Endless QE

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Michael, Sep 14, 2012.

  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Ah, yes there is. Your ignorance is of economics is readily apparent. A simple Google search would have better informed you. It is obvious you have mindlessly accepted much of the demagogery flying around these days rather than investing in a little research, reason and well grounded knowledge.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment


    Using your “reasoning”, the US has had similar periods of currency appreciation over the course of the last few years. I guess you were so busy posting nonsense and beating on your chest you forgot to pay attention to the details and reality.

    I suggest you do some research before you post. As usual your claims are wrong. Swiss employment rate never attained 98% in the last decade –one of those minor detail thingys again.

    http://www.indexmundi.com/switzerland/unemployment_rate.html

    The following article was written during the US debt ceiling crisis of 2011 which was brought about by a Republican/Tea Party Congress.

    “Over the past few months, the Swiss franc has attracted considerable interest from traders and long term investors alike as concerns continue to mount over other major currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Thanks to this, the value of the franc has surged against the euro, up to all-time high levels. While many nations might welcome an increase in the value of their currencies, tiny Switzerland, which is surrounded on all sides by euro zone members, becomes increasingly uncompetitive when this happens, putting the fragile recovery taking place in the nation in jeopardy. As a result, the country’s central bank, the Swiss National Bank, has stepped up the rhetoric for interventions threatening to implement a peg of the currency against the euro for the foreseeable future. While many thought that this was just the bank blowing some hot air attempting to talk down the exchange rate, recent moves suggest that the SNB is extremely serious about capping the rise of the franc against the currencies of the nation’s major trading partners.

    In one of the most direct and confident statements issued by a central bank in quite sometime, the SNB declared that it was ‘aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc’ pronouncing that it will ‘no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20′. Additionally, in the press release the bank also said that it would ‘buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities’ in order to defend the peg and keep the franc at the key 1.20 level [see The Top Three Currency ETFs of 2011].

    With this sudden statement, investors immediately fled for the exits in the Swiss franc pushing the currency down by close to 10% against major currencies such as the dollar and the euro, helping to erase much of the franc’s appreciation in recent months. Yet, with that being said, it will certainly be a difficult task in order to keep the peg stable, especially if turmoil continues in the euro and that currency loses even more of its luster in the medium term. PIIGS countries are swimming in debt and with one year Greek government bonds approaching yields of 90%, a default or more extensive bailout measures will undoubtedly be required before the year is out.


    As a result, the SNB’s 2010 calendar year loss of $21 billion could easily be outdone by this year, especially if the peg becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. “In circumstances of a continued crisis in the euro-zone, we believe that the SNB may be required to purchase foreign currency of between $500 billion and $1 trillion,” Derek Halpenny, European head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo- Misubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, wrote to clients, suggesting that tiny Switzerland may have its hands full in this latest move by the SNB [Switzerland ETF: Exposure To Europe's Bright Spot]. - Eric Dutram on September 7, 2011 | ETFs Mentioned: FXF

    http://etfdb.com/2011/safe-haven-no-more-swiss-franc-etf-collapses-on-peg-to-euro/

    The Swiss central bank found it necessary to weaken its currency in order to protect Swiss jobs. The US central bank, the Fed, has a similar mandate.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2012
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  3. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    Thank you for your kind words Billy T. The future is full of possibilities and there is legitimate reason for concern. But the answers will not be found by throwing out lessons learned in the last century or resorting to 16th century economics as Michael and those like him are advocating.

    I think disaster is avoidable but only if we use reason to address our ills. If we resort to economic voodoo, as Michael, and others like him are advocating, or if we are not able to muster the political leadership needed to do what needs to be done, then all bets are off.

    The best way to solve our economic ills is with economic growth which is not consistent with Libertarian theology. One doesn’t have to look very far to see how well austerity has worked for Europe.
     
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  5. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    Well Joe, lets take a look on Obama Junior's own website: Obama for America and Obama Victory Fund: 2012 Volunteer Fundraisers

    You can scroll down to the HIGHEST most POLITICALLY CONNECTED donors in the $500,000+ category and there you can clearly see Jon the Con Corzine's name listed.

    Screenshot here: View attachment 5853



    "Get money out of politics...." what a total farce.
     
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  7. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    I hate to burst your bubble yet again Michael, but you need to read your references. Your reference refers to “fund raisers” not donors. There is a difference Michael. I suggest you find a dictionary. And yes, we do need to get money out of our political system and we need better informed voters. But until congress acts, money and the power it represents will continue to be a dominate force in our government.

