at least we seem to have avoided an all-out atomic war.

    Various people have then put actual figures into these answers, and calculated the likely number of spacefaring cultures in this galexy. Results range from 1 (us) to several million.

    Using normal common sense, a good guess is then something intermediate, say, thousands of such civilizations.

    So where are they? Why havent they landed? Well, unfortunately that calculation is much less optimistic. We dont know how long a spacefaring civilization usually exists, but its likely to be a short time on the galactic time-scale. Also, the galaxy is a large place. Distribute a few thousand civilizations evenly round the outer zones of it (the central parts are less likely to be inhabited, for a number of reasons), and they are going to be very far apart.

    To make a long story short: That a spacefaring civilization should happen to exist in the immidiate neighborhood in this particular window of time is not very likely.

    And about all these tales about aliens we hear: Applying simple common sense should tell most people that they dont work out.


    Hans
     
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  5. BobG Registered Senior Member

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    162
    Unless of course it may the case that deep space travel is impossible without taking thousands of years.

    If this was he case no matter how many alien civilisation there are they would not come into contact with us unless they happened to be pasing in a huge ship escaping from their exploding star
     
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  7. kmguru Staff Member

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    11,757
    You mean like a Noah type space ship....

    That could have happened many thousand years ago?....??

    My feeling is that we wcould have positive proof in the next thirty years or so when we develop more sophisticated long range communication capabities. Hubble telescope is the first...Plans are underway to build a bigger one. Same perhaps for radio telescope in space.

    I propose a one mile diameter mylar antenna in space....
     
  8. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

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    835
    When I talk about "meeting" aliens, that includes communication. I used the term space-faring; that was perhaps inexact, I rather mean space-exploring. We are right now exploring deep space, but we may never get there.

    Faster than light travelling remains dream stuff so far. Even if we have observed certain phenomenon that could indicate that some things can sometimes exeed lightspeed, it doesnt have to mean that a spaceship will be able to. Actually, at present we dont know of any technology that can take us even near lightspeed.

    Bleak, but that the way it is.

    Hans
     
  9. Xevious Truth Beyond Logic Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    964
    The problem with any estemate on how many planets contain life is that we keep asuming they evolve in Earth-like conditions. This is an entirely unwarrented assumption. It it just as unwarrented to say that only carbon-based life can exist. Silicon proves to be promising as a life form's foundation.

    Earth itself has some very strange creatures which prove that what we are looking for in a life enviornment may be in error. Around volcanic vents are microbes which feed of Silicon and they live at boiling temperature. Hearty bacteria such as blue-green algea live in Siberia in conditions very reminiscent of Martian permafrost.

    Consider this scenario: An Earthlike planet does evolve around a Blue Dwarf star. Of course, the Blue Dwarf (Type B White Dwarf Star, my example here) has a differnt amount of energy output than out Sun does. Suppose, that a planet forms at the proper distance to get the same energy amount that we get in our current orbit? Would anyone look at that given planet? Maybe not... we are looking for a Type G star, with a Brown Dwarf companion for such a given planet.

    How do we know that life as we know it is all their is? How do we know that life may well exist even here on Earth in some form we are simply not looking for? It's entirely supposition... but it's well founded. We as humans just don't have enough data about the universe to say that Earth-like conditions and chemestry are the only ones that produce life.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2002
  10. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

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    835
    Mmmm, true. We can speculate about life forms with a fundamentally different chemestry than Earth's life forms (which all, despite enormous variance, share the same basic chemestry). But it would add so much guesswork into the equations that its hardly worth pursuing.

    Also such aliens could be so different from us that we might not even be aware of each other, even if we met. And they might not be interested in Earth, but might consider Venus a really groovy place.

    Hans
     
  11. Xevious Truth Beyond Logic Registered Senior Member

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    964
    My point Hans, is that we don't even have enough data to GUESS anymore what to look for. We can find planets ANYWHERE, even around Pulsars. On Earth at least, we have found life EVERYWHERE, even in the most extreme conditions.

    If life can be everywhere, and planets can be anywhere, then life can be anywhere.
     
  12. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    835
    Agreed!

    Now about those aliens that people report her on earth: I dont find any of them very credible (putting it very mildly, heheh). Since we dont have any means of interplanetary (not to mention interstellar) travel, they must have come on their own spacecraft. Since they have the ability to build and use such demanding technology, we must assume they have an intelligence at least at par with ours, and while we can only guess at their cultureal, ethical, moral, and even logical way of thinking, we have to assume that their actions must make some sense.

    Also their physical appearance must make some anatomical sense.

    Now most of the things attributed to aliens dont make much sense.....

    Hans
     
  13. Xevious Truth Beyond Logic Registered Senior Member

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    964
    When I play with the idea of wether or not what UFOlogiest say Aliens do makes sense to me, I can always find some reason that fits.
     
  14. wet1 Wanderer Registered Senior Member

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    8,616
    Because we can not build interstellar craft, they must have technology beyond ours. Given that we might at some point develop such technology, it is in our future. Without some kind of major breakthrough in the sciences, at this point I would say it is a long ways away. How far is the question.

    This would put our "visitors" at being our elders (given that they also did not have some kind of breakthrough) and this means that in all likelyhood that they would have superior intelligence if this reasoning is sound.
     
  15. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    835
    Well, that was essentially what I said. But they need not be more intelligent than us, they may just have had technology for a longer time. The stone-age people were every bit as intelligent as us. A stone age man seing the things we can do might think "Ghee, those people must be supersmart!", but we aren't. Hehehe, actually some might argue that in a number of ways we are dumber

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    Xevious, we are running this discussion over several threads, heheh, but my argument is: It takes a rational intelligence to travel in space. This doesnt add up with some of the weird things that some people associate with aliens.