    And you still have not proven your Corzine and Obama allegations.
     
  8. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    *bleat bleat* '.....let's get money out of politics' *bleat bleat*


    Meanwhile over here in the real world we can see Corzine listed in the TOP $500,000 plus category. See that '+' Joe? It means we have no idea how much money Jon the Con Corzine is hustling for Obama. But, we do know one thing. No one hustles hundred, maybe millions of dollars, without expecting to get something in return. Oh, and you know what's worse. That little turd is starting up a hedgefund now. Everyone figures with his great connections in CONgress and with the POTUS in his pocket - it's easy money to be had.

    Thank your hero Obama for that one Joe.


    And guess what Joe? There isn't ANYTHING anyone can do about it. What you don't seem to understand is our nation was founded in such a way as to limit the reach of money and power by reducing the role of government in our lives and ensuring there was no one Bank that controlled our money... and for Gods sake, making sure the money was NOT by fiat. ALL of these problems we have today. ALL OF THEM. Happened exactly the same way in the early 1800s. Expansion of credit. Over exuberance. Property bubble. Crash.

    This is a total repeat.

    You seem to think there's something unusual happening here. There's not. This is why Ron Paul called for a liquidation of the debt. He actually bothers to read economic history. BOTH sides. And what did we see? You and your minions out there calling him a racist kook. From Fox News to CNN to MSNBC that's all we heard. No discussion. The arguments are never set out and addressed. We're just told over and over the 'experts' know what's best and to shut up and do what we're told. Meanwhile the debt grows, inflation steals retiree's savings, University tuition skyrockets, 30 year Bonds are sold on the children of today's labor....even the god damn birth rate is dropping off as Americans return home to live with their parents instead of starting families. Did you know that? Yeah, first time ever in the USA.

    This could have been over and done with 5 years ago. Sure, there'd be no BJ Morgans or CitiGroup or GoldmanSux around, but there'd be other banks and we'd be in a recovery now. But no way. All we could hear was how it was going to "be the end of the world". Instead we're going to go down a path that will lead to decades of pain and suffering. Maybe it will end in War. Maybe it will lead to Japan style stagnation. Or maybe we'll start to actually see States leave the Union.


    However it does go, I'm hoping we both here and get the privilege of living through it, so that one of us has to eat a mouth full of crow

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  9. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    No what it means is you don’t read your own material as previously pointed out. Surprise Michael, both Republicans and Democrats raise money to advance their political objectives, which is how our system works. In my opinion it should be changed, as I have repeatedly stated. But until congress takes action and as long as Republicans control the Supreme Court, real reform is not likely. You cannot legitimately blame Obama for that one.


    That is all hogwash, not founded in reality.

    I have no clue as to what you might be referencing.

    And in calling for liquidation of the national debt, Paul is calling for double digit unemployment and another great depression. Paul knows nothing of economics. And despite your many attempts, you cannot defend what you mean by “big government” or any other aspect of your ideology in any meaningful way – and neither can your guru, Ron Paul.

    The people who benefit most from your ideology are those with money as also previously proven. Coincidentally, they are the ones who are funding your ideology. The people, who lose under your ideology, are the average working stiffs across the land.
     
  10. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    This one is worthy of starting a new thread when I have a bit more time.

    (a) No one is 'calling for' double digit unemployment. Would it have happened? Sure, and it'd be over and done with and we'd be in the clear doing well with a healthy vibrant economy. Instead we bailed out the top 1% and now have a debt leaden cesspit of an economy where the rich keep getting richer, the poor poorer and the politicians, somehow manage to get even filthier. AND it's here to stay Joe. You think blowing another property bubble next to the bond bubble is going to turn this sinking ship into the good-ship-lalipop? Get a clue!
    (b) If you bothered to look out your palace window princess, you may notice the double digit unemployment down below

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  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, but of the lessons both from history and from math is that 10% rate of debt increase is not cured by 2% rate of growth.
     
  12. Carcano Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,865
    Especially considering that the 2% growth would be wiped out by even a moderate reduction of deficit spending.

    There is no growth really...just a tidal wave of debt escalation fueled by money printing.
     
  13. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    That is all true, but you are twisting the knife I stuck in Joe.
     
  14. Carcano Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    6,865
    Joe is just a very passive compliant bystander, calmly repeating whatever propaganda he hears from official government announcements.

    The real target is the prevailing mentality of eternal deficit addiction...both the trade deficit and the deficit spending used to mask it.
     