    Hans
     
  16. ripleofdeath Registered Senior Member

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    2,762
    heyya all

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    "who cares?" ... me!

    if you were an "alien" race (who is the real alien?)
    and you were using humans for experiments and breeding and food purposes and free labour and resources...
    blah blah blah
    and you also knew that most humans were soo pig-headed and
    dangerousely agresive toward anything different to their same colour/culture/nationality/bipedal apearance...
    "WHY THE HELL WOULD YOU ALLOW THEM TO GAIN SPACE TRAVEL OR KNOLEDGE CAPABLE TO DAMAGE YOUR OWN PLANET OF RACE OF BEINGS?"!!!
    WOULD BE KINDA SILLY!!!
    ya reckon?

    peace light
    truth love

    @_@
    \vvv/
     
  17. wet1 Wanderer Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    8,616
    What if extraterrestrial races are living among the human race? It seems to me that it is easy to do for beings of advanced races/species, to disguise as humans. It is very well possible they walk among us without most humans being aware of it.

    I couldn't care less about the way the races may travel to other planets, like Earth, for instance.

    I think it's rather arogant to think the human race is the only "thinking", "intelligent" race in the universes.

    It's completely illogical. I think it's a good possibility extraterrestrial races are walking Earth as long as Earth excists. And not only Earth.

    Maybe it is because humans think too much in a human way and are not capable to understand what kind of technologies and ways of mingling in the human race, extraterrestrial races have.

    It can very well be too, that extraterrestrial races are (descendants of) ancient travelers who onced lived on Earth and are keeping track of what is happening here.

    As in all races/species, there will be good and "evil" ones among them.

    Maybe your very neighbour is from extraterrestrial origin. How can you tell it is not so?

    Possibility too, is that the extraterrestrial races have another way of communication, like telepathy, to give it a human term.

    Just some thoughts...
     
  18. (Q) Encephaloid Martini Valued Senior Member

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    20,855
    Maybe your very neighbour is from extraterrestrial origin.

    Hmmm... that would explain the extra set of tentacles sticking out his backside... not to mention his wife's green skin.

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  19. wet1 Wanderer Registered Senior Member

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    8,616
    Further more, who says that extraterrestrials really are extraterrestrial?

    If the races are here on earth for as long as Earth excists, then, are it really extraterrestrials or just the same, terrestrial?

    Interplanetary travelers. Now isn't that a nice thought?

    That should make the human race half extraterrestrial, half terrestrial. 'Cause the interplanetary travelers mingled with mankind.

    Look back in history, all reports from ancient civilisations. They have all figures in their history who came down from the skies.

    Is that coincidence, superstition or made up stories? All made up, by the ancient inhabitants of Earth?

    In my book, coincidence does not excist. There are a lot of questions left open. Maybe the answers are very different than people nowadays think.

    Yes (Q), shoot...

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  20. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

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    835
    Banshee: Yes there could be extraterristials among us, although i personally think the chance is slim. Not because I dont think they are out there, but because of the apparent difficulties in interstellar travel. But if they have chosen to stay undetected among us, I'm sure they will have the knowledge and ability to do so quite effectively, and this does not, in my book, include messing with other people's cattle, making crop circles, abducting people, making dark alliances with corrupt governments, hovering in plain sight of big cities, and all the other things some people attribute to aliens.

    If aliens are here stealthily, they have a reason. The three most logical purposes would be:

    1) Research. In this case they will be extremely careful not to be detected, if for no other reason then not to influence their own observations (a very basic rule of research).

    2) They consider us cosmic vermin, but its against their ethics to wipe us out, so they just wanna make sure we stay on Earth. In this case we would probably see a surprising number of technical advances going awry due to sabotage. Well, it would explain Microsoft

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    .

    3) They want to help us along and prepare us for the day they can come forward and welome us into The Galactic Brotherhood. Well, I wish they would hurry ---

    Hans
     
  21. Xevious Truth Beyond Logic Registered Senior Member

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    964
    "It takes a rational intelligence to travel in space. This doesnt add up with some of the weird things that some people associate with aliens."

    We can take this one apart in a seperate thread if you want Hans. I think it would be worthwile...
     
  22. MRC_Hans Skeptic Registered Senior Member

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    835
    Youp! Where do we start?

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    Hans
     
  23. wet1 Wanderer Registered Senior Member

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    8,616
    Dear people, I did not say extraterrestrials are messing with cattle and the like. I merely posted what might be true.

    Sometimes the truth is so much different from what people think.

    Keep in mind that if there are extraterrestrials among us, they may very well have a totally different way of acting and "thinking".

    As long as it is not made clear how or what exactly, possibilities are open. I still think it is so that other races/species are walking down here on Earth.

    How and what I do not know exactly, That they are here and watching us, I am pretty sure of.

    I stay away from the abduction stories and the like.

    People are famous for telling things they cannot explain in the most colourful stories. A lot of it is mixed with their inner fears and mingles with their imagination. That is why it is so hard to make out what is truely a sighting or whatever, or what is only existing in people's imagination, just because they want to believe they saw something.

    I do not comment on cropcircles either, 'cause there are so many people who are making them.

    Still, a lot is unexplained and leaves questions.

    Tell me, why couldn't it be that there actually are interplanetary travelers. Just because humans can't grasp how it is done?

    There is more than meets the eye...

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