  15. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Instead of name calling and repeating the nonsense you have heard or read on conspiracy web sites or from fringe sources and ignoring fact, evidence, reality and reason, and mindlessly beating on your chest, perhaps you should invest in a little education. But no you much prefer to continue your illogical and feckless line of thinking.

    And if one day you should find some courage, perhaps you should address the many holes and fallacies that have been pointed out in your previous posts.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    No one is calling for double digit unemployment? And in the next sentence, you say yes double digit unemployment would occur as a result of the polices your are advocating, but that it would be short and then magically we would have a healthier economy. So just because you don’t want to publicize the fact that the policies you are advocating would lead to double digit unemployment, it doesn’t mean you are not advocating same. It means you just don’t want a lot of people to know about it. The double digit unemployment remedy for the ills you perceive in our economy has no basis in fact or history as a proven solution to anything.

    Where is your evidence that the depression you would induce would be brief? It took more than a decade to recover from the effects of the last great depression. And full recovery was only brought about with massive government spending (e.g. WW II). And let us not forget that the last great global depression also brought about the economic instability that led to global fascism.

    Additionally, the top 1% was not bailed out as you have alleged. The American people were bailed out. If TARP were not passed, millions of banks, businesses, and governments would have collapsed across the land at great expense to individuals, ordinary Joes and Janes, and The United States government. Labor would be worth much less and owners of dollars - that means those of wealth - would be even more wealthy as their purchasing power would have been greatly expanded.

    The solution to our economic and fiscal issues is not to shoot ourselves in the head as you are advocating, but rather in old and proven solutions. The economic solutions/prescriptions you are advocating have been repeatedly discredited, most recently in Europe.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2012
  17. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    No it is not, nor is anyone advocating same. Much of the recent increase in debt was due to The Great Recession, two unfunded wars and massive tax reductions and unfunded special interest raids on our public coffers. You are assuming that the increase in debt and economic growth are both etched in stone and they are not. The wars will be over next year, the recession has ended and special intrest raids on public coffers have been mitigated. The fate of the George Junior tax cuts are under discussion. But at some point they have to end. Given U.S. taxes are at historic lows, there is plenty of room to increase taxes. As previously mentioned, there is real risk to our economy and the risks are more political than economic. One thing is certian, the solutions to our economic and fiscal ills will not be found in compounding them with the feckless economic policies Carcano and Michael are advocating.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2012
  18. pjdude1219 The biscuit has risen Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    16,479
    you do know that there was in fact a criminal investigation and they decided not to indict so your rants are just your normal anti left rants. in other words there is zero proof of your allegation got bored earlier to day. your crying about something that has been decided a while back and your not on the right side.
     
  19. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    20,285
    "Anti Left Rants"

    REALLY???

    Demanding that justice be served is now Anti-Left?

    This is yet another example of how far in bed the so-called "Progressives" have gotten with Wall Street. If you'd had bothered to read my posts I stated that no immunity was given and as long as they continue to stay close mouthed, and as long as the money $1.6 BILLION just *poof* disappeared the "Justice" Department says that without cooperation and without money, there's no crime.

    Sorry folks, we can't find a body, move along back to your stall and watch some brain-numbing dumb shit on TV.
    What a f*cking JOKE!


    Not that Justice matters to you Progressives. I mean, you were all on the MSNBC bandwaggon when they were referring to Ron Paul as a racist-kook. Never mind these same assholes cheered us right into Iraq. Yet the American public just keeps lapping up their shit. Down on their knees just sucking it. Logic, reason, thinking.... f*ck that shit. O.B.A.M.A.
    Hope and Change
    Hope and Change
    Hope and Change

    That's right, the entire American intellect can be squeezed into a 0.5 ms sound bite.

    NewYork Times

    *bleat bleat* let's get money out of polticis *bleat bleat* unless that money is for Jesus Christ Superstar *bleat bleat* he's purdy.....


    This reminds me of the Iran-Iraq contra affairs where no one remembers a thing. Or when Clinton shoves a cigar into his interns vagina while eating a pizza and no one stops and thinks.... wait a minute, maybe this idiot's a power hungry sociopath. William "The Great" Progressive Clinton. The jerk who helped precipitate the financial crises hell Americans are living through.... yet there he was center stage at the DMC basking in the Moo Moo Moo. Bush and Cheney, completely lie about WMD, kill hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, make Hell on Earth real for two countries and there they are, enjoying their millions.



    *bleat bleat* let's get money out of polticis *bleat bleat* Corzine the Con didn't do nutten *bleat bleat*
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    A reduction in aggregate spending regardless of wither the spending is from debt, government or private industry all results in a depression. That is the definition of a depression, a reduction in the sum of all spending/income.

    Your notion that somehow debt spending is different from any other kind of spending is one of those many strange and unsupported notions you hold.

    .
    You are confusing economic growth with fiscal and monetary policy. While it is true that fiscal and monetary policies can affect economic growth it does not follow that somehow economic growth is not real if it occurs as a result of debt. And it is an insult to any person of reason. You are confusing two very separate issues.

    Economic growth is economic growth regardless of who is spending or why or the source of the spent dollars. The sustainability of government deficit spending is a completely separate issue. As pointed out to you and to Billy T, government has many remedies to fix its debt and deficit ills. Wither government has the political capacity to do what needs to be done is another matter. But truly sovereign governments like Canada and The United States and unlike the EU can always manage their debt with taxation (fiscal policy) and monetary policy and need never become insolvent.


    When we have a depression or recession, as we just did, it is the result of a weakening in aggregate demand (i.e. people are not spending) caused by excessive leverage in private industry which resulted from deregulation. During those times, it is the role of government to restore confidence in markets and become the buyer of last resort. When market confidence has been restored and aggregate demand has been restored (i.e. full employment), government should then reduce its spending and pay down it’s debt. That is the Keynesian thingy.


    The “conservative” notion which you have reiterated here, that somehow spent borrowed money doesn’t count as economic growth/income, is just more and all too typical of the magical thinking we see from Libertarians and other so called conservatives and it reflects a profound ignorance of economics and business. The sustainability of debt is another issue. You are erroneously conflating the two separate issues.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    s
    Perhaps we need a new thread, with title something like: Is US debt payable by any means other than monetization of the debt? to debate this. I think that is what will happen not default; but that cure will be as bad as the disease at least for the the old trying to live on their savings and quite likely for all Americans if it ends the dollar´s reign as world´s reserve currency as it probably would. I.e. Americans would need to produce goods and services of value equal to their imports instead of paying for much of that with printed paper. Doing that in competition for sales with the modern factories that have been built in Asia would be impossible without drastic reduction in US living standards, IMHO.

    The only "plan" AFAIK that the Fed has suggested is to pay well for funds banks deposit with it as "excess reserves" instead of letting this not now circulating mountain of new fiat money suddenly surge into circulation as all realize they must spend it NOW for goods of lasting value as tomorrow they will be more expensive to buy. But Fed paying well, is just adding more money to the total money supply or "kicking the can down the road."

    Do you have some plan that will allow a reduction in the rapidly growing debt and its now* growing interest cost, which has any chance of getting even a 1/3 of Congress to support it? For example even if you totally zero the biggest item in the budget, military spending´s 0.9 trillion, you still need to find 600 million more to cut. (http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/budget_pie_gs.php)

    Don´t give me a load of verbal crap about "growing our way out the the problem" as most things in the budget are either legally (Social Security etc.) or effectively linked to cost of living index (like salaries). Plus there would be a huge increase in food stamps etc. for all the returning soldiers who can´t find jobs. In last four years a net of 4 million jobs have been lost while US population increased by 10 million and most who lost and then found a new job are earning much less in the "Big Mac" job than they did in the now closed factory job they had. "Growing our way out of this mess" is a popular joke for politicians to tell.

    I think the US is now like an airplane at sea more than 500 miles from the nearest land with only 300 miles of fuel in it tanks. Hope I´m wrong and you can tell me how US can reduce its now 1.5 trillion per year growing debts.

    * For a few years the total interest cost was shrinking as the Fed drove interest rates down to near zero, but those day are gone as just holding dollars under the mattress is better than buying bonds that do not pay back, even in nominal dollars, what you paid for them when they mature - i.e. negative rate bonds.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 25, 2012
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    Isn’t that what I said, it is a political issue not an economic issue. There are good proposals out there. What is lacking is political will. We have one political party, the Republican Party, who spent the dollars and is refusing to raise taxes to pay for their profligate spending.

    Instead of trying to replace empirical based economics with voodoo, the likes of Michael and Carcano would be better served addressing our real problems – our political problems - but then their multibillionaire financial backers (e.g. Koch brothers) wouldn’t like that much.

    That is what this election is about, going back to the profligate spending of the last decade (Republican solution) and massive wealth transfers to the most wealthy among us or going down the road of fiscal responsibility (Democratic solution).
     
  23. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    6,865
    And this why Joe endlessly repeats it ...his entire mind is constructed of soundbites culled from official white house propaganda.

    The only thing growing is the mountain of money digitally conjured into being to buy more treasury debt...so the government can buy more weapons and shell out more food stamps.
     

